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HOME›TEAMS›ARIZONA STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG 12|KENNY DILLINGHAM|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
ARIZONA STATE95 FPIB12 · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
69FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
36%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#441 BC / 19
BC RATIO
16%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.1
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT64
CONTINUITY36
DEFENSE58
PERFORMANCE58
TALENT69
CONTINUITY44
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
72MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HSOUTHERN UTAH—W 24-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HOKLAHOMA STATE#16L 15-27606969-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HFRESNO STATE—L 0-29445555-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HUSC—L 28-42957878-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ACALIFORNIA—L 21-24685050-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HCOLORADO—L 24-27753939-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AWASHINGTON#2L 7-15829191-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HWASHINGTON STATE—W 38-27466363-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AUTAH—L 3-55777777-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AUCLA—W 17-7828080-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HOREGON#6L 13-49939898-78BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HARIZONA#11L 23-59708787-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL30PERF65RET57ONE OWNERn=4 · 7 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
TRENTON BOURGUETQB SERET
UNR—7657%+32—
8
JADEN RASHADAQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★35920%-40FELL
9
DREW PYNEQB SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★35113%+6FELL
3
JACOB CONOVERQB SEPORTAL · BYU
★4★34510%-59FELL
7
HUNTER HERRERAQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB80TAL56PERF80RET9ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CAM SKATTEBORB SENO SNAPS
UNR—9660%+33—
25
DECARLOS BROOKSRB SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★36416%+14HELD
1
KYSON BROWNRB SENO SNAPS
★3—5912%+15—
28
TEVIN WHITERB SORET
★4—497%-57—
8
JAVEN JACOBSRB JURET
★3★3353%—HELD
9
GEORGE HART IIIRB SERET
UNR—212%-51—
44
SINJIN SCHMITTRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE61TAL69PERF58RET65ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
ELIJHAH BADGERWR SERET
★4★49226%+23HELD
1
XAVIER GUILLORYWR SEPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
★3★38120%-41HELD
6
GIOVANNI SANDERSWR SERET
UNR—7516%-11—
5
MELQUAN STOVALLWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★37516%-36HELD
12
JALIN CONYERSTE SERET
★4★37431%+24—
5
TROY OMEIREWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS
★4★37215%-1FELL
87
BRYCE PIERRETE SERET
UNR★37026%-6EMERGED
80
MESSIAH SWINSONTE SERET
★3—6623%-14—
85
RYAN MORGANTE JURET
★3—6420%——
1
ANDRE JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★3433%-21HELD
20
SHAWN CHARLESWR SERET
UNR—412%——
2
KALEB BLACKWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3321%—HELD
0
JORDYN TYSONWR JUPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★4281%+34ROSE
8
JAKE SMITHWR SEPORTAL · USC
★4★300%—FELL
4
PATRICK WILLIAMSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
89
JOSH HARTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
COBEN BOURGUETWR SERET
UNR—00%——
7
MAX WAREWR JURET
UNR—00%——
14
KORBIN HENDRIXWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
19
ALONZO BROWNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
24
COLESON ARENDSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
66
CONNOR LOPEZTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
JAMAL YOUNG IIWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
DEREK EUSEBIOWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL63TAL61PERF63RET26n=9 · 3 METRICS · 25 OBS
▸DL56TAL67PERF56RET12n=12 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB43TAL57PERF43RET46n=2 · 10 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DB60TAL74PERF60RET66n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JADEN RASHADAHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
ASHLEY WILLIAMS JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KORBIN HENDRIXHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KYRAN BOURDAHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LANDEN THOMASHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
SHAWN RUSSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KEONTEZ BRADLEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
K'VION THUNDERBIRDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOSIAH COXHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MONTANA WARRENHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDYN TYSONCOLORADOWR★3★4
AARON FROSTNEVADAOT★3★4
XAVIER GUILLORYIDAHO STATEWR★3★3
DASHAUN MALLORYMICHIGAN STATEDL★3★3
CLAYTON SMITHOKLAHOMAEDGE★4★3
BRAM WALDENOREGONOT★4★3
XAVION ALFORDUSCS★2★3
SHAMARI SIMMONSAUSTIN PEAYCBUNR★3
DREW PYNENOTRE DAMEQB★4★3
CAMERON SKATTEBOSACRAMENTO STATERBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT39 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BEN SCOTTNEBRASKAOL★3★3
JOE MOOREMISSOURIDEUNR★3
LADARIUS HENDERSONMICHIGANOL★3★4
DJ TAYLOR JR.CINCINNATIDB★3★3
EMORY JONESCINCINNATIQB★4★3
OMARR NORMAN-LOTTTENNESSEEDL★4★3
CONNOR SOELLEOREGONLB★3★3
DANIYEL NGATAWASHINGTONRB★4★3
JALIL RIVERA-HARVEYMARSHALLDLUNR★3
CAM JOHNSONNORTHWESTERNWR★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES88%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS48%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#44NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8663COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2829 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST41% BACK41th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG41% BACK41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR26%26th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE