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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|TYSON HELTON|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
WESTERN KENTUCKY94 FPICUSA · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
28FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
29%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
41%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#960 BC / 14
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE28
PERFORMANCE28
TALENT40
CONTINUITY29
DEFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT41
CONTINUITY41
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
29MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 23HSAM HOUSTON—W 41-241111+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1AUG 30HNORTH ALABAMA—W 55-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ATOLEDO—L 21-45466565-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HNEVADA—W 31-16141515+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AMISSOURI STATE—W 27-2272121+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3ADELAWARE—W 27-2442020+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 14HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 6-25292121+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 21ALOUISIANA TECH—W 28-27164444+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 35-1661010+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 42-262077+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ALSU—L 10-13967777-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 34-37203333+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23ASOUTHERN MISS—W 27-16403131+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL46PERF55RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
MAVERICK MCIVORQB SEPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN
★3★38055%+31HELD
5
RODNEY TISDALE JR.QB SORET
★3—7645%+27—
11
TUCKER PARKSQB FRRET
★3—50%——
10
CALEB MCMICKLEQB JUPORTAL · HOUSTON
★3★300%—HELD
14
OWEN LOYQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB31TAL41PERF31RET32ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
MARVIS PARRISHRB SONO SNAPS
★3—9041%+11—
9
GEORGE HART IIIRB SERET
UNR—8230%-35—
29
LA'VELL WRIGHTRB SEPORTAL · AUSTIN PEAY
★3★37824%+13HELD
25
JADEN MCGILLRB SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE STATE
★3★3363%+27HELD
23
JALEN HAMPTONRB SERET
★3★3272%-4HELD
26
DONOVAN JONESRB FRRET
★2—00%——
27
COREY LANDERSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
28
JAVON MCMAHANRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
29
ADRION BOYDRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE53TAL48PERF54RET53ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
MATTHEW HENRYWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN ILLINOIS
UNR★39625%+30EMERGED
8
MOUSSA BARRYWR SERET
UNR—9021%-6—
81
NOAH MEYERSTE JURET
UNR★38950%+9EMERGED
2
K.D. HUTCHINSONWR SERET
★3—8618%+26—
5
JAIRUS MACKWR SENO SNAPS
★3—7412%+17—
4
CAMERON FLOWERSWR SORET
★3—7110%-15—
85
JACKSON WESTTE SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★3★36924%-23HELD
13
KELBY WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
UNR★3626%+25EMERGED
12
QUINCY BURROUGHSWR SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★3★3605%-48HELD
15
JUSTIN WOLFTE SEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
UNR★35913%—EMERGED
19
LOFTON HOWARDTE JURET
UNR—5611%——
13
ISAIAH MYERSWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
UNR★3301%+35EMERGED
18
MARVIN SIMSWR JURET
UNR—271%——
12
DAMARI JEFFERSONWR FRRET
UNR—241%——
88
AIDEN MILLERTE JURET
UNR—121%——
82
JALEEL WALKERWR SERET
UNR—110%——
89
CROSS NIMMOTE FRTRUE FR
★3—91%——
24
FONZY SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL50TAL32PERF50RET19n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL29TAL41PERF29RET30n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB28TAL27PERF28RET44n=7 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB49TAL48PERF49RET50n=11 · 6 METRICS · 64 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SHARLANDIIN STRANGEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
CROSS NIMMOHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BRANDON THOMASHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DYLAN VICKERSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
FONZY SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SEKOU PETERSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JORDAN DONALDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ELIJAH RUMPHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MARVIS PARRISHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JORDAN BERGERONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AVARION COLEAPP STATESUNR★3
MATTHEW HENRYWESTERN ILLINOISWRUNR★3
MAVERICK MCIVORABILENE CHRISTIANQB★3★3
JOSAIAH KNIGHTMISSISSIPPI STATEEDGE★3★3
AL-MA'HI ALICHARLOTTES★3★3
LA'VELL WRIGHTAUSTIN PEAYRB★3★3
ERIC ETIENNENORFOLK STATEDLUNR★3
JACKSON WESTFLORIDA STATETE★3★3
ISAIAH MYERSPURDUEWRUNR★3
KELBY WILLIAMSOLD DOMINIONWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT48 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVAN WIBBERLEYKENTUCKYOL★3★3
RODNEY NEWSOM JR.SOUTH CAROLINAOL★2★2
HOSEA WHEELERINDIANADLUNR★4
DEANTE MCCRAYFLORIDA STATEDL★3★3
DALLAS WALKER IVAUBURNDL★3★3
CADEN VELTKAMPFLORIDA ATLANTICQB★3★3
MARCUS PATTERSONKENNESAW STATEDLUNRUNR
EASTON MESSERFLORIDA ATLANTICWR★2★3
RIVER HELMSGEORGIA SOUTHERNTE★3★3
ALEXANDER FORDKENNESAW STATEDB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES85%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS84%13 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#96NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8437COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
4239 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST27% BACK27th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG27% BACK27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR19%19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST50%50th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE