SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2025 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ARKANSAS STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|BUTCH JONES|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
ARKANSAS STATE101 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
30%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#750 BC / 24
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-2.9
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE10
PERFORMANCE10
TALENT31
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT43
CONTINUITY30
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HSOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE—W 42-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AARKANSAS—L 14-56846161-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HIOWA STATE—L 16-24497676-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AKENNESAW STATE—L 21-2843535-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AUL MONROE—L 16-281044+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HTEXAS STATE—W 31-30455353-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 14ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 15-14261616+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 34-24332424+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ATROY—W 23-10283636-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HSOUTHERN MISS—L 21-27403131-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20HLOUISIANA—L 30-34342323+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AAPP STATE—W 30-29431919+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 18HMISSOURI STATE—W 34-2872121+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL45PERF54RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JAYLEN RAYNORQB SERET
UNR★310099%+7EMERGED
8
JOSH FLOWERSQB FRRET
★3★3181%—HELD
6
ETHAN CRAWFORDQB SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
★3★300%-13HELD
26
JAX BROWNQB FRPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON
UNR★300%—EMERGED
13
TYRELL LEWISQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
18
JERRY HORNEQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB25TAL21PERF25RET49ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KENYON CLAYRB SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
★3★39650%-3HELD
4
DEVIN SPENCERRB JURET
★3—9545%+2—
11
JA'QUEZ CROSSRB SERET
★3★3363%+5HELD
22
CEDRIC HAWKINSRB SORET
★3★2262%-20FELL
33
KAMERON THOMASRB FRRET
UNR—241%——
27
JACOB WALKERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
NASIR ALLENRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
30
DAMON SISARB JURET
UNR—00%——
28
DEDE MURRAYRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%——
OMARION BROWNRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE36TAL39PERF40RET67ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
COREY RUCKERWR SERET
★3★310032%+27HELD
2
CHAUNCY COBBWR SERET
★3—9929%+7—
19
TYLER FORTENBERRYTE SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
UNR★39867%-18EMERGED
3
HUNTER SUMMERSWR SERET
★3★39624%-18HELD
10
JAYLEN BONELLIWR SEPORTAL · WAGNER
UNR★37411%-29EMERGED
17
JABARI BUSHTE JURET
★3—6013%-17—
11
TYLER LITTLETE SERET
★3—6013%-29—
82
EZRA BURGESSTE JURET
UNR—538%——
0
NANA BURRISWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UNR★3472%-19EMERGED
9
JORDAN SMARTWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
UNR★3412%+22EMERGED
85
TJ STARKSWR FRRET
UNR—110%——
21
QUAN LEEWR JUPORTAL · FLORIDA A&M
★2★400%—ROSE
20
AARON BLANCASWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
JJ HARRELLWR SOPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★300%—FELL
84
REED LINDERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
ROMEL STEVENSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
14
ANDRE FEASTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
AJ CARLSONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
81
JAVEON FRICKSTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
11
DEMARCCO BLANTONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
CALEB DONALDSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
88
ANDREW STATENTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
ANDREW JONESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL28PERF46RET71n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL63TAL35PERF63RET31n=11 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB33TAL34PERF33RET27n=5 · 9 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB44TAL54PERF44RET31n=8 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ROMEL STEVENSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RYAN REESEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MARQUIS WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RONNIE BLOSSOMHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
NIGEL NELSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
COURTNEY PATTERSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MIKE PETERSON JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TONY CARTER JR.HS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEMARCUS BAKERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SHAUN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JJ HARRELLMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★3
JAYLEN BONELLIWAGNERWRUNR★3
KOBE WILLIAMSMEMPHISIOL★3★3
ZURI MADISONARKANSASIOL★3★3
AARON ALEXANDERMICHIGAN STATELB★3★3
GAVIN RANSAWCOASTAL CAROLINADLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT39 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONTAY JOYNERMARYLANDDB★3★3
WEBSLEY ETIENNEFLORIDA INTERNATIONALDB★3★3
TIM HARDIMANTULSADLUNRUNR
IAN JEFFRIESPURDUEDL★3★3
MILLER MCCRUMBYSOUTH ALABAMATE★3★3
DEAUBRY HOODTARLETON STATEDB★3★3
TIMMY MCCLAINBETHUNE-COOKMANQB★3★3
REGINALD HARDEN JR.TARLETON STATEWRUNR★3
TENNEL BRYANTSOUTH DAKOTAWR★3★3
CHARLES WILLEKESELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES38%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS55%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#75NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8428COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3229 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST70% BACK70th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG70% BACK70th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR71%71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST31%31th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE