SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2025 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›BUFFALO›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|PETE LEMBO|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
BUFFALO116 FPIMAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
19FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#920 BC / 18
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.5
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE7
PERFORMANCE7
TALENT39
CONTINUITY67
DEFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT34
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
27MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28AMINNESOTA—L 10-23714949-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HSAINT FRANCIS—W 45-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AKENT STATE—W 31-28744+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HTROY—L 17-21283636-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HUCONN—L 17-20306161-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 31-30321313+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AMASSACHUSETTS—W 28-211500+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HAKRON—L 16-24251414+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ABOWLING GREEN—W 28-3231717+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 12ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 19-38122626+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 19HMIAMI (OH)—L 20-37374040-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HOHIO—L 26-3193939-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB19TAL17PERF19RET12ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
TA'QUAN ROBERSONQB SEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★4★39088%-31FELL
9
GUNNAR GRAYQB SERET
★3—5512%-48—
7
JASON WRIGHTQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
MASON CUMBIEQB SERET
★2—00%——
18
ANTHONY POLICAREQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB31TAL39PERF31RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
AL-JAY HENDERSONRB SERET
★3—9658%-12—
25
TERRANCE SHELTON JR.RB JURET
★3—7625%-35—
32
LAMAR SPERLINGRB JURET
★3★35710%+4HELD
4
MESSIAH BURCHRB SERET
★3—434%+10—
24
JAMES MCNEIL JR.RB JURET
UNR—292%+37—
21
DEVARE MATHISRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
NINO HILLRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
27
GABE GOINSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE22TAL49PERF29RET60ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
VICTOR SNOWWR SERET
UNR★39930%+20EMERGED
5
NIK MCMILLANWR SERET
★3★39929%+26HELD
8
JASAIAH GATHINGSWR SEPORTAL · UCONN
★3★39625%-27HELD
19
MARCUS VELEZTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—8054%-42—
14
EVAN KINGTE SERET
UNR—7544%-2—
3
PATRICK CLACKS IIIWR JURET
★3—7311%-61—
6
CHANCE MORROWWR SERET
★3★3574%+25HELD
42
MITCH VIVIANOTE SORET
★3★3263%—HELD
1
QUA SANDERSWR SERET
UNR—231%——
14
TYRELL SIMMONS JR.WR JURET
★3—140%——
1
PHILLIP FOLMARWR SONO SNAPS
★3—60%——
10
MARK-ANTHONY SCOTT JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
88
RYAN DALYTE JURET
UNR—00%——
87
JEREMY YANCEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
17
JEREMIAH WATKINSWR JURET
★3—00%——
20
BOBBY MAYSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
28
SHEY WILLIAMSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
TERRELL RICHARDSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
NICK LEONARDTE JURET
UNR—00%——
86
MICHAEL GELATKOTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
AIDEN PEDREROSTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
11
DWAYNE EARLY JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
ALVIN JONES IIIWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL50TAL35PERF50RET74n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL49TAL32PERF49RET98n=7 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB43TAL37PERF43RET82n=5 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB50TAL33PERF50RET69n=8 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PHILLIP FOLMARHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ALVIN JONES IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
THOMAS BARRHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DWAYNE EARLY JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACKSON SMALLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRADLEY ILUNGA-BISSELELEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JASON WRIGHTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CHRISTOPHER CLIMESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
GEORGE HILLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JACKSON DAVENPORTHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEONTEZ BRADLEYARIZONA STATECB★3★3
TA'QUAN ROBERSONKANSAS STATEQB★4★3
JACOB MERRITTMICHIGAN STATEIOL★2★2
JASAIAH GATHINGSUCONNWR★3★3
JACK HOWESMARYLANDKUNRUNR
MILES GREERSHEPHERDSUNRUNR
MITCHELL GONSERHARVARDLBUNRUNR
CONNOR HENDERSONNORTH TEXASLBUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAVIEN CUFFUT RIO GRANDE VALLEYWR★3★2
MATT PAJUSTEKENT STATEOL★3UNR
JACK SHIELDSUALBANYQB★3★2
SHAUN DOLACELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
DOM POLIZZIELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
CAELAN SHEPARDELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
MARCUS FUQUAELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
CJ OGBONNAELIGIBILITY UPQBUNR—
JAKE ORLANDOELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
ANTONIO COLCLOUGHELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES41%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS46%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#92NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8404COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
810 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST68% BACK68th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG68% BACK68th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR74%74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR12%12th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE