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HOME›TEAMS›FLORIDA STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|MIKE NORVELL|—RECORD13-1|CONF—
FLORIDA STATE#6 AP 11 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
86FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
77%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#199 BC / 17
BC RATIO
36%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs11.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+21.1
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT76
CONTINUITY57
DEFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT78
CONTINUITY77
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HLSU#12W 45-24969292+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HSOUTHERN MISS—W 66-13231313+81BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ABOSTON COLLEGE—W 31-29613838+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ACLEMSON#20W 31-24978484+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HVIRGINIA TECH—W 39-17586666+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HSYRACUSE—W 41-3504040+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HDUKE—W 38-20527878+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AWAKE FOREST—W 41-16502828+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4APITTSBURGH—W 24-7723232+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HMIAMI—W 27-20928080+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HNORTH ALABAMA—W 58-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
13NOV 25AFLORIDA—W 24-15907070+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HLOUISVILLE#19W 16-6807575+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30HGEORGIA#4L 3-63999999-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB83TAL52PERF83RET87ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
JORDAN TRAVISQB SERET
★3—8474%+29—
11
BROCK GLENNQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★35213%-56HELD
18
TATE RODEMAKERQB JURET
★3★35113%+8HELD
10
AJ DUFFYQB JURET
★4★400%—HELD
16
DYLAN MCNAMARAQB SORET
★2★200%—HELD
12
MICHAEL GRANTQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB66TAL87PERF66RET90ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
TREY BENSONRB JURET
★4—9041%+26—
9
LAWRANCE TOAFILIRB SERET
★4—8534%+26—
1
RODNEY HILLRB JURET
★4★36011%-37FELL
26
CAZIAH HOLMESRB SEPORTAL · PENN STATE
★4★4548%+21HELD
0
CJ CAMPBELL JR.RB SERET
UNR★3373%+36EMERGED
3
SAMUEL SINGLETON JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★4—242%——
33
DEMETRIC STEPHENSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE77TAL85PERF75RET38ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
KEON COLEMANWR JUPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★4★49333%+16HELD
84
KYLE MORLOCKTE SEPORTAL · SHORTER
UNR★49140%+4EMERGED
6
JAHEIM BELLTE JUPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★4★48532%+24HELD
14
JOHNNY WILSONWR JURET
★4—7520%+34—
87
MARKESTON DOUGLASTE SERET
★3★36515%+38HELD
JA'KHI DOUGLASWR SERET
★4—6513%+15—
1
KENTRON POITIERWR SERET
★3—6110%+25—
2
DESTYN HILLWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★4578%-36ROSE
3
DARION WILLIAMSONWR SERET
★3★3568%+28HELD
85
JACKSON WESTTE SERET
★3★3485%—HELD
85
PRESTON DANIELTE SERET
UNR★3475%—EMERGED
5
HYKEEM WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
★5★4454%—FELL
22
DEUCE SPANNWR SERET
★3★3362%-1HELD
1
WINSTON WRIGHT JR.WR SERET
★3★3332%-36HELD
16
JOSHUA BURRELLTE SERET
★3★3312%—HELD
83
BRIAN COURTNEYTE SERET
★3★3221%—HELD
8
VANDREVIUS JACOBSWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★4171%—HELD
89
JERRALE POWERSTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
81
JIMMY CASEYTE JURET
UNR—00%——
87
XAVIER JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
49
VANCE NICKLAUSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
2
JEREMIAH GIEDRYSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
CARSON PIELOCKWR SORET
UNR—00%——
31
SOLOMON LOWERY JR.WR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
2
GOLDIE LAWRENCEWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
ZAMARI MCKENLEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL61TAL75PERF61RET50n=8 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL85TAL79PERF85RET75n=13 · 8 METRICS · 66 OBS
▸LB82TAL79PERF82RET90n=6 · 10 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB78TAL78PERF78RET74n=11 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HYKEEM WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
LUCAS SIMMONS-JOHANSSONHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
CONRAD HUSSEYHS RECRUITS★4UNR
BLAKE NICHELSONHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
KJ SAMPSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
LAMONT GREEN JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
VANDREVIUS JACOBSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
EDWIN JOSEPHHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
SAMUEL SINGLETON JR.HS RECRUITRB★4UNR
BROCK GLENNHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
FENTRELL CYPRESSVIRGINIACBUNR★4
JAHEIM BELLSOUTH CAROLINATE★4★4
BRADEN FISKEWESTERN MICHIGANDL★3★4
KEON COLEMANMICHIGAN STATEWR★4★4
GILBER EDMONDSOUTH CAROLINAEDGE★3★4
JEREMIAH BYERSUTEPOT★3★4
KYLE MORLOCKSHORTERTEUNR★4
DARRELL JACKSONMIAMIDLUNR★4
CASEY RODDICKCOLORADOIOL★3★3
KEIONDRE JONESAUBURNIOL★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERRICK MCLENDONCOLORADOLB★3UNR
OMARION COOPERCOLORADODB★4★3
MYCAH PITTMANUTAHWR★4★4
BRENDAN GANTCOLORADOLB★4★3
JARRETT JACKSONMICHIGAN STATEDLUNR★3
TRESHAUN WARDKANSAS STATERB★3★3
MALIK MCCLAINPENN STATEWR★4★3
AMARI GAINERNORTH CAROLINALB★4★3
ZANE HERRINGSOUTH FLORIDAOL★3★3
SAM MCCALLTEXAS A&MCB★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES26%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS43%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#19NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
9OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8995COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1123 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST79% BACK79th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG79% BACK79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR50%50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST74%74th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE