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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|KALANI SITAKE|—RECORD12-2|CONF—
BYU#11 AP 17 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
50FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
64%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-16IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#552 BC / 24
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+12.9
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT48
CONTINUITY64
DEFENSE91
PERFORMANCE91
TALENT60
CONTINUITY80
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HPORTLAND STATE—W 69-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HSTANFORD—W 27-3671818+69BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AEAST CAROLINA—W 34-13447373+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ACOLORADO—W 24-21793030+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3HWEST VIRGINIA—W 38-24553232+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AARIZONA—W 33-27528080+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HUTAH#14W 24-21699595-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AIOWA STATE—W 41-27497676+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ATEXAS TECH#7L 7-29809999-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HTCU#25W 44-13777373+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ACINCINNATI—W 26-14475959+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HUCF—W 41-21694444+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6ATEXAS TECH#7L 7-34809999-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HGEORGIA TECH—W 25-21727575+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB77TAL45PERF77RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
47
BEAR BACHMEIERQB SOPORTAL · STANFORD
★4★39298%+22FELL
2
MCCAE HILLSTEADQB JURET
★3★3151%-9HELD
10
TREYSON BOURGUETQB SERET
★3★350%-37HELD
16
COLE HAGENQB SORET
★4—00%——
16
EMERSON GEILMANQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB82TAL61PERF82RET85ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
LJ MARTINRB SERET
★3—9967%+11—
21
ENOCH NAWAHINERB SERET
★2—5911%-49—
12
PRESTON REXRB SERET
★3—547%-57—
28
JOVESA DAMUNIRB SORET
★3—537%+36—
30
SIONE MOARB SORET
UNR★3516%+18EMERGED
41
LUCKY FINAURB JURET
UNR—201%——
34
CHARLIE MISKARB SORET
UNR—00%——
36
KASON KREBSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
LOGAN PAYNERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE78TAL53PERF72RET53ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
CARSEN RYANTE SEPORTAL · UTAH
★4★39767%+30FELL
11
PARKER KINGSTONWR JURET
★3—9129%+34—
2
CHASE ROBERTSWR SERET
★3—8928%+32—
13
JOJO PHILLIPSWR JURET
★3—7316%-22—
5
CODY HAGENWR SORET
★4—7316%-58—
45
KEAYEN NEADTE SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
★2★36619%—ROSE
19
TIGER BACHMEIERWR SEPORTAL · STANFORD
★3★3618%-31HELD
82
NOAH MOEAKITE SORET
★3—527%——
87
ETHAN ERICKSONTE SERET
★3—363%-42—
18
REGGIE FRISCHKNECHTWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—332%——
85
ANTHONY OLSENTE JURET
UNR—312%——
83
WILL ZUNDELTE SORET
UNR—201%——
0
TEI NACUAWR SORET
★3—191%——
22
TREY ROBERTSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—150%——
4
DOMINIQUE MCKENZIEWR SORET
★3★3110%—HELD
24
ETHAN WOODTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—70%——
29
ROWAN REAYWR JURET
UNR—60%——
15
LAMASON WALLER IIIWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
88
TUCKER KELLEHERTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
80
JACOB NYETE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
84
KILA KEONEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
COLE CLEMENTTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL67TAL39PERF67RET72n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL61TAL58PERF61RET57n=9 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB65TAL65PERF65RET93n=8 · 11 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸DB64TAL58PERF64RET92n=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALAI KALANIUVALUHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
MCKAY MADSENHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
AUSTIN PAYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
LAMASON WALLER IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NUSI TAUMOEPEAUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JACKSON DOMANHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
TAANI MAKASINIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ULAVAI FETULIHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ANDREW WILLIAMSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
NOLAN KEENEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARSEN RYANUTAHTE★4★3
KEANU TANUVASAUTAHDL★3★3
ANDREW GENTRYMICHIGANOT★4★3
KYLE SFARCIOCSOUTHERN UTAHIOLUNR★3
BEAR BACHMEIERSTANFORDQB★4★3
JUSTIN KIRKLANDOKLAHOMA STATEDLUNR★3
TAUSILI AKANATEXASEDGE★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HARRISON TAGGARTCALIFORNIALB★4★3
JAKE RETZLAFFTULANEQBUNR★4
CREW WAKLEYPURDUEDB★2★3
KEELAN MARIONMIAMIWRUNR★4
JOSHUA SINGHVANDERBILTDLUNR★3
AISEA MOAMICHIGAN STATELB★4★3
MICAH HARPERMONTANAS★3★3
SIONE MOAUCONNLB★4UNR
MILES DAVISUTAH STATERB★3★3
CHIKA EBUNOHAUTAH STATESUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES59%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS60%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#55NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8638COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1329 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST93% BACK93th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG93% BACK93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR72%72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST92%92th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE