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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|CHUCK MARTIN|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
MIAMI (OH)110 FPIMAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
10%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#770 BC / 18
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-2.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT49
CONTINUITY10
DEFENSE22
PERFORMANCE22
TALENT38
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
29MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3AKENTUCKY—L 13-37818282-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HROBERT MORRIS—W 31-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17HCINCINNATI—L 17-38658282-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24ANORTHWESTERN—W 17-14671616+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1ABUFFALO—L 20-24162626-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HKENT STATE—W 27-24191818+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15ABOWLING GREEN—L 13-172377+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 10-163188+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29AAKRON—W 27-93233+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HOHIO—L 21-37153535-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 29-232166+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HBALL STATE—W 18-17131313+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16AUAB—L 20-24294747-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB42TAL50PERF42RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
AVEON SMITHQB SERET
★3★37564%-42HELD
5
BRETT GABBERTQB SERET
★3★36535%+26HELD
12
HENRY HESSONQB SERET
★3—111%——
4
BEN TARPEYQB JURET
UNR—00%——
16
ORIN EDWARDSQB SORET
★3—00%——
10
ZANE RIESQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
JOSEPH HUMPHREYSQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
19
MATT MACLEODQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB18TAL24PERF18RET99ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
KEVIN DAVISRB SERET
★2★27729%+28HELD
4
TYRE SHELTONRB JURET
★2★27325%-16HELD
3
KEYON MOZEERB SERET
★3★37123%-26HELD
9
KENNY TRACYRB SERET
★3—6619%-2—
1
JAYLON BESTERRB SERET
★2—282%-16—
6
JORDAN BRUNSONRB SENO SNAPS
★3—211%——
24
DAREZ SNIDERRB FRRET
★3—00%——
23
NATE MILANOWSKIRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
24
DANNY DUNLOPRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE36TAL42PERF37RET73ROTATIONn=7 · 8 METRICS · 34 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
MAC HIPPENHAMMERWR SERET
★3—9538%+25—
14
JALEN WALKERWR SERET
UNR—8529%+6—
89
JACK COLDIRONTE SERET
★3—8436%-4—
13
MILES MARSHALLWR SENO SNAPS
★3—8428%+14—
81
MATT BJORSONTE SENO SNAPS
★3—6720%+6—
47
LUKE BOLDENTE SERET
★2—6217%——
88
NATE MUERSCHTE SERET
★3—5714%-22—
80
JACK DEJARLDTE JURET
UNR—5110%——
1
REGGIE VIRGILWR SENO SNAPS
★3★4342%—ROSE
25
DEVON DORSEYWR SORET
★3★3281%—HELD
11
JAVON TRACYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3261%—HELD
44
RHETT WILLIAMSTE SORET
★3—232%——
37
SCOTTY NIEMANTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—221%——
84
ASHTON DUNCANTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
6
AUSTIN ROBINSONWR SORET
★3—00%——
87
TREY LABOUNTYTE SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
34
CHRIS CAVALARISWR JURET
UNR—00%——
22
MATT REARDONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
83
ANGELO BUTTSWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
29
JAMES BESETTWR SORET
UNR—00%——
15
KAMELL SMITHWR FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
36
JEFFREY SIMMONSTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
BRIAN SHANETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JACKSON IZZARDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
SAM BARRYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
39
AJ MIRGONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
CHASE BECKERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL36TAL54PERF36RET18n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL33TAL43PERF33RET69n=7 · 7 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB41TAL28PERF41RET50n=5 · 11 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB38TAL35PERF38RET64n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOE HUMPHREYSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JEFFREY SIMMONSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAVON TRACYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MALACHI CLARKHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
GRANT LYONSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ELI COPPESSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ASHTON DUNCANHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ADAM TRICKHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ROWAN ZOLMANHS RECRUITS★3UNR
GAVIN ROHRSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAMES BURNSAUSTIN PEAYWR★2★3
AJ MAYERARKANSAS STATEQB★3UNR
CECIL SINGLETON JR.LOUISIANA TECHDB★3UNR
KAM BUTLERVIRGINIADE★3UNR
LONNIE PHELPSKANSASDE★3UNR
TREVON BOOKERELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
CEDRIC BOSWELLELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
JACK SORENSONELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
ANDREW HOMERELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
BEN KIMPLERELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#77NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8338COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR18%18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE