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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|WILLIE FRITZ|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
HOUSTON82 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
53FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
37%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#602 BC / 14
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.9
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE12
PERFORMANCE12
TALENT61
CONTINUITY62
DEFENSE78
PERFORMANCE78
TALENT69
CONTINUITY37
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HUNLV#23L 7-27397474-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AOKLAHOMA—L 12-16957676-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HRICE—W 33-7281919+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ACINCINNATI—L 0-34574747-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HIOWA STATE#15L 0-20518080-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ATCU—W 30-19808282-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AKANSAS—L 14-42656262-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HUTAH—W 17-14777171-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HKANSAS STATE—W 24-19548787-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AARIZONA—L 3-27603939-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HBAYLOR—L 10-20697272-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ABYU#13L 18-30448888-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB60TAL66PERF60RET51ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONQB SEPORTAL · LOUISIANA
★3★36948%+28HELD
1
DONOVAN SMITHQB SERET
★3★36847%+24HELD
15
UI ALEQB JURET
UNR—264%——
19
HOLMAN EDWARDSQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
10
CALEB MCMICKLEQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
15
JAKE SOCKQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
INDIANA WIJAYQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB47TAL56PERF47RET42ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
RE'SHAUN SANFORD IIRB JURET
★3—7938%+32—
21
STACY SNEEDRB SERET
★3—7635%+23—
48
JMARION BURNETTERB JUNO SNAPS
★4★35411%-42FELL
25
DJ BUTLERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—447%+30—
5
PARKER JENKINSRB JURET
★4★3447%-39FELL
16
JAYSHON RIDGLERB JUNO SNAPS
★3—91%——
36
SHERMAN SMITHRB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
TONY MATHIS JR.RB SERET
★3★300%-40HELD
40
STEVE POLKRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL63PERF58RET35ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 41 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
MALIQ CARRTE SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★4★38248%+13FELL
13
JAYDEN YORKTE SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
UNR★37841%-32EMERGED
12
STEPHON JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★37824%+5HELD
14
JOSEPH MANJACK IVWR SERET
★3★37824%+8HELD
4
MEKHI MEWSWR SEPORTAL · GEORGIA
UNR★37724%0EMERGED
8
DEVAN WILLIAMSWR JUPORTAL · TULSA
★3★36513%+25HELD
82
JONAH WILSONWR JURET
★4★36211%-35FELL
85
TRAVILLE FREDERICK JR.TE JUNO SNAPS
★3—5111%——
14
MARQUIS SHOULDERSWR JUPORTAL · TULSA
★3★3444%+23HELD
2
KOBY YOUNGWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—130%——
80
JETT RUNIONTE SORET
★3★340%—HELD
89
KOLBY WHITEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
ANTHONY GANGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
JA'RYAN WALLACEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
85
MATT BYRNESTE SERET
UNR★300%-36EMERGED
87
IVAN AUTENREITHTE SORET
UNR—00%——
34
DYLAN CADDLEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
35
KALEB THOMASTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
SAMUEL PADGITTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
42
HUNTER TEICHMANWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
AUSTIN BICEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
33
DYLAN GAYTONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
38
AARON DAVISWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
BROCK FOSTERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL59PERF54RET75n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL64TAL60PERF64RET36n=7 · 8 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸LB52TAL62PERF52RET60n=6 · 11 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸DB50TAL77PERF50RET24n=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS7 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
J'MARION BURNETTEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
MAURICE WILLIAMS IIHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
KOBY YOUNGHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYSHON RIDGLEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
RAYQUAN BELLHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TRAVILLE FREDERICK JR.HS RECRUITTE★3UNR
DARIUS WASHINGTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN18 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COREY PLATT JR.TULANELB★3★4
MALIQ CARRMICHIGAN STATETE★4★3
KENDRE GANTLOUISIANALB★3★3
JEREMIAH WILSONSYRACUSECB★4★3
CHRISTIAN BRATHWAITELSULB★3★3
KRISTON DAVISSOUTHERNCBUNR★3
HERSHEY MCLAURINWEST VIRGINIASUNR★3
ZEON CHRISSLOUISIANAQB★3★3
KEITH COOPERTULANEDLUNR★3
QUINDARIO LEECENTRAL MICHIGANDLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH HAMILTONOLE MISSCB★2★3
REUBEN UNIJEUCLAOL★3★3
JAMAREE CALDWELLOREGONDLUNR★4
SAMUEL BROWNMIAMIWR★4UNR
CHIDOZIE NWANKWOCOLORADODT★3★3
HAKEEM AJIJOLAIYATCUDLUNR★3
MATTHEW GOLDENTEXASWR★4★4
TREYLIN PAYNETEXAS STATELB★3★3
DALTON CARNESNORTH TEXASWRUNR★3
MOSES ALEXANDEREASTERN ILLINOISDBUNR★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES5%1 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS54%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#60NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8671COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2734 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST83% BACK83th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG83% BACK83th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR75%75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR51%51th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST24%24th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE