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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|SCOTT SATTERFIELD|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
CINCINNATI56 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
57FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
64%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
43%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#511 BC / 24
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.6
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE66
PERFORMANCE66
TALENT67
CONTINUITY64
DEFENSE62
PERFORMANCE62
TALENT62
CONTINUITY43
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
63MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HTOWSON—W 38-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HPITTSBURGH—L 27-28696262-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AMIAMI (OH)—W 27-16204949-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HHOUSTON—W 34-0532424+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ATEXAS TECH—L 41-44736060-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AUCF—W 19-13775555-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HARIZONA STATE#7W 24-14797474-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26ACOLORADO#25L 23-34787171-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HWEST VIRGINIA—L 24-31615252-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AIOWA STATE#15L 17-34518080-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AKANSAS STATE—L 15-41548787-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HTCU—L 13-20808282-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL99PERF69RET2ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BRENDAN SORSBYQB JUPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★59298%+4ROSE
16
BRADY LICHTENBERGQB SERET
★3—202%-8—
13
JACOB HOYINGQB JURET
UNR—00%——
5
SAMAJ JONESQB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
15
WILL KOCHERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
DANNY STODDARDQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB64TAL84PERF64RET63ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
COREY KINERRB SERET
★4—9563%-2—
21
EVAN PRYORRB SEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
★4★37323%+33FELL
28
MANNY COVEYRB JURET
★3★3517%-38HELD
7
CHANCE WILLIAMSRB SEPORTAL · GRAMBLING
★3★3364%-32HELD
5
VICTOR DAWSONRB SERET
UNR—232%——
23
BRIAN DONEGHY IIRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
JAKORION CAFFEYRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE57TAL65PERF54RET25ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 33 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
JOE ROYERTE SEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
★4★39561%+2FELL
8
XZAVIER HENDERSONWR SERET
★4★49530%+14HELD
17
TONY JOHNSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—9026%-18—
10
JAMOI MAYESWR SENO SNAPS
★3★38925%-24HELD
44
FRANCIS SHERMANTE SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS
UNR★36923%-39EMERGED
18
STERLING BERKHALTERWR SERET
UNR★4628%+23EMERGED
1
AARON TURNERWR SERET
★3★3534%+12HELD
87
GAVIN GROVERTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—498%——
10
TYRIN SMITHWR SEPORTAL · UTEP
UNR★3494%+29EMERGED
82
MICHAEL MCCALMONTTE SERET
UNR—415%——
7
BARRY JACKSON JR.WR JURET
★3★3392%—HELD
3
EVAN PRATERWR SERET
★4—231%-17—
83
DEVYN ZAHURSKYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—211%——
17
JOEY BELJANTE SERET
UNR★3151%+47EMERGED
80
ELIJAH JONESWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
19
DAKARAI ANDERSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
18
KALE WOODBURNWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
1
MICHAEL MUSSARIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
22
ZANE KINSEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
LYVIEL WATERSTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▸OL66TAL58PERF66RET97n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL46TAL50PERF46RET57n=9 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB57TAL73PERF57RET47n=5 · 10 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB56TAL63PERF56RET29n=10 · 6 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAMAJ JONESHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
DANIEL JAMESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MARQAVIOUS SABOORHS RECRUITS★3UNR
GAVIN GROVERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KALE WOODBURNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MONTAY WEEDONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
WILLIE GOODWYNHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAKE WHEELOCKHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
AIDEN PASTORIZAHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
SIMEON COLEMANHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRENDAN SORSBYINDIANAQB★3★4
MEHKI MILLERNEW MEXICO STATES★3★3
EVAN PRYOROHIO STATERB★4★3
DERRICK CANTEENVIRGINIA TECHCB★2★3
TYRIN SMITHUTEPWRUNR★3
TONY JOHNSONFLORIDA ATLANTICWRUNR★3
XAVIER LOZOWICKIMAINEIOLUNR★3
JARED BARTLETTWEST VIRGINIAEDGE★3★3
JAKE GOLDAYCENTRAL ARKANSASLBUNR★3
DARIAN VARNERWISCONSINDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYON THREATSUCFDB★3★3
DESHAWN PACEUCFLB★3★3
DORIAN JONESVIRGINIALB★3★3
JUSTIN HARRISTEXAS STATES★3★3
CHAMON METAYERARIZONA STATETE★4★3
PAYTEN SINGLETARYSOUTH FLORIDATE★3★3
JUSTIN WODTLYARIZONA STATEDL★3★3
MYLES MONTGOMERYUCFRB★3★3
DONOVAN OLLIECOLORADO STATEWR★3★3
DERRICK SHEPARD JR.UABDL★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES57%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS55%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#51NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8554COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2432 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST33% BACK33th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG33% BACK33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR2%2th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST29%29th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE