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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|TIM BECK|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
COASTAL CAROLINA94 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
34FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
53%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#750 BC / 22
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.8
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE23
PERFORMANCE23
TALENT37
CONTINUITY70
DEFENSE18
PERFORMANCE18
TALENT45
CONTINUITY53
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
38MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29AJACKSONVILLE STATE—W 55-2784545-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HWILLIAM & MARY—W 40-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14ATEMPLE—W 28-202555+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HVIRGINIA—L 24-43563232-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HOLD DOMINION—W 45-3772929-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10AJAMES MADISON—L 7-39137070-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HLOUISIANA—L 24-34316161-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ATROY—L 24-38182929-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7HAPP STATE—W 38-24392626+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AMARSHALL—L 19-31425757-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 6-26244444-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AGEORGIA STATE—W 48-273488+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23AUTSA—L 15-44525353-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB66TAL28PERF66RET76ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
ETHAN VASKOQB SERET
★3★37776%0HELD
1
NOAH KIMQB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★35215%-20HELD
12
TAD HUDSONQB SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★4★3388%+25FELL
19
ALEX WALKERQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB61TAL48PERF61RET55ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
BRAYDON BENNETTRB SERET
★3★38846%+27HELD
20
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
★3★37829%-28HELD
22
SIMEON PRICERB SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★3★36214%-24HELD
25
DARREN LLOYDRB FRRET
UNR—466%+22—
7
JA'VIN SIMPKINSRB JURET
★3★3313%+29HELD
28
MATT PACK JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—202%——
26
D'MARIUS RUCKERRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
3
MAX BALTHAZARRB SERET
★3★300%-64HELD
▾WR/TE60TAL54PERF59RET57ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
KENDALL KARRTE SERET
★3★38744%+19HELD
8
JAMESON TUCKERWR SERET
★3—8526%+33—
18
CANE BERRONGTE SERET
★4★37831%+29FELL
0
SENIKA MCKIEWR SEPORTAL · UNLV
UNR★37418%+1EMERGED
17
CAMERON WRIGHTWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37216%+32HELD
0
BRYSON GRAVESWR JURET
UNR★36914%+22EMERGED
8
TRAY TAYLORWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★36511%+29EMERGED
33
ZACH COURTNEYTE SERET
★3★36418%—HELD
19
KYRE DUPLESSISWR SERET
UNR—629%+25—
3
MALICK MEIGAWR SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★3★3545%-5HELD
11
BROOKS JOHNSONTE SERET
★2★3456%—ROSE
84
XAKERY WIEDNERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★370%—HELD
86
JOHN GRANT IIITE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
82
NATHAN SCHUESSLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
ZACK ZANDIERTE FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
87
PAUL HARTMANTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
JAMAHDIA WHITBYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
CONNOR CMIELWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
ZACHARY COLEMANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
JAYDEN MCCLINTOCKWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
13
ANDRE JONESWR SOPORTAL · EASTERN NEW MEXICO
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL60TAL33PERF60RET83n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL43TAL48PERF43RET22n=13 · 8 METRICS · 67 OBS
▸LB42TAL34PERF43RET79n=4 · 10 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB49TAL47PERF49RET63n=11 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
D'MARIUS RUCKERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JULIUS TATEHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DJ MOOREHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
XAKERY WIEDNERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ZACH CODYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DEONDRE SHEPHERDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DANIEL JONESHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACOB KATAUSKASHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
MYLES WOODSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ELIJAH LEEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEAMONTAE DIGGSYOUNGSTOWN STATEDLUNR★3
SIMEON PRICEMISSISSIPPI STATERB★3★3
NAEJUAN BARBERSOUTH CAROLINA STATEDLUNR★3
NOAH KIMMICHIGAN STATEQB★3★3
IBRAHIM DIAWARASHIPPENSBURG UNIVERSITYEDGEUNR★3
XAMARION GORDONUSCS★4★3
ANDRE JONESEASTERN NEW MEXICOWRUNR★3
SENIKA MCKIEUNLVWRUNR★3
CHRISTIAN WASHINGTONNEW MEXICORB★3★3
SAWYER GORAM-WELCHTEXASIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT45 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WILL MCDONALDCALIFORNIAOL★2★3
JT KILLENEASTERN MICHIGANLBUNR★3
JARED BROWNSOUTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
GRAYSON MCCALLNC STATEQB★2★4
CJ BEASLEYGEORGIA STATERB★3★3
TYSON MOBLEYLIBERTYWR★2★3
TRE PINKNEYSOUTHERN MISSLB★3★3
JARRETT GUESTBRYANTQB★3★2
CHUCK ARNOLD JR.MISSOURI STATES★3UNR
JAHMAR BROWNLIBERTYLB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES50%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS64%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#75NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8401COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1829 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST39% BACK39th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG39% BACK39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR83%83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST63%63th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE