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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|MANNY DIAZ|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
DUKE55 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
50FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
51%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
77%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#611 BC / 18
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.7
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT62
CONTINUITY51
DEFENSE76
PERFORMANCE76
TALENT70
CONTINUITY77
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HELON—W 26-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ANORTHWESTERN—W 26-20612424+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HUCONN—W 26-21275050+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 45-171922+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HNORTH CAROLINA—W 21-20856464+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AGEORGIA TECH—L 14-24675151+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HFLORIDA STATE—W 23-16913838+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HSMU#12L 27-28829292-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AMIAMI#18L 31-53919393-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ANC STATE—W 29-19725959+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HVIRGINIA TECH—W 31-28637878-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AWAKE FOREST—W 23-17493030+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2AOLE MISS#11L 20-52869999-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB75TAL89PERF75RET10ONE OWNERn=2 · 4 METRICS · 5 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
MAALIK MURPHYQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS
★4★49290%-13HELD
2
HENRY BELIN IVQB SERET
★3★34910%-24HELD
12
GRAYSON LOFTISQB JURET
★3★300%-35HELD
19
RENT MONTIEQB SENO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
20
DONALD TOMLINQB SORET
UNR—00%——
16
COLE KENNONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB35TAL64PERF35RET37ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
STAR THOMASRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
UNR★39562%+2EMERGED
7
PEYTON JONESRB JURET
★3★37424%+12HELD
9
JAQUEZ MOORERB SERET
★3★35912%+12HELD
4
AL WOOTEN IIRB SEPORTAL · MERCER
★2★3161%—ROSE
13
QURAN BOYDRB FRRET
★3★3141%—HELD
13
TRAVIS BATESRB JURET
★3—00%——
10
MARQUISE COLLINSRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
28
COLE DENSONRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL65PERF66RET65ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
ELI PANCOLWR SERET
★3—9427%+22—
8
JORDAN MOOREWR SERET
★3—9427%+23—
2
SAHMIR HAGANSWR SERET
★3—8420%-27—
15
JAKE TAYLORTE SERET
★3—7849%-38—
3
QUE'SEAN BROWNWR JURET
★3★47213%+33ROSE
81
NICKY DALMOLINTE SERET
★3—7138%-20—
7
JAVON HARVEYWR SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
★2★3638%+4ROSE
1
JONTAVIS ROBERTSONWR SERET
★3—586%-21—
85
JEREMIAH HASLEYTE SERET
★3—396%-43—
80
VANCE BOLYARDTE JURET
★3★3345%—HELD
9
CHASE TYLERWR SONO SNAPS
★4★3201%—FELL
46
TONY BOGGSTE JURET
★3—172%——
10
JAMES HOPSON IIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
NICK LAMPERTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
JAYDEN MOOREWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
BRETT ELLIOTTTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
BEAU LILLY IIIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
84
AKIVA MOSSEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
88
PAXON KETTERINGWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
18
SPENCER JONESWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
86
CHARLIE KINGWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL71TAL52PERF71RET56n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL83TAL71PERF83RET74n=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB72TAL72PERF72RET52n=6 · 10 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB74TAL68PERF74RET98n=6 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHASE TYLERHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
KYREN CONDOLLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KOBE SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
LANDAN CALLAHANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
GEMYEL ALLENHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
PRESTON WATSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BRADLEY SMITHHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
MONTREZE SMITH JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAYDEN MOOREHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACK SMALLHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MAALIK MURPHYTEXASQB★4★4
KENDY CHARLESLIBERTYDL★3★4
JAVON HARVEYOLD DOMINIONWR★2★3
OZZIE NICHOLASPRINCETONLB★3★3
MICAH SAHAKIANCORNELLOTUNR★3
MIKE BARRLAFAYETTEIOLUNR★3
STAR THOMASNEW MEXICO STATERBUNR★3
ALEX HOWARDTEXAS A&MLB★3★3
TRE'SHON DEVONESRICECB★3★3
JAMES POGORELCSTANFORDOT★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT35 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRANDON JOHNSONOREGONDB★3★3
AENEAS PEEBLESVIRGINIA TECHDL★3★3
R.J. OBENNOTRE DAMEDL★3UNR
DORIAN MAUSIAUBURNLB★3UNR
JORDAN WATERSNC STATERB★3★4
RILEY LEONARDNOTRE DAMEQB★3★4
MEHKI WALLNORTH CAROLINA CENTRALWR★3★3
MALIK BOWEN-SIMSAUSTIN PEAYWR★3★3
APOLLOS COOKMERCERTE★3★3
JACOB MONKNFL DRAFT R5OL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES59%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS39%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#61NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8646COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1821 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST50% BACK50th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG50% BACK50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR56%56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR10%10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST98%98th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE