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HOME›TEAMS›MICHIGAN STATE›2020TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2020 FINAL
BIG TEN|MEL TUCKER|—RECORD2-5|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE83 FPIB1G · 2020 SEASON
TALENT
76FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#430 BC / 24
BC RATIO
15%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
2-5ACTUALvs1.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-17.1
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE7 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
76MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
8OCT 24HRUTGERS—L 27-38551717+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 31AMICHIGAN—W 27-24908080-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 7AIOWA#16L 7-49699191-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 14HINDIANA#12L 0-24638181-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 28HNORTHWESTERN#10W 29-20677676-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 5HOHIO STATE#2L 12-5299100100-62BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 12APENN STATE—L 24-39938888-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET5NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
PAYTON THORNEQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
12
ROCKY LOMBARDIQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
12
THEO DAYQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
16
ELI MCLEANQB SORET
UNR—00%——
1
NOAH KIMQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
ANDREW SCHORFHAARQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET93NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
ANTHONY WILLIAMS JR.RB SORET
★3★300%——
11
CONNOR HEYWARDRB JURET
★3—00%——
9
JORDON SIMMONSRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
24
ELIJAH COLLINSRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
23
ANDRE WELCHRB JURET
UNR—00%——
39
ALANTE THOMASRB SERET
UNR—00%——
7
DONOVAN EAGLINRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
25
JOSEPH MARTINEZRB SENO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
49
MAX ROSENTHALTE JURET
UNR—00%——
TRE'VON MORGANWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
9
TRENTON GILLISONTE JURET
★4—00%——
17
TRE MOSLEYWR SERET
★3—00%——
11
RICKY WHITE IIIWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
MONTORIE FOSTER JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
1
JAYDEN REEDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
3
TERRY LOCKETT JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
CADE MCDONALDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
MATT DOTSONTE SERET
★4—00%——
97
TYLER HUNTTE YRRET
UNR—00%——
8
JALEN NAILORWR SORET
★3—00%——
41
REID BURTONTE SERET
★2—00%——
13
CJ HAYESWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
LARESS NELSONWR SERET
★2—00%——
87
JAHZ WATTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
JAVEZ ALEXANDERWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
81
PARKS GISSINGERTE SERET
★3—00%——
44
ADAM BERGHORSTTE JURET
★3—00%——
84
TOMMY GUAJARDOTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
10
IAN STEWARTWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
44
EVAN MORRISTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
85
SEBASTIAN BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
80
ZACH GILLESPIEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
NICK HUNTERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
AUBREY DAWKINSWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
47
JACKSON MORSETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS24 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RICKY WHITE IIIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DARIUS SNOWHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
DALLAS FINCHERHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
TERRY LOCKETTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JORDON SIMMONSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DEVIN HIGHTOWERHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
IAN STEWARTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANGELO GROSEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TOMMY GUAJARDOHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
SIMEON BARROW JR.HS RECRUITWDE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LA'DARIUS JEFFERSONWESTERN MICHIGANRB★3UNR
BRANDON BOUYER-RANDLETEXAS TECHLB★3UNR
JOSIAH SCOTTNFL DRAFT R4CB★3—
KENNY WILLEKESNFL DRAFT R7DEUNR—
JAKE HARTBARGERELIGIBILITY UPPUNR—
BRANDON SOWARDSELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
TYRIQ THOMPSONELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
MATT SEYBERTELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
JOSH BUTLERELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
DAVID DOWELLELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#43NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8531COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST40% BACK40th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG40% BACK40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR5%5th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
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