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● LIVE|2025 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|WILLIE FRITZ|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
HOUSTON#22 AP 50 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
53FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
23%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
41%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#522 BC / 19
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.5
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT64
CONTINUITY23
DEFENSE64
PERFORMANCE64
TALENT62
CONTINUITY41
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
47MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN—W 27-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ARICE—W 35-9231212+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 12HCOLORADO—W 36-20793030+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26AOREGON STATE—W 27-245777+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HTEXAS TECH#7L 11-35809999-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AOKLAHOMA STATE—W 39-17651111+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HARIZONA—W 31-28528080-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AARIZONA STATE—W 24-16775656+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HWEST VIRGINIA—L 35-45553232+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7AUCF—W 30-27694444+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HTCU#25L 14-17777373-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ABAYLOR—W 31-24754848+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27HLSU—W 38-35967777-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB63TAL92PERF63RET6ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
CONNER WEIGMANQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★5★48994%0FELL
9
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONQB SERET
★3★3416%+18HELD
12
AUSTIN CARLISLEQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
15
JAKE SOCKQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
INDIANA WIJAYQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB50TAL40PERF50RET37ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
DEAN CONNORSRB SEPORTAL · RICE
UNR★39963%+3EMERGED
25
DJ BUTLERRB JURET
★3—7018%+1—
21
STACY SNEEDRB SERET
★3—6313%+23—
48
JMARION BURNETTERB JURET
★4★3537%-51FELL
37
ZANE SMITHRB SONO SNAPS
★2—60%——
16
JAYSHON RIDGLERB JURET
★3—00%——
38
AARON DAVISRB SORET
UNR—00%——
6
RE'SHAUN SANFORD IIRB JURET
★3—00%+32—
40
STEVE POLKRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
32
NEHEMIAH WARMATERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE62TAL80PERF55RET25ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TANNER KOZIOLTE SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★2★410069%+22ROSE
0
AMARE THOMASWR SEPORTAL · UAB
★3★39735%+27HELD
2
KOBY YOUNGWR JURET
★3—8323%+19—
3
HARVEY BROUSSARD IIIWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8020%-17—
12
STEPHON JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★37114%+7HELD
87
LUKE MCGARYTE SEPORTAL · TULSA
UNR★36414%+49EMERGED
19
KALEB THOMASTE JURET
★3—5910%——
10
JAQUISE MARTINWR SONO SNAPS
★3—514%——
85
TRAVILLE FREDERICK JR.TE JURET
★3—475%——
4
MEKHI MEWSWR SERET
UNR★3453%-4EMERGED
8
DEVAN WILLIAMSWR JURET
★3★3301%+27HELD
13
JAYDEN YORKTE SERET
UNR★3282%-34EMERGED
86
WYATT HERBELTE SONO SNAPS
★3—70%——
14
MARQUIS SHOULDERSWR JURET
★3★360%+23HELD
88
JACORY THURMANTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
48
BROCK FOSTERTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
81
ANTHONY GANGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
34
DYLAN CADDLEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
84
SAMUEL PADGITTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
42
HUNTER TEICHMANWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
ZAYLEN CORMIERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
33
DYLAN GAYTONWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
46
JEFFREY STROZIER JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL58TAL52PERF58RET19n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL50TAL63PERF50RET31n=6 · 7 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸LB40TAL59PERF40RET55n=6 · 11 METRICS · 57 OBS
▸DB57TAL63PERF57RET37n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEMETRIS DEAN IIHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
TRAVIS BUHAKEHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
SHELDON RICEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
RESHAD STERLINGHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KENZY WESTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ZAYLEN CORMIERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
AUSTIN CARLISLEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DK MAYSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CARMELLO BROOKSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BLAKE HOGSHOOTERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TANNER KOZIOLWISCONSINTE★2★4
CONNER WEIGMANTEXAS A&MQB★5★4
ZELMAR VEDDERSACRAMENTO STATECBUNR★3
EDDIE WALLS IIIFLORIDA INTERNATIONALEDGEUNR★3
LUKE MCGARYTULSATEUNR★3
BLAKE THOMPSONLOUISIANA TECHSUNR★3
JESUS MACHADOTULANELB★3★3
C.J. DOUGLASSAMFORDSUNR★3
AMARE THOMASUABWR★3★3
KHALIL LAUFAUWASHINGTON STATEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
A.J. HAULCYLSUS★3★4
A.J. HOLMES JR.TEXAS TECHDL★3UNR
JEREMIAH WILSONFLORIDA STATEDB★4★3
HERSHEY MCLAURINPURDUEDBUNR★3
JOSEPH MANJACK IVTCUWR★3★3
JUWON GASTONMIDDLE TENNESSEES★3★3
JALEN EMERYWESTERN KENTUCKYDB★3★3
TEAGAN WILKEAST CAROLINADB★3★3
PARKER JENKINSEAST CAROLINARB★4★3
NADAME TUCKERWESTERN MICHIGANDEUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES47%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS30%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#52NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8681COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2828 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST98% BACK98th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG98% BACK98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR19%19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR6%6th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST37%37th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE