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HOME›TEAMS›WESTERN MICHIGAN›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|TIM LESTER|—RECORD7-5|CONF—
WESTERN MICHIGAN96 FPIMAC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
39FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#760 BC / 21
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs6.0-6.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.2
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HSYRACUSE#15L 42-55617070-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8AMICHIGAN#14L 3-49959393-73BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HDELAWARE STATE—W 68-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 22AGEORGIA STATE—W 34-153144+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29AMIAMI (OH)—W 40-39353939-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 27-24143434-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13ABOWLING GREEN—W 42-352533+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 35-103466+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HTOLEDO—L 24-51424949-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HOHIO—L 14-59155959-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13ABALL STATE—L 41-422199+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 28-21373232-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET67NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KALEB ELEBYQB SORET
UNR—00%——
16
JON WASSINKQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
CHRIS RIDDLEQB JURET
UNR—00%——
10
GRIFFIN ALSTOTTQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET44NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
32
JAMAURI BOGANRB SERET
UNR—00%——
5
LEO EKWOGERB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
LEVANTE BELLAMYRB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
DAVON TUCKERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
PRINCE WALKERRB FRRET
★2—00%——
2
CHASE BROWNRB JURET
★2—00%——
RA'SEAN DAVIERB SERET
UNR—00%——
26
DEVAN BASSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
8
DAWSON SCHICKRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
JAYLEN HALLWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
GIOVANNI RICCITE SERET
UNR—00%——
1
ALEX MUSSATWR SERET
UNR—00%——
40
MITCH HEIMBUCHTE JURET
★2—00%——
38
ODELL MILLERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
1
DRAKE HARRISWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
KEISHAWN WATSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
TYRON ARNETTWR SERET
★3—00%——
1
JAYDEN REEDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
D'WAYNE ESKRIDGEWR SERET
★3—00%——
83
LUKE SANDERSTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
BRETT BORSKETE SERET
★3—00%——
19
WYATT RECTORTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
HUNTER BROERSMAWR SORET
★3—00%——
19
BRANDON HINDSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
JARET CURTISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
WADE BUCKMANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
80
RYAN LEZZERWR JUNO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
38
TANNER MATHIASTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
2
CAM COOPERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
LEE PAYTONTE —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
43
JACKSON KNIPPERTE —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANTWAN REEDHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KALEB ELEBYHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
DASHON BUSSELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ANTHONY TORRESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
PATRICK LUPROHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
WYATT RECTORHS RECRUITDUAL★3UNR
CHASE BROWNHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KENIH LOVELYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ANDRE CARTERHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
RONNIE BUFORDHS RECRUITWDE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DARIUS PHILLIPSNFL DRAFT R5WRUNR—
MALIK RUCKERNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
CALEB BAILEYNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
ANDRE TURNERNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
ASANTAY BROWNNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
ROBERT SPILLANENOT LISTEDLBUNR—
JARVION FRANKLINNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
DONNIE ERNSBERGERNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
WYATT PFEIFERNOT LISTEDLSUNR—
NICK MATICHNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#76NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8288COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR67%67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE