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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|SCOT LOEFFLER|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
BOWLING GREEN90 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
18FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
89%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1190 BC / 16
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE37
PERFORMANCE37
TALENT58
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT47
CONTINUITY89
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
40MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ALIBERTY#25L 24-3497575-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HEASTERN ILLINOIS—W 38-15————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AMICHIGAN#1L 6-3191100100-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HOHIO—L 7-38124747-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AGEORGIA TECH—W 38-27745151-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7AMIAMI (OH)—L 0-27215656-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ABUFFALO—W 24-1481111+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HAKRON—W 41-142622+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HBALL STATE—W 24-21201111+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AKENT STATE—W 49-191500+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14HTOLEDO—L 31-32376161-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 21AWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 34-101999+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26AMINNESOTA—L 24-30595353-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB30TAL84PERF30RET21ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
CONNOR BAZELAKQB SEPORTAL · INDIANA
★4★47879%+6HELD
11
CAMDEN ORTHQB SERET
UNR—5721%-13—
15
LUCIAN ANDERSON IIIQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
27
COLEMAN TEASDALEQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB69TAL58PERF69RET73ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TA'RON KEITHRB SERET
★3★38745%+29HELD
8
TERION STEWARTRB SERET
★3★37327%+33HELD
28
JAISON PATTERSONRB SERET
★3—6215%-37—
6
JAMAL JOHNSONRB SERET
★2—477%+8—
30
PASEAN WIMBERLYRB SERET
UNR—395%-17—
5
NICK MOSLEYRB JURET
★3★3202%-8HELD
23
CHRIS EDMONDSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
BRYCE DEFALCORB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE47TAL52PERF43RET76ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
ODIEU HILIAREWR SERET
UNR—9333%+7—
18
ABDUL-FATAI IBRAHIMWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—9131%-21—
HAROLD FANNIN JR.TE JURET
UNR—8945%+46—
18
AUSTIN OSBORNEWR SERET
★4★48325%-34HELD
10
LEVI GAZAREKTE SERET
★3—7428%-38—
89
ANDREW BENCHTE SERET
★2★36922%0ROSE
11
FINN HOGANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★2526%-6EMERGED
5
JAYLON TILLMANWR SENO SNAPS
★2★2495%—HELD
9
GRIFFIN LITTLETE JURET
★3—353%——
8
JHAYLIN EMBRYWR JURET
★2—281%——
27
NIC KILBRIDETE JURET
UNR—191%——
45
ROCCO HICKSTE SORET
★3—141%——
86
IAN DRUMMONDTE SERET
UNR—00%——
84
DOM GRGURICWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
TRIMAINE BROWN JR.WR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
7
TAE'SHAUN JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
BRYCE BOYERTE SORET
★2—00%——
17
TREY JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—00%——
19
SHAWN THIGPENWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
88
JACOB HARRISTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
13
CYNCEIR MCNEALWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
JARED MERKWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
ANDRE ROBINSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL32TAL51PERF32RET83n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL48TAL50PERF48RET80n=11 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
▸LB38TAL31PERF38RET94n=7 · 10 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸DB56TAL50PERF57RET96n=10 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRACY REVELSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
SHAWN THIGPENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ALIJAH WILLIAMSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JABARI MITCHELLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JACKSON KLEATHERHS RECRUITK★3UNR
EMABLE WAKILONGOHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DAYLN WHITEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BRODY BOLYNHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JAMES THOMASHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JACOB HARRISHS RECRUITWR★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HUNTER DEYOIOWA STATEDL★4★4
CONNOR BAZELAKINDIANAQB★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT18 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JALEN GRANTPURDUEOL★3★3
JORDAN ANDERSONUCLADB★3★4
BLAINE SPIRESUTAH STATEDL★2★3
TYRONE BRODENARKANSASWR★3★4
JB BROWNKANSASLB★2★3
CHRIS BACONELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
KARL BROOKSELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
JAKARI ROBINSONELIGIBILITY UPC★2—
DJ TAYLORELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
MATT MCDONALDELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES23%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS68%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#119NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8194COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
215 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST46% BACK46th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG46% BACK46th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR83%83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR21%21th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST96%96th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE