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● LIVE|2023 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|CHARLES HUFF|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
MARSHALL92 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
31FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1250 BC / 18
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-4.9
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE23
PERFORMANCE23
TALENT39
CONTINUITY71
DEFENSE63
PERFORMANCE63
TALENT42
CONTINUITY61
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
51MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HUALBANY—W 21-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AEAST CAROLINA—W 31-13451717+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HVIRGINIA TECH—W 24-17586666-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HOLD DOMINION—W 41-35122323+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ANC STATE#21L 41-48737171-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AGEORGIA STATE—L 24-41373434-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HJAMES MADISON—L 9-2058686-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 6-34394949-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AAPP STATE—L 9-31396161-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 38-33233939-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ASOUTH ALABAMA—L 0-28426464-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HARKANSAS STATE—W 35-21343737-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 19HUTSA—L 17-35476464-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB48TAL45PERF48RET75ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
CAM FANCHERQB SERET
★3★38875%+1HELD
12
COLE PENNINGTONQB JURET
★3—6325%-27—
13
TJ MCMAHONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★200%+25EMERGED
14
COLIN PARACHEKQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
CHASE HARRISONQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
18
JACK SCHIERHOLZQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB31TAL8PERF31RET98ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
RASHEEN ALIRB JURET
★2—9865%+32—
28
ETHAN PAYNERB SERET
★2—8031%-6—
44
ANTWAN ROBERTS JR.RB SENO SNAPS
★3★3272%—HELD
2
A.J. TURNERRB SERET
★3★3212%+32HELD
27
MAURICE JONESRB FRRET
★3—60%——
29
C.J. FAZIORB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
6
DEMARCUS MCELROYRB JURET
UNR—00%——
0
RANDY YOUNGRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL37PERF58RET46ROTATIONn=10 · 7 METRICS · 57 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
CADE CONLEYTE JUPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
UNR★38043%+22EMERGED
86
CHRIS MOTTILLOTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—8042%-25—
2
JAYDEN HARRISONWR SERET
★3★37816%+9HELD
16
CALEB COOMBSWR SERET
★3★37615%-16HELD
3
CHUCK MONTGOMERYWR SERET
★3★37314%-5HELD
4
DEMARCUS HARRISWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37314%+24HELD
5
CALEB MCMILLANWR JURET
★2—7313%+15—
6
DARRYLE SIMMONSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37213%-15HELD
1
TALIK KEATONWR SERET
★3—586%-8—
3
MASON PIERCEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—576%+18—
83
SEAN SALLISTE JURET
★3★3467%—HELD
80
LUKE SOTOTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★2436%—EMERGED
3
BRYAN ROBINSONWR SERET
★3—372%——
88
RAHMOD SMITHTE SORET
★3—131%——
84
ANTWAAN MAYSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3100%—HELD
81
TOBY PAYNETE SERET
★2—00%——
41
LOGAN HOWELLWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
19
MARCUS VELEZTE SERET
UNR—00%——
0
CAM PEDROWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
85
BEAU BLANKENSHIPTE JURET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
11
SEAN REESEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
TRACY STEPHENSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
JUSTIN HAGGERTYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
GERALD CAMPBELLWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
38
K.J. JONESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL46TAL43PERF46RET75n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL61TAL33PERF61RET68n=11 · 8 METRICS · 64 OBS
▸LB66TAL42PERF66RET48n=4 · 10 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸DB54TAL49PERF54RET45n=9 · 6 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AHMERE FOSTERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAYVEN HALLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JADEN YATESHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ANTWAAN MAYSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CJ DAVISHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CALEB CLARK-GLOVERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BENI TSHITAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ISAAC CLARYHS RECRUITOT★2UNR
ALEC CLARKHS RECRUITPUNRUNR
NATHAN TOTTENHS RECRUITPUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRIS THOMASFLORIDADLUNR★3
STEPHEN DIX JR.FLORIDA STATELBUNR★4
KESEAN BROWNAPP STATELB★3★3
LLOYD WILLISFLORIDA STATEOT★3★3
ALTRIQUE BARLOWTCUOT★3★3
MYLES BELLUCONNCB★3★3
J.J. ROBERTSWAKE FORESTCB★3★3
JALIL RIVERA-HARVEYARIZONA STATEDLUNR★3
LANDYN WATSONTCUEDGE★3★3
KOLBY MORGANTENNESSEEPUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT40 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDRE' SAMLSUSUNRUNR
EJ JACKSONAPP STATES★3★3
IMMANUEL BUSHJAMES MADISONDL★3★3
EMMANUEL BALOGUNCHARLOTTEDL★3★3
EJ HORTON JR.WEST VIRGINIAWR★3★3
JACK MURPHYAPP STATEOL★3★2
DAN FOSTER JR.TEXAS STATELB★3UNR
DAINSUS MILLERMERCERCB★3★3
STEVEN GILMOREELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
CEDRICE PAILLANTELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES60%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS52%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#125NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8293COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1114 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST48% BACK48th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG48% BACK48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR75%75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR75%75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST45%45th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE