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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG 12|MATT CAMPBELL|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
IOWA STATE35 FPIB12 · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
49FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
89%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-9IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#541 BC / 21
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT81
CONTINUITY89
DEFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT68
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
58MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 23AKANSAS STATE—W 24-21667070+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1AUG 30HSOUTH DAKOTA—W 55-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HIOWA#17W 16-13709292-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AARKANSAS STATE—W 24-16372626+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HARIZONA—W 39-14528080-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ACINCINNATI—L 30-38475959+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ACOLORADO—L 17-24793030+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HBYU#11L 27-41508787-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HARIZONA STATE—L 19-24775656+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ATCU#25W 20-17777373+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HKANSAS—W 38-14665757+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AOKLAHOMA STATE—W 20-13651111+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB30TAL98PERF30RET98ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
ROCCO BECHTQB SERET
★3★48898%+21ROSE
7
ALEX MANSKEQB FRTRUE FR
★4★3202%—FELL
5
CONNOR MOBERLYQB SORET
★3—00%——
14
MAJOR CANTRELLQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
16
WYATT BOHMQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL83PERF50RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
CARSON HANSENRB SERET
★3★39656%+3HELD
3
ABU SAMA IIIRB SERET
★3★38534%+15HELD
22
DYLAN LEERB SORET
★3★3527%-34HELD
21
AIDEN FLORARB SORET
UNR—353%+34—
25
EASTON MILLERRB JURET
UNR—111%——
22
RYVER PEPPERSRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
27
JAYDEN JACKSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
39
AJ PETERSENRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE56TAL85PERF56RET84ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
BENJAMIN BRAHMERTE SERET
★3★49635%+28ROSE
84
GABE BURKLETE SERET
★3★39127%0HELD
0
CHASE SOWELLWR SEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
★3★48431%+27ROSE
4
BRETT ESKILDSENWR JURET
★3★38431%+19HELD
82
TYLER MOORETE SERET
★3—8221%+2—
80
COOPER ALEXANDERTE SORET
★3★36510%-29HELD
3
XAVIER TOWNSENDWR SEPORTAL · UCF
★3★36312%-5HELD
6
ELI GREENWR SERET
UNR★36211%+27EMERGED
11
DOMINIC OVERBYWR SORET
★3—599%-32—
3
CARSON BROWNWR SERET
★3★3546%+26HELD
85
KEATON ROSKOPTE SORET
★3—535%——
41
RYLAN BARNESTE JURET
UNR—291%+12—
7
TRIPP WALSHTE SERET
★2—271%——
37
VINCE BENETTITE JURET
UNR—241%——
17
KAI BLACKTE SORET
★3★3201%—HELD
48
JACK BJORNTE SERET
UNR—140%——
2
ZAY ROBINSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★360%—HELD
89
TY CLAIBORNEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
JONATHAN VANDE WALLEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
16
DANIEL JACKSONWR SERET
★3★300%+4HELD
19
MICHAEL PARKESWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
88
DYLLAN MALONEWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
81
KARON BROOKINSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
23
CARSON ROBBINSWR SORET
UNR—00%——
47
CASH HAYDENTE SORET
UNR—00%——
83
SAM ZELENOVICHWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL62TAL73PERF62RET97n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL29TAL63PERF29RET63n=7 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸LB52TAL71PERF52RET90n=8 · 11 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸DB58TAL70PERF58RET72n=13 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX MANSKEHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
WILL TOMPKINSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
WILL HAWTHORNEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JACK LIMBAUGHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KA'MORI MOOREHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KUOL KUOL IIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ETHAN STECKERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
RYVER PEPPERSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ZAY ROBINSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOSHUA PATTERSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHASE SOWELLEAST CAROLINAWR★3★4
TRE BELLLINDENWOODCBUNR★3
DEREK JENSENWISCONSINOT★3★3
XAVIER TOWNSENDUCFWR★3★3
VONTROY MALONETULSAEDGEUNR★3
AUSTIN BARRETTINDIANAOT★3★3
CANNON BUTLERNORTHERN IOWAEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER ONYEDIMTEXAS A&MDT★3★4
JACOB ELLISCOLORADO STATELBUNR★3
JACK SADOWSKY VNORTHWESTERNLB★3★3
KENARD SNYDERTEXAS STATEDE★3★3
TRENT JONES IIUCONNDLUNR★3
ISAIAH ALSTONJAMES MADISONWRUNR★3
JALEN TRAVISNFL DRAFT R4OL★3—
JAYLIN NOELNFL DRAFT R3WR★3—
JAYDEN HIGGINSNFL DRAFT R2WRUNR—
DARIEN PORTERNFL DRAFT R3DB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES20%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS67%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#54NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8651COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
817 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST84% BACK84th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG84% BACK84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST72%72th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE