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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|MICHAEL DESORMEAUX|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
LOUISIANA103 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
34FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#810 BC / 20
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-2.9
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE19
PERFORMANCE19
TALENT44
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT42
CONTINUITY80
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HRICE—L 12-14231212+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HMCNEESE—W 34-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AMISSOURI—L 10-52858585-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 31-34321313+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HMARSHALL—W 54-51363737-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AJAMES MADISON#19L 14-2488181-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HSOUTHERN MISS—L 10-22403131-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ATROY—L 23-35283636-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 31-22261616+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HTEXAS STATE—W 42-39455353-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20AARKANSAS STATE—W 34-30372626-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HUL MONROE—W 30-271044+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17ADELAWARE—L 13-2042020+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB51TAL37PERF51RET89ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
LUNCH WINFIELDQB JURET
UNR—7765%-4—
11
DANIEL BEALEQB SORET
★3—6424%-52—
14
WALKER HOWARDQB SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★35312%-55FELL
16
SAM ALTMANNQB SORET
UNR—00%——
15
COLEMAN CARTERQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB27TAL42PERF28RET90ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
ZYLAN PERRYRB SERET
UNR★39146%-2EMERGED
32
BILL DAVISRB JURET
★3★39045%-11—
24
STEVEN BLANCORB SORET
★3—569%+22—
0
DARRELL SMITHRB FRTRUE FR
★3—161%——
25
HUTCH SWILLEYRB FRRET
★3—00%——
20
JJ GARNERRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL28PERF38RET47ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
CADEN JENSENTE JURET
★2—9749%-21—
83
BROCK CHAPPELLTE SEPORTAL · FURMAN
UNR★38532%+10EMERGED
6
SHELTON SAMPSON JR.WR JUPORTAL · LSU
★4★38323%+28FELL
0
ROBERT WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—8222%-2—
13
CHARLES ROBERTSONWR JURET
★3★38021%-16HELD
86
TREY MILLERTE SEPORTAL · WAYNE STATE
UNR★37118%-8EMERGED
8
JAYDON JOHNSONWR SERET
★3—6510%-37—
17
LANDON STROTHERWR SORET
UNR—628%-50—
19
DALE MARTINWR SERET
UNR—576%+32—
2
RAHJI DENNISWR SORET
★3—524%-57—
9
KEDARIUS WADEWR JURET
UNR—474%——
85
LANDON BAPTISTEWR JURET
UNR—332%——
4
TRENTON CHANEYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—281%——
44
TEDDY GAWLIKTE SORET
UNR—121%——
15
JA'CORIAN NORRISWR SORET
★3—00%——
46
EMILIANO SOLDEVILLATE JURET
UNR—00%——
10
RUSSELL BABINEAUXWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
80
KHRISTIAN MACKINTRUSHTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
82
QUANDRE COATESTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
84
EVAN STROMANWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
JAIDEN SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
43
AIDEN FALGOUTTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL31TAL49PERF31RET88n=8 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL33TAL41PERF33RET83n=10 · 7 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB25TAL54PERF25RET99n=6 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB36TAL35PERF36RET66n=10 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYDEN GLOSTENHS RECRUITS★3UNR
RUSSELL BABINEAUXHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KHRISTIAN MACKINTRUSHHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JJ GARNERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
EVAN STROMANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHASE HOWARDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CAM RILEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
QUANDRE COATESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
TRENTON CHANEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BRENT GORDON JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SHELTON SAMPSON JR.LSUWR★4★3
WALKER HOWARDOLE MISSQB★4★3
BROCK CHAPPELLFURMANTEUNR★3
TREY MILLERWAYNE STATETEUNR★3
TRAE TOMLINSONRICHMONDCB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARMYCAH GLASSHOUSTONLB★3★3
JUSTIN AGULOUISVILLECBUNR★3
TERRANCE CARTER JR.TEXAS TECHTE★3UNR
HARVEY BROUSSARD IIIHOUSTONWR★3UNR
CALEB ANDERSONMICHIGANDB★3★3
DRE WASHINGTONALABAMARB★3UNR
TY STAMEYTEXAS STATETE★3★3
DEVRON WILLIAMS JR.UTSAOL★3UNR
TYLAN CITIZENALCORN STATERBUNRUNR
LANDON BURTONELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES39%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS71%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#81NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8417COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
512 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST58% BACK58th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG58% BACK58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR88%88th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR88%88th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST66%66th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE