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HOME›TEAMS›ARIZONA›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|JEDD FISCH|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
ARIZONA#11 AP 22 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
70FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-18IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#403 BC / 27
BC RATIO
18%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.5
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE94
PERFORMANCE94
TALENT62
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT65
CONTINUITY68
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
59MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HNORTHERN ARIZONA—W 38-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AMISSISSIPPI STATE#9L 24-31805454+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HUTEP—W 31-101888+79BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ASTANFORD—W 21-20741919+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HWASHINGTON#2L 24-31829191-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AUSC—L 41-43957878+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AWASHINGTON STATE—W 44-6466363+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HOREGON STATE—W 27-24618686+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HUCLA—W 27-10828080+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ACOLORADO—W 34-31753939+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HUTAH—W 42-18777777+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AARIZONA STATE—W 59-23692020+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28AOKLAHOMA#15W 38-24948888-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB73TAL77PERF73RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
NOAH FIFITAQB SERET
★3—8672%+38—
7
JAYDEN DE LAURAQB JURET
★3★36728%+21HELD
17
BRAYDEN DORMANQB FRTRUE FR
★4★400%—HELD
12
COLE TANNENBAUMQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB77TAL69PERF77RET100ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 25 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JONAH COLEMANRB SERET
★3★39242%+31HELD
6
MICHAEL WILEYRB SERET
★3—8129%+25—
8
DJ WILLIAMSRB SERET
★4—7119%-7—
2
RAYSHON LUKERB SERET
★4★35810%-10FELL
28
NAZAR BOMBATARB SERET
★2—00%——
21
STEVIE ROCKER JR.RB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE72TAL61PERF72RET79ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
TANNER MCLACHLANTE SERET
UNR—9978%+9—
4
TETAIROA MCMILLANWR JURET
★4—9934%+26—
2
JACOB COWINGWR SERET
★2—9832%+19—
5
MONTANA LEMONIOUS-CRAIGWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★49125%+9ROSE
84
KEYAN BURNETTTE SERET
★4★35813%-60FELL
11
MALACHI RILEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3525%-9HELD
85
ROBERTO MIRANDATE JURET
★3—519%——
0
KEVIN GREEN JR.WR JURET
★3★4473%—ROSE
6
AJ JONESWR SERET
★3★3331%—HELD
87
TYLER POWELLTE SERET
★3—141%——
0
DORIAN THOMASTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
11
CHRIS HUNTER IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
32
DERIC ENGLISHWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
15
CARLOS WILSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
19
JADEN CLARKWR JURET
UNR—00%——
9
JACKSON HOLMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
10
REX HAYNESWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
83
SAM GRACI-GLAZERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
86
JOHN HARTTE JURET
UNR—00%——
13
DEVIN HYATTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
JULIUS OLIVERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL61TAL59PERF61RET78n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL60TAL54PERF60RET52n=9 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB64TAL66PERF64RET48n=5 · 10 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DB56TAL70PERF56RET84n=11 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAYDEN DORMANHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
LEVITICUS SU'AHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
RAYMOND PULIDOHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
GENESIS SMITHHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MALACHI RILEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEVIN HYATTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ELIJHA PAYNEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CANYON MOSESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
EMMANUEL KARNLEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ARIAN PARISHHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MONTANA LEMONIOUS-CRAIGCOLORADOWR★3★4
JUSTIN FLOWEOREGONLB★5★4
BILL NORTONGEORGIADL★4★3
TAYLOR UPSHAWCOLORADOEDGE★3★3
DANIEL HEIMULIWASHINGTONLB★4★3
ORIN PATUCALIFORNIALB★3★3
TYLER MANOAUCLADL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRISTIAN ROLAND-WALLACEUSCCB★3★4
JERRY ROBERTS JR.MASSACHUSETTSLB★2UNR
JAXEN TURNERUNLVDB★3★3
KYON BARRSUSCDL★3★3
DORIAN SINGERUSCWR★3★4
PARIS SHANDLSUDE★3★4
KOLBE CAGESOUTHERN MISSLB★3★3
DION WILSON JR.NEW MEXICO STATEDL★3★3
ISAIAH RUTHERFORDMASSACHUSETTSDB★4★3
EVAN BRANCH-HAYNESBOWLING GREENDT★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES1%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS25%3 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#40NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8576COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
826 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST92% BACK92th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG92% BACK92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR78%78th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST84%84th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE