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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|KIRK FERENTZ|—RECORD10-4|CONF—
IOWA#24 AP 41 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
71FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#412 BC / 25
BC RATIO
16%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.4
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE0
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT60
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE89
PERFORMANCE89
TALENT71
CONTINUITY86
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HUTAH STATE—W 24-14252020+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AIOWA STATE—W 20-13577272-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 41-101999+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23APENN STATE#13L 0-31919797-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HMICHIGAN STATE—W 26-16813434+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HPURDUE—W 20-14663232+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AWISCONSIN—W 15-6797878-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HMINNESOTA—L 10-12595353+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ANORTHWESTERN—W 10-7634848+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HRUTGERS—W 22-0565959+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HILLINOIS—W 15-13554444+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ANEBRASKA—W 13-10855151+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2HMICHIGAN#1L 0-2691100100-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 1ATENNESSEE#17L 0-35899090-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB20TAL32PERF20RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
DEACON HILLQB SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★3★37671%-54HELD
11
CADE MCNAMARAQB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★4★46026%+1HELD
10
MARCO LAINEZQB SONO SNAPS
★3—233%——
2
JOE LABASQB SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
13
TOMMY POHOLSKYQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB36TAL59PERF36RET89ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
LESHON WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3★39449%-36HELD
2
KALEB JOHNSONRB JURET
★4—7523%-24—
4
JAZIUN PATTERSONRB SERET
★3★36514%-51HELD
28
KAMARI MOULTONRB SENO SNAPS
★3—496%-29—
0
TJ WASHINGTON JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3404%——
24
MAX WHITERB SERET
UNR★3121%—EMERGED
8
RUSTY VANWETZINGA IVFB JUNO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
31
ELI MILLERFB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE38TAL57PERF40RET68ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
ADDISON OSTRENGATE SERET
★3—9532%-28—
86
STEVEN STILIANOSTE SERET
★3—8927%-19—
89
NICO RAGAINIWR SERET
★3—8943%-32—
83
ERICK ALLTE SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN
★4★47517%+25HELD
0
DIANTE VINESWR SERET
★3★37427%-28HELD
8
KALEB BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★4★37023%-23FELL
82
JOHNNY PASCUZZITE SERET
UNR★36511%—EMERGED
85
LUKE LACHEYTE SERET
★4—618%+15—
48
ZACH ORTWERTHTE SENO SNAPS
★3—535%——
17
JACOB BOSTICKWR SERET
★3★3466%—HELD
6
SETH ANDERSONWR SEPORTAL · IOWA
★2★24133%+26HELD
88
HAYDEN LARGETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—312%——
21
KADEN WETJENWR SERET
UNR—252%——
0
JARRIETT BUIEWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
16
CAEL VANDERBUSHTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
15
JACK JOHNSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
ALEC WICKWR JURET
UNR—00%-55—
49
ANDREW LENTSCHTE JURET
UNR—00%——
14
ALEX MOTAWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
14
REESE OSGOODWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
GRAHAM FRIEDRICHSENWR JURET
UNR—00%——
17
ALEX EICHMANNWR SERET
UNR—00%——
33
JALYN THOMPSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
7
DAYTON HOWARDWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
44
GRANT LEEPERTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
2
AYDEN PRICEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
AIDAN MCDERMOTTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
13
JUDAH MALLETTEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL33TAL77PERF33RET85n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL38TAL80PERF38RET99n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB26TAL40PERF26RET98n=3 · 10 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DB61TAL71PERF61RET73n=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BEN KUETERHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
TREVOR LAUCKHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ALEX MOTAHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KAHLIL TATEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
LEIGHTON JONESHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CHASE BRACKNEYHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ZACH ORTWERTHHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KENNETH MERRIEWEATHERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JOHN NESTORHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MARCO LAINEZ IIIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ERICK ALLMICHIGANTE★4★4
NICK JACKSONVIRGINIALB★3★4
CADE MCNAMARAMICHIGANQB★4★3
RUSTY FETHMIAMI (OH)OG★2★3
DAIJON PARKERSAGINAW VALLEY STATEOTUNR★3
DEACON HILLWISCONSINQB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT24 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GAVIN WILLIAMSNORTHERN ILLINOISRB★3★3
ALEX PADILLASMUQB★3★3
JESTIN JACOBSOREGONLB★4★4
KEAGAN JOHNSONKANSAS STATEWR★4★3
DALLAS CRADDIETHKENT STATEDB★3★3
RILEY MOSSELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
JACK CAMPBELLELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
SETH BENSONELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
KAEVON MERRIWEATHERELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
SAM LAPORTAELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES30%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS52%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#41NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8586COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
612 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST43% BACK43th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG43% BACK43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST73%73th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE