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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|MICHAEL DESORMEAUX|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
LOUISIANA89 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
31FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#890 BC / 20
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.1
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE48
PERFORMANCE48
TALENT37
CONTINUITY83
DEFENSE31
PERFORMANCE31
TALENT39
CONTINUITY86
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 38-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AOLD DOMINION—L 31-38122323+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16AUAB—W 41-21291212+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HBUFFALO—W 45-3881111+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AMINNESOTA—L 24-355953530BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HTEXAS STATE—W 34-30324747+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HGEORGIA STATE—L 17-20373434+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 33-20426464-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AARKANSAS STATE—L 17-37343737+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HSOUTHERN MISS—L 31-34231313+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ATROY—L 24-31278181-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HUL MONROE—W 52-211022+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 31-3464747+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB61TAL45PERF61RET100ROTATIONn=3 · 8 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONQB SERET
★3★37044%+30HELD
18
CHANDLER FIELDSQB SERET
★3—6938%+10—
10
BEN WOOLDRIDGEQB SERET
★2★25618%-13HELD
7
LUNCH WINFIELDQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
CHANTZ CEASERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB42TAL46PERF42RET91ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
JACOB KIBODIRB SERET
★3★38848%+17HELD
20
DRE WASHINGTONRB SERET
★3—7327%+18—
7
ZYLAN PERRYRB SERET
UNR★36417%-51EMERGED
32
BILL DAVISRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3498%+7—
27
KENDRELL WILLIAMSRB JURET
★3—91%——
22
CHAZ WARDRB SERET
UNR—00%——
40
DAMONDRICK BLACKBURNRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
23
TYLAN CITIZENRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE61TAL41PERF59RET72ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
NEAL JOHNSONTE SERET
★3—9852%+11—
29
PETER LEBLANCWR SERET
★3—8224%-19—
4
JACOB BERNARDWR SERET
★3—7922%+13—
7
TERRANCE CARTER JR.TE SERET
★3—7825%+44—
3
HARVEY BROUSSARD IIIWR SENO SNAPS
★3—7318%0—
0
ROBERT WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—7317%+19—
24
PEARSE MIGLTE SERET
UNR—6716%-2—
13
CHARLES ROBERTSONWR JURET
★3★36110%+9HELD
6
KALEB CARTERWR SERET
★2—392%——
80
TAVION SMITHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—382%——
30
TRAYV'ON CULBERTWR JURET
UNR—382%——
82
RHETT GUIDRYTE JURET
★3—363%——
88
CADEN JENSENTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—292%——
11
DALEN CAMBREWR SERET
UNR—281%——
18
TY STAMEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3271%—HELD
9
KEDARIUS WADEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
8
JAYDON JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—130%——
19
DALE MARTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
DAMANI BURRELLTE SERET
UNR—00%——
9
LANCE LEGENDREWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
84
JATHAN CALDWELLTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
26
CALEB BONINETE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
11
AJ JAYROEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
88
TYLER HATCHERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
85
LANDON BAPTISTEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
KANYON ST. JULIENWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL31PERF65RET93n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL32TAL31PERF32RET81n=8 · 7 METRICS · 33 OBS
▸LB44TAL55PERF44RET100n=8 · 11 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸DB38TAL33PERF38RET73n=11 · 8 METRICS · 63 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HARVEY BROUSSARD IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BILL DAVISHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CHASE EDWARDSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JEREMIAH MOSESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KODY JACKSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
COOPER FORDHAMHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JOHN BRAGGHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
AJ JAYROEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAY'VEON HAYNESHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
XZAVIER BROWNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN1 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREY FITESMUEDGEUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT27 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAM PEDESCLEAUXTULANESUNRUNR
TREY AMOSALABAMACB★3★4
BRANDON BISHOPLIBERTYDBUNRUNR
ERROL ROGERS JR.LIBERTYWR★3★2
DONTAE FLEMINGTULANEWR★3★3
ZY MCDONALDJACKSON STATEQB★3★3
DAVID HUDSONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
BRALEN TRAHANELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
ZI'YON HILL-GREENELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
JOURDAN QUIBODEAUXELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES30%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#89NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8376COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
17 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR93%93th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST73%73th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE