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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|BRENT BRENNAN|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
ARIZONA81 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
60FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#852 BC / 15
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-10.0
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT70
CONTINUITY56
DEFENSE46
PERFORMANCE46
TALENT63
CONTINUITY58
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNEW MEXICO—W 61-39151414+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HNORTHERN ARIZONA—W 22-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AKANSAS STATE—L 7-31548787-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AUTAH—W 23-10777171-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HTEXAS TECH—L 22-28736060-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ABYU#13L 19-41448888-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HCOLORADO#25L 7-34787171-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HWEST VIRGINIA—L 26-31615252-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AUCF—L 12-56775555-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HHOUSTON—W 27-3532424+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ATCU—L 28-49808282-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HARIZONA STATE#7L 7-49797474-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB50TAL74PERF50RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
NOAH FIFITAQB SERET
★3—9699%+27—
12
COLE TANNENBAUMQB SORET
UNR—111%——
17
BRAYDEN DORMANQB FRRET
★4★400%—HELD
14
ADAM DAMANTEQB JUPORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONA
★2★200%—HELD
14
MASON BRAYQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB52TAL83PERF52RET6ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
QUALI CONLEYRB SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★2★39567%+19ROSE
3
KEDRICK REESCANORB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★47224%-29HELD
2
RAYSHON LUKERB SERET
★4★3436%+30FELL
1
JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITTRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
UNR★3313%+27EMERGED
33
KAYDEN LUKEFB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★3191%—EMERGED
20
BRANDON JOHNSONRB SONO SNAPS
★3★391%—HELD
28
ANTHONY WILHITE IIRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE45TAL76PERF49RET52ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TETAIROA MCMILLANWR JURET
★4—9933%+31—
84
SAM OLSONTE SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★2★39046%+33ROSE
3
JEREMIAH PATTERSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★28521%-51EMERGED
11
CHRIS HUNTER IIIWR SERET
UNR—8320%-21—
5
MONTANA LEMONIOUS-CRAIGWR SERET
★3★47816%+6ROSE
84
KEYAN BURNETTTE SERET
★4★37628%-32FELL
85
ROBERTO MIRANDATE JURET
★3—6014%——
4
DEVIN HYATTWR JURET
★3★3607%-22HELD
87
TYLER POWELLTE SERET
★3—5511%——
11
MALACHI RILEYWR JURET
★3★3382%-31HELD
6
REYMELLO MURPHYWR SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
UNR★3271%+34EMERGED
5
REX HAYNESWR JURET
★3★3150%—HELD
1
ANTHONY GARCIAWR SEPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★3★300%—HELD
83
TYLER MUSTAINTE SERET
UNR—00%——
9
JACKSON HOLMANWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
19
JADEN CLARKWR JURET
UNR—00%——
7
DORIAN THOMASTE JURET
★3★400%—ROSE
DYLAN TAPLEYTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
SAM GRACI-GLAZERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
86
JOHN HARTTE JURET
UNR—00%——
18
BRANDON PHELPSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
JULIUS OLIVERWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
89
JORDAN MCCORD IIIWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL54TAL62PERF54RET59n=8 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL52TAL65PERF52RET47n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB46TAL52PERF46RET70n=5 · 11 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB44TAL67PERF44RET58n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEMOND WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JORDAN WASHINGTONHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
DYLAN TAPLEYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TURRAN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
STACY BEYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BRANDON PHELPSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
EDUWA OKUNDAYEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ADAM MOHAMMEDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MICHAEL LEVELLE WATKINSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JABARI MANNHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEDRICK REESCANOOLE MISSRB★4★4
JORDAN SHAWINDIANACB★3★3
JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITTNEW MEXICORBUNR★3
TRE SMITHSAN JOSÉ STATEEDGE★3★3
QUALI CONLEYSAN JOSÉ STATERB★2★3
KEVON DARTONSYRACUSEDLUNR★3
SAM OLSONSAN JOSÉ STATETE★2★3
MARQUIS GROVES-KILLEBREWLOUISVILLECB★4★3
CHUBBA MA'AEUC DAVISDLUNR★3
JONAH RODRIGUEZSAN DIEGO STATEOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EPHESIANS PRYSOCKWASHINGTONCB★4★4
BILL NORTONTEXASDL★4★3
TIAOALII SAVEATEXASDL★4★3
JONAH COLEMANWASHINGTONRB★3★3
JACOB RICH KONGAIKAARIZONA STATEDL★3UNR
RUSSELL DAVIS IIWASHINGTONEDGE★3★3
JOSEPH BORJONSAN DIEGO STATEOLUNR★3
DANIEL HEIMULIGEORGIA STATELB★4★3
DJ WARNELLINDIANADB★3UNR
ISAIAH TAYLORMIAMIDB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS61%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#85NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8613COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2431 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST54% BACK54th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG54% BACK54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR59%59th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST58%58th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE