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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|HUGH FREEZE|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
AUBURN29 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
88FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1015 BC / 22
BC RATIO
53%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.4
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT84
CONTINUITY70
DEFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT81
CONTINUITY51
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HALABAMA A&M—W 73-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HCALIFORNIA—L 14-21665959+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HNEW MEXICO—W 45-19151414+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HARKANSAS—L 14-24828383-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HOKLAHOMA—L 21-279576760BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AGEORGIA#6L 13-31999696-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AMISSOURI#22L 17-21878686-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AKENTUCKY—W 24-10836666+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HVANDERBILT—L 7-17646262+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HUL MONROE—W 48-14699+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HTEXAS A&M—W 43-41969191-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AALABAMA#17L 14-281009898-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL74PERF41RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
PAYTON THORNEQB SERET
★3★38688%+12HELD
9
HANK BROWNQB SERET
★3★34810%+42HELD
11
WALKER WHITEQB FRTRUE FR
★4★3111%—FELL
11
HOLDEN GERINERQB SERET
★4★371%—FELL
19
JACKSON BARKLEYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
16
JOHN COLVINQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB79TAL71PERF79RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
JARQUEZ HUNTERRB SERET
★3—9571%+29—
6
DAMARI ALSTONRB SERET
★4★36518%0FELL
23
JEREMIAH COBBRB SERET
★4—5410%+13—
44
SEAN JACKSONRB JURET
UNR—91%+34—
35
JUSTIN JONESRB SERET
★2—00%——
21
BRIAN BATTIERB SERET
★3★300%+32HELD
26
CHRISTIAN BURNETTERB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
COLE GAMBLERB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE65TAL89PERF65RET41ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KEANDRE LAMBERT-SMITHWR SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★4★49429%+26HELD
13
RIVALDO FAIRWEATHERTE SERET
★3★49054%+23ROSE
8
CAM COLEMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★5★59025%+2HELD
11
MALCOLM SIMMONSWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★47516%+27HELD
14
ROBERT LEWISWR SEPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
★3★37415%+17HELD
86
LUKE DEALTE SERET
★3—7128%-39—
4
CAMDEN BROWNWR SERET
★3★3607%-12HELD
18
SAM JACKSON VWR SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★3504%—FELL
3
PERRY THOMPSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★4473%—HELD
88
MICAH RILEYTE SERET
★4★3457%—FELL
42
TATE JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—426%——
87
BRANDON FRAZIERTE SERET
★4—313%+27—
8
RICO WALKERTE SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★4★3242%—FELL
10
CALEB BURTON IIIWR SORET
★4★3231%+33FELL
6
BRYCE CAINWR SONO SNAPS
★4—211%——
28
CAMDEN ETHEREDGETE JURET
UNR—91%——
83
COLBY STAFFORDWR JURET
UNR—70%——
5
DYLAN GENTRYWR SONO SNAPS
★3★370%—HELD
28
GRANT HIDALGOTE JURET
UNR—40%——
40
HUNTER OUSLEYTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
ELI MORTONTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
JAKE KRUSEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
81
GREG MCCONICO JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
WILL UPTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
85
CAM KINGWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL56TAL80PERF56RET77n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL70TAL79PERF70RET58n=9 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB70TAL86PERF70RET50n=7 · 11 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸DB64TAL81PERF64RET44n=10 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAM COLEMANHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
PERRY THOMPSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
AMARIS WILLIAMSHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
DEMARCUS RIDDICKHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
JAMONTA WALLERHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
WALKER WHITEHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JOE PHILLIPSHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
BRYCE CAINHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
DEANDRE CARTERHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
MALCOLM SIMMONSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEANDRE LAMBERT-SMITHPENN STATEWR★4★4
RICO WALKERMARYLANDTE★4★4
ANTONIO KITEALABAMACB★4★3
PHILIP BLIDIINDIANADL★3★3
ROBERT LEWISGEORGIA STATEWR★3★3
PERCY LEWISMISSISSIPPI STATEOT★4★3
JERRIN THOMPSONTEXASS★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DK KAUFMANNC STATES★3UNR
CAM RILEYFLORIDA STATELB★4★3
JAY FAIRUSCWR★3★3
MALCOLM JOHNSON JR.BOWLING GREENWR★4★3
JA'VARRIUS JOHNSONUCFWR★4★3
WESLEY STEINERWASHINGTON STATELB★4★3
TYLER FROMMGEORGIA SOUTHERNTE★4★3
STEPHEN SINGS VCHARLOTTEDL★3UNR
OMARI KELLYMIDDLE TENNESSEEWR★4★3
KOY MOOREWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES9%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS40%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#10NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
15OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9133COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1523 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST84% BACK84th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG84% BACK84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST44%44th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE