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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|SCOTT SATTERFIELD|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
CINCINNATI53 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
47FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#610 BC / 20
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.9
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE93
PERFORMANCE93
TALENT70
CONTINUITY49
DEFENSE55
PERFORMANCE55
TALENT62
CONTINUITY59
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HNEBRASKA—L 17-20866666-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HBOWLING GREEN—W 34-20231717+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 70-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 27AKANSAS—W 37-34665757+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HIOWA STATE—W 38-30497676-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUCF—W 20-11694444+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AOKLAHOMA STATE—W 49-17651111+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HBAYLOR—W 41-20754848+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AUTAH#14L 14-45699595-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HARIZONA—L 24-30528080-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HBYU#11L 14-26508787-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ATCU#25L 23-45777373-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2HNAVY#23L 13-3516666-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB79TAL97PERF79RET98ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BRENDAN SORSBYQB JURET
★3★58692%+9ROSE
16
BRADY LICHTENBERGQB SERET
★3—396%-11—
5
SAMAJ JONESQB JURET
★4—232%——
15
WILL KOCHERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
ZEBULIN KINSEYQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB60TAL72PERF60RET49ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
TAWEE WALKERRB SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
UNR★38645%+13EMERGED
21
EVAN PRYORRB SERET
★4★37934%+29FELL
28
MANNY COVEYRB JURET
★3★35711%+36HELD
13
ZION JOHNSONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—456%-4—
7
CHANCE WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3★3364%-48HELD
5
JAKORION CAFFEYRB SORET
★3★360%—HELD
▾WR/TE64TAL67PERF64RET32ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
JOE ROYERTE SERET
★4★39260%+9FELL
2
CALEB GOODIE SR.WR SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★38825%+13HELD
4
CYRUS ALLENWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★3★38624%+28HELD
13
NOAH JENNINGSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37819%+12EMERGED
9
JEFF CALDWELLWR SEPORTAL · LINDENWOOD
UNR★37718%+31EMERGED
0
ISAIAH JOHNSONWR JUPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA
UNR★3649%+32EMERGED
21
PATRICK GURDTE SEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
UNR★36217%—EMERGED
87
GAVIN GROVERTE JURET
★3—6116%-35—
83
DEVYN ZAHURSKYTE JURET
★3—487%——
14
ELIJAH JONESWR JURET
★3—484%——
7
BARRY JACKSON JR.WR JURET
★3★3241%—HELD
85
LYVIEL WATERSTE JURET
★2—91%——
18
GIYAHNI KONTOSISWR SONO SNAPS
★3—60%——
88
DAMARI WITHERSPOONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
19
DAKARAI ANDERSONWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
82
KA'MAURRI SMITHTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
KELLEN DAVISTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
18
KALE WOODBURNWR FRRET
★3—00%——
22
ZANE KINSEYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
TAIZAUN BURNSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
89
NASH BIGLINWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL70TAL67PERF70RET58n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL39TAL53PERF39RET42n=10 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB46TAL69PERF46RET97n=6 · 10 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸DB55TAL66PERF55RET45n=10 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GIYAHNI KONTOSISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ZION JOHNSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ZACH TAYLORHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TIM GRIFFINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CJ CRITEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
PATRICK WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DAMARI WITHERSPOONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ZEBULIN KINSEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CJ JONESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAMES EARLYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOE COTTONSOUTH DAKOTAOTUNR★4
ISAIAH JOHNSONWESTERN CAROLINAWRUNR★3
JAYLON WHITE-MCCLAINOLD DOMINIONEDGE★3★3
MATTHEW MCDOOMCOASTAL CAROLINACB★3★3
TAWEE WALKERWISCONSINRBUNR★3
CYRUS ALLENTEXAS A&MWR★3★3
CHRISTIAN HARRISONTENNESSEES★3★3
CALEB GOODIECOLORADO STATEWR★3★3
TAYDEN BARNESNEW MEXICO STATESUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT31 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN YOUNGARKANSASDB★4★3
KALEN CARROLLCENTRAL MICHIGANCB★3★3
TONY JOHNSONMIAMIWR★3UNR
JORDAN ROBINSONVIRGINIADB★2★3
STERLING BERKHALTERWAKE FORESTWRUNR★4
AARON TURNERRICEWR★3★3
JONATHAN HARDERTOLEDOOL★3★3
KEN WILLISJAMES MADISONCB★3★3
VICTOR DAWSONILLINOIS STATERBUNRUNR
JOHN WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES51%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#61NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8589COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2013 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST45%45th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE