SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2025 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|MANNY DIAZ|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
DUKE43 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
58FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#304 BC / 28
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE81
PERFORMANCE81
TALENT64
CONTINUITY61
DEFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT63
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HELON—W 45-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HILLINOIS—L 19-45548383-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ATULANE#18L 27-34516767+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HNC STATE—W 45-33686060+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ASYRACUSE—W 38-3761616+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ACALIFORNIA—W 45-21744141+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HGEORGIA TECH—L 18-27727575-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ACLEMSON—W 46-45967676-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AUCONN—L 34-37306161+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HVIRGINIA#16L 17-34557878-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ANORTH CAROLINA—W 32-25783333+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HWAKE FOREST—W 49-32476262+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 6AVIRGINIA#16W 27-20557878-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31HARIZONA STATE—W 42-39775656+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL98PERF59RET1ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
DARIAN MENSAHQB JUPORTAL · TULANE
★2★49999%—ROSE
2
HENRY BELIN IVQB SERET
★3★3151%-26HELD
14
MICHAEL APPEL JR.QB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
DAN MAHANQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
16
LAWRENCE GARDNERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB55TAL68PERF55RET16ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
NATE SHEPPARDRB SONO SNAPS
★4—9853%+18—
4
ANDERSON CASTLERB SEPORTAL · APP STATE
★3★38631%+9HELD
9
JAQUEZ MOORERB SERET
★3★36110%+11HELD
7
PEYTON JONESRB JURET
★3★3454%+7HELD
13
TRAVIS BATESRB JURET
★3—211%+34—
28
COLE DENSONRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL68PERF62RET63ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
JEREMIAH HASLEYTE SERET
★3—9961%+10—
18
COOPER BARKATEWR SEPORTAL · HARVARD
★3★49930%+32ROSE
2
SAHMIR HAGANSWR SERET
★3—9726%-22—
3
QUE'SEAN BROWNWR JURET
★3★49626%+30ROSE
1
ANDREL ANTHONYWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★3★37613%+9HELD
0
LANDEN KINGTE SEPORTAL · UTAH
★3★37522%+53HELD
15
JAKE TAYLORTE SERET
★3—6111%-19—
8
JAYDEN MOOREWR SORET
★3—544%-50—
46
TONY BOGGSTE JURET
★3—465%——
9
CHASE TYLERWR SORET
★4★3422%—FELL
80
VANCE BOLYARDTE JURET
★3★3271%—HELD
81
BRETT ELLIOTTTE SORET
★3—00%——
17
JAIVON SOLOMONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
21
QEANU JOHNSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
6
JAMIEN LITTLEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
19
KAVON SIMMONSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
88
PAXON KETTERINGWR SORET
★2—00%——
▸OL50TAL52PERF50RET77n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL66TAL64PERF66RET78n=11 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸LB53TAL55PERF53RET66n=7 · 10 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB48TAL67PERF48RET67n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYCE DAVISHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
BRADLEY GOMPERSHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
NATE SHEPPARDHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
BARIATE KARAHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JAIVON SOLOMONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SAMPSON ONUOHAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAMIEN LITTLEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DAN MAHANHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TOMMY RUPLEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KOLBE HARMONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DARIAN MENSAHTULANEQB★2★4
ANDREL ANTHONYOKLAHOMAWR★3★3
COOPER BARKATEHARVARDWR★3★3
CALEB WEAVERSAM HOUSTONSUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MAALIK MURPHYOREGON STATEQB★4★4
STAR THOMASTENNESSEERBUNR★3
PLACIDE DJUNGU-SUNGUBAYLORS★3★3
CARTER WYATTELONLB★3★3
AL WOOTEN IITOWSONRB★2★3
MONTREZE SMITH JR.AUSTIN PEAYLB★3★3
JAMES POGORELCJAMES MADISONOL★4★3
GRAYSON LOFTISCHARLOTTEQB★3★3
CALEB KRINGSELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
JAYLEN STINSONELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES65%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS59%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#30NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8692COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
913 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST27% BACK27th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG27% BACK27th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR77%77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE