SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ARKANSAS STATE›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|BUTCH JONES|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
ARKANSAS STATE115 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
38FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#780 BC / 28
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.4
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE26
PERFORMANCE26
TALENT36
CONTINUITY86
DEFENSE6
PERFORMANCE6
TALENT46
CONTINUITY69
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HCENTRAL ARKANSAS—W 34-31————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HTULSA—W 28-243355+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AMICHIGAN—L 18-28898181-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AIOWA STATE#15L 7-52518080-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 18-16325555-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12ATEXAS STATE—L 9-41286565-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ASOUTHERN MISS—W 44-283511+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HTROY—W 34-31182929-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ALOUISIANA—L 19-55316161-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AGEORGIA STATE—W 27-203488+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HUL MONROE—W 28-21699+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HOLD DOMINION—L 32-4072929-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26ABOWLING GREEN—W 38-31174343-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB56TAL45PERF56RET94ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JAYLEN RAYNORQB SERET
UNR★39794%+8EMERGED
7
TIMMY MCCLAINQB SEPORTAL · UCF
★3★3376%+27HELD
8
JOSH FLOWERSQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
19
TY MILLERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB44TAL25PERF45RET90ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
JA'QUEZ CROSSRB SERET
★3★39346%+2HELD
21
ZAK WALLACERB SERET
★2—9141%+1—
4
DEVIN SPENCERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—5910%-3—
20
MIKE SHARPE IIRB JURET
★3★3312%-53HELD
22
CEDRIC HAWKINSRB SORET
★3★2141%-30FELL
30
DAMON SISARB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
KAMERON THOMASRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE29TAL39PERF32RET92ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
MANNY STEVENSON JR.TE SERET
UNR—9962%-27—
7
COREY RUCKERWR SERET
★3★39933%+31HELD
9
COURTNEY JACKSONWR SERET
★3★39831%-6HELD
15
REAGAN EALYWR SERET
UNR—8621%-43—
11
ADAM JONESWR SERET
UNR—8090%+12—
11
TYLER LITTLETE SERET
★3—7321%-45—
3
HUNTER SUMMERSWR SEPORTAL · TULANE
★3★36911%-48HELD
2
MILLER MCCRUMBYTE SERET
★3★36616%-31HELD
81
REGINALD HARDEN JR.WR SEPORTAL · BENEDICT COLLEGE
UNR★3422%—EMERGED
4
MALIK HORNSBYWR JUPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★4★3311%—FELL
9
TENNEL BRYANTWR JURET
★3★3241%—HELD
2
CHAUNCY COBBWR SERET
★3—130%——
82
EZRA BURGESSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—111%——
17
JABARI BUSHTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—70%——
84
REED LINDERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
TAKARE LIPSCOMBWR SORET
★3—00%——
80
JADEN MILLINERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
CJ CAGEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
JAYVION SHOWERSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
28
CARTER SALZMANWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
JAMES REXROATTE SONO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
26
KIANDRE TERRYWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
44
BEN KARLSSONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
85
TJ STARKSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
SKYLER PURIFOYTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL42TAL33PERF42RET79n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL41TAL39PERF41RET50n=12 · 7 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB37TAL71PERF37RET57n=4 · 10 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DB51TAL44PERF51RET88n=8 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH FLOWERSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAYLEN BOARDLEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
AJ WALLACEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BRANDON BARNES JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KEMARI NIXHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOURDYN BURRUSSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
KYLE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
OBI UDOMHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BRADEN JACKSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ALEX MARTINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TIMMY MCCLAINUCFQB★3★3
GOLDIE LAWRENCEUCFWR★3★3
MARVIN HAM IICOLORADOLBUNR★3
JORDAN MAHONEYMASSACHUSETTSCB★2★3
MALIK HORNSBYTEXAS STATEWR★4★3
ADRIAN COLEFLORIDA INTERNATIONALCB★3★3
HUNTER SUMMERSTULANEWR★3★3
NOAH COLLINSGEORGIA TECHEDGE★3★3
LUCAS BANKSMISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATEDLUNR★3
KYLE TAYLORTARLETON STATELBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEYRON CRAWFORDAUBURNDE★3★3
KADAN LEWISSE LOUISIANADL★3★3
DENNARD FLOWERSMURRAY STATEDE★3★3
GAVIN POTTERTULSALB★3★3
TERION SUGICKMURRAY STATEDL★3★3
DONTE THOMPSONTEXAS STATELBUNR★3
JALEN CUNNINGHAMELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
SAMY JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
THURMAN GEATHERSELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
MELIQUE STRAKERELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES7%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS22%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#78NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8311COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1721 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST85% BACK85th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG85% BACK85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST88%88th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE