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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JOE MOORHEAD|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
AKRON124 FPIMAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
26FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1010 BC / 13
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.6
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT44
CONTINUITY60
DEFENSE21
PERFORMANCE21
TALENT36
CONTINUITY61
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
46MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AOHIO STATE#1L 6-5299100100-92BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7ARUTGERS—L 17-49586969-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HCOLGATE—W 31-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 21ASOUTH CAROLINA#19L 7-50859090-82BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AOHIO—L 10-30115353-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HBOWLING GREEN—L 20-27174343-35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 24-34312222-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 25-21211515-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HBUFFALO—L 30-4193535-27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 13ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 16-29103838-30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 19AKENT STATE—W 38-17900+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 26HTOLEDO—W 21-14374141-33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL18PERF41RET7ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
BEN FINLEYQB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★39192%-32HELD
12
TAHJ BULLOCKQB SERET
★3★3417%-34HELD
6
BRAYDEN ROGGOWQB SONO SNAPS
★3—40%——
18
JOHNNY BROOKHARTQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB46TAL64PERF46RET44ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
JORDON SIMMONSRB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★39055%+20HELD
22
CHARLES KELLOMRB JURET
UNR—8544%-3—
24
MARQUESE WILLIAMSRB JUPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★3192%—HELD
29
JORDAN CASTLEBERRYRB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
13
SEAN PATRICKRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
31
FAHRELL FREEMANRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
28
LUKE REEDRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE49TAL42PERF48RET62ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
ADRIAN NORTONWR SERET
★3★39633%+21HELD
88
JACOB NEWELLTE SERET
★3★39472%-22HELD
81
BOBBY GOLDENWR JURET
★3★38423%-6HELD
5
ISRAEL POLKWR JUPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
★3★37517%-41HELD
14
AHMARIAN GRANGERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★37214%+1HELD
85
CONNER CRAVAACKTE JURET
★3—6828%+27—
0
JARVIS RUSHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★36510%-43EMERGED
16
PAUL DAVISWR SORET
★3—382%——
23
MYLES WALKERWR SERET
★3—241%-56—
3
KYAN MASONWR SONO SNAPS
★3—211%——
87
MAX WHISNERTE SEPORTAL · MISSOURI
★3★370%—HELD
17
JUSTIN CAMPBELLWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
ISAIAH JONESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
7
ALEX ADAMSWR SERET
★4—00%-1—
86
GRANT GAINERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
5
PHAIZON WILSONWR JURET
★4★300%—FELL
83
KHALIL WITHERSPOONTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
30
AIDEN DIAZTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
9
JEAN LOUIS IIIWR JURET
★2—00%——
32
DOMINIC MONZWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL29TAL45PERF29RET60n=9 · 3 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DL36TAL26PERF36RET67n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB16TAL17PERF16RET81n=7 · 10 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB29TAL50PERF29RET46n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRISTEN GRAHAMHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
SEAN PATRICKHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KHALIL WITHERSPOONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KYAN MASONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ROOSEVELT MITCHELLHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ELIJAH DAVISHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAHVON FRAZIERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KEYVEON JOHNSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRAYDEN ROGGOWHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
RODRICK HUNTERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISRAEL POLKPITTSBURGHWR★3★3
MAX WHISNERMISSOURITE★3★3
ISSIAH WALKER JR.TEXAS STATEOTUNR★3
MARQUESE WILLIAMSMINNESOTARB★3★3
DAYMON DAVIDOREGONS★4★3
NATHAN KAPONGONEW HAMPSHIREDLUNR★3
PAUL LEWIS IIICORNELLCBUNR★3
JORDON SIMMONSMICHIGAN STATERB★3★3
BEN FINLEYCALIFORNIAQB★3★3
DAYNE SHORUCONNOT★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RONAN CHAMBERSAUBURNOL★3★3
NATE WILLIAMSSAN DIEGO STATEOL★2★3
COREY THOMAS JR.VIRGINIADB★3★3
KJ MARTINNC STATES★3UNR
TYSON DURANTWASHINGTON STATEDBUNR★3
JASAIAH GATHINGSUCONNWR★3★3
TONY GEORGESKENT STATEOL★2★3
JAHARON GRIFFINALCORN STATELBUNRUNR
JADEN WOODSEAST TENNESSEE STATEDB★2★2
CALEB ANDERSONALCORN STATETEUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS73%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#101NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8319COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1522 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST22% BACK22th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG22% BACK22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR60%60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR7%7th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST46%46th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE