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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|TIM BECK|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
COASTAL CAROLINA121 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
42FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-19IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#910 BC / 12
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.1
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT39
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE22
PERFORMANCE22
TALENT37
CONTINUITY50
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AVIRGINIA#16L 7-48557878-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HCHARLESTON SOUTHERN—W 13-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HEAST CAROLINA—L 0-38447373-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 38-20261616-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AOLD DOMINION—L 7-47126464-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUL MONROE—W 23-81044+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AAPP STATE—W 45-37431919-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30HMARSHALL—W 44-27363737-26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HGEORGIA STATE—W 40-274522+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 40-45332424-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ASOUTH CAROLINA—L 7-51886464-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HJAMES MADISON#19L 10-5988181-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30ALOUISIANA TECH—L 14-23164444-33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL47PERF54RET65ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
TAD HUDSONQB SERET
★4★37865%-40FELL
10
SAMARI COLLIERQB SENO SNAPS
★3★36321%-35HELD
19
MJ MORRISQB SEPORTAL · MARYLAND
★4★35915%-27FELL
19
EMMETT BROWNQB JUPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE
★3★300%+3HELD
19
ALEX WALKERQB SORET
UNR—00%——
30
JON HUNTQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB33TAL44PERF33RET41ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JA'VIN SIMPKINSRB JURET
★3★38841%-3HELD
23
DOMINIC KNICELYRB SONO SNAPS
★3—7625%+19—
20
JEVON EDWARDSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—6818%+16—
21
JALEN JOHNRB SEPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
★3★36213%+6HELD
22
BREYAHN TOWNSENDRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—353%-53—
6
D'MARIUN PERTEETRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
28
JOE OBERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL40PERF54RET62ONE OWNERn=10 · 7 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
BRYSON GRAVESWR JURET
UNR★38119%+5EMERGED
0
KARMELLO ENGLISHWR SEPORTAL · WEST GEORGIA
★4★37716%-39FELL
11
BROOKS JOHNSONTE SERET
★2★37346%-29ROSE
17
CAMERON WRIGHTWR SERET
★3★37313%+26HELD
3
MALICK MEIGAWR SERET
★3★37213%-12HELD
33
ZACH COURTNEYTE SERET
★3★36839%+1HELD
1
ROBBY WASHINGTONWR JUPORTAL · MIAMI
★4★36811%+22FELL
2
MALCOLM GILLIEWR SEPORTAL · BALL STATE
UNR★36710%-3EMERGED
8
JAMESON TUCKERWR SERET
★3—669%+34—
15
ELI ARAGONWR JUPORTAL · WESTERN ILLINOIS
★2★3627%-23ROSE
12
JOSH HUMESTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★24610%—EMERGED
14
COLTON HINTONWR SEPORTAL · FURMAN
UNR★3463%—EMERGED
44
BROWN REAVESTE SONO SNAPS
★3—345%——
82
NATHAN SCHUESSLERWR JURET
UNR—60%——
87
PAUL HARTMANTE SORET
★3—00%——
18
CANE BERRONGTE SERET
★4★300%+29FELL
84
XAKERY WIEDNERWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
80
TRISHSTIN GLASSWR SOPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★300%—HELD
81
DWAYNE WHITEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL52TAL40PERF53RET81n=9 · 3 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DL47TAL29PERF47RET39n=10 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB49TAL32PERF49RET61n=6 · 10 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB56TAL44PERF56RET44n=10 · 6 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS8 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANDON ROSEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DOMINIC KNICELYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JEVON EDWARDSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DWAYNE WHITEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DOMINIC RIJOSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BEN VERGESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BROWN REAVESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
NATE GREGORYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN17 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACOB ROBINSONEMORY & HENRY COLLEGESUNR★3
ERIC TAYLORSMUDL★3★3
DARRION HENRY-YOUNGKENTUCKYDL★4★3
TRISHSTIN GLASSWAKE FORESTWR★3★3
KARMELLO ENGLISHWEST GEORGIAWR★4★3
COLTON HINTONFURMANWRUNR★3
ROBBY WASHINGTONMIAMICB★4★3
EMMETT BROWNSAN JOSÉ STATEQB★3★3
MJ MORRISMARYLANDQB★4★3
OBINNA ONWUKAWEST VIRGINIAEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONAVAN MANSONUNLVOLUNR★3
MATTHEW MCDOOMCINCINNATICB★3★3
CLEV LUBINLOUISVILLEDL★2★3
DEAMONTAE DIGGSFLORIDA STATEDLUNR★4
GAVIN RANSAWARKANSAS STATEDTUNR★3
CRISTIAN CONYERAPP STATEDB★3★3
ETHAN VASKOLIBERTYQB★3★3
BRAYDON BENNETTVIRGINIA TECHRB★3★3
CLINTON ANOKWURUNORTHWESTERN STATEDL★3★3
JOAH CASHTULSADL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES93%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS48%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#91NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8442COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3049 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST93% BACK93th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG93% BACK93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR81%81th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST44%44th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE