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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|KIRK FERENTZ|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
IOWA#17 AP 18 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
70FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#384 BC / 18
BC RATIO
15%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+13.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT64
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE90
PERFORMANCE90
TALENT74
CONTINUITY83
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HUALBANY—W 34-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6AIOWA STATE—L 13-16497676+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HMASSACHUSETTS—W 47-71500+92BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 19ARUTGERS—W 38-28624747+45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HINDIANA#1L 15-2048100100-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AWISCONSIN—W 37-0803838+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HPENN STATE—W 25-24939090+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HMINNESOTA—W 41-3714949+43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HOREGON#4L 16-18979898-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AUSC#20L 21-26888989+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HMICHIGAN STATE—W 20-17734040+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28ANEBRASKA—W 40-16866666+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31AVANDERBILT#15W 34-27619393-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL76PERF59RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
MARK GRONOWSKIQB SEPORTAL · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
UNR★38193%+11EMERGED
9
HANK BROWNQB SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★3★3366%+34HELD
10
JEREMY HECKLINSKIQB JUPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★351%—HELD
16
RYAN FITZGERALDQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
19
JACKSON STRATTONQB JURET
★3★300%-45HELD
3
JIMMY SULLIVANQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB56TAL59PERF56RET74ONE OWNERn=5 · 5 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
KAMARI MOULTONRB SERET
★3—9149%0—
26
XAVIER WILLIAMSRB JURET
★3—6416%+21—
4
JAZIUN PATTERSONRB SERET
★3★36113%-21HELD
0
TJ WASHINGTON JR.RB JURET
★3★35811%-49—
5
NATHAN MCNEILRB SONO SNAPS
★3—5710%-25—
23
BREVIN DOLLRB JURET
★3—60%——
22
BRAEDEN JACKSONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE63TAL44PERF56RET85ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 42 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
DJ VONNAHMETE JURET
★2—8837%+45—
88
HAYDEN LARGETE SERET
UNR—8230%-13—
48
ZACH ORTWERTHTE SERET
★3—7421%+8—
5
JACOB GILLWR SERET
★3★37426%-17HELD
2
SAM PHILLIPSWR SEPORTAL · CHATTANOOGA
UNR★37425%+22EMERGED
7
DAYTON HOWARDWR SERET
★3—6516%+33—
21
KADEN WETJENWR SERET
UNR—6415%-17—
2
REECE VANDER ZEEWR JURET
★3—6112%+32—
80
MICHAEL BURTTE JURET
★3—444%——
1
KJ PARKERWR JURET
★3—445%——
87
ADDISON OSTRENGATE SERET
★3—434%-21—
6
SETH ANDERSONWR SERET
★2★241100%-18HELD
85
THOMAS MEYERTE SONO SNAPS
★4—403%——
17
ALEX EICHMANNWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
TERRENCE SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
14
MASON WOODSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
0
JARRIETT BUIEWR JURET
★3—00%-51—
86
ELI JOHNSONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
DYLAN STECKERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
JACKSON NAEVEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
APOLLO PAYNEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL70TAL75PERF70RET98n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL56TAL82PERF56RET75n=8 · 7 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸LB51TAL53PERF51RET73n=5 · 11 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸DB50TAL76PERF50RET96n=6 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
IOSE EPENESAHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
BURKE GAUTCHERHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
THOMAS MEYERHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
CARSON COONEYHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
TERRENCE SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LUCAS ALLGEYERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JOEY VANWETZINGAHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRAD FITZGIBBONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MASON WOODSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ELI JOHNSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYCE HAWTHORNESOUTH DAKOTA STATEDL★2★4
MARK GRONOWSKISOUTH DAKOTA STATEQBUNR★3
JONAH PACECENTRAL MICHIGANDL★3★3
BRYCE GEORGEFERRIS STATEOT★2★3
JEREMY HECKLINSKIWAKE FORESTQB★3★3
SHAHID BARROSSOUTH DAKOTACBUNR★3
TY HUDKINSPURDUES★3★3
SAM PHILLIPSCHATTANOOGAWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CADE MCNAMARAEAST TENNESSEE STATEQB★4★4
JOHN NESTORMINNESOTADB★3★3
JOHNNY PASCUZZITULANETEUNR★3
BRENDAN SULLIVANTULANEQB★3★3
LESHON WILLIAMSKANSASRB★3★3
CADEN CRAWFORDSOUTH DAKOTADE★3★3
JEFF BOWIESOUTH DAKOTADL★3★3
KALEB BROWNUABWR★4★3
MAX WHITEWYOMINGRBUNR★3
GRANT LEEPERMIAMI (OH)TE★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES64%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS37%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#38NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8805COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
922 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST36% BACK36th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG36% BACK36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST96%96th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE