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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
BIG TEN|P.J. FLECK|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
MINNESOTA67 FPIB1G · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
59FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#452 BC / 26
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT60
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE12
PERFORMANCE12
TALENT69
CONTINUITY69
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNEBRASKA—W 13-10855151+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 25-6161818+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ANORTH CAROLINA—L 13-31887171-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ANORTHWESTERN—L 34-37634848+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HLOUISIANA—W 35-243153530BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HMICHIGAN#1L 10-5291100100-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21AIOWA#24W 12-10716666-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HMICHIGAN STATE—W 27-12813434+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HILLINOIS—L 26-27554444+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11APURDUE—L 30-49663232+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AOHIO STATE#10L 3-37999898-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HWISCONSIN—L 14-28797878-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HBOWLING GREEN—W 30-24182929+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB29TAL45PERF29RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
ATHAN KALIAKMANISQB SERET
★4★38395%-18FELL
12
COLE KRAMERQB SERET
★3—295%-26—
13
DREW VIOTTOQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
MAX SHIKENJANSKIQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾RB56TAL64PERF56RET55ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
JORDAN NUBINRB SERET
UNR★38232%-21EMERGED
1
DARIUS TAYLORRB SENO SNAPS
★4—8131%+19—
2
SEAN TYLERRB SEPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN
★3★36314%+16HELD
21
BRYCE WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3—6012%-12—
26
ZACH EVANSRB SORET
★3★35610%-26HELD
24
MARQUESE WILLIAMSRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
34
MAX GRANDRB FRRET
★2★200%—HELD
28
CORTEZ LEGRANTRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE40TAL67PERF39RET77ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
BREVYN SPANN-FORDTE SERET
★3—9758%+25—
9
DANIEL JACKSONWR SERET
★4—9336%+26—
87
NICK KALLERUPTE SERET
UNR—8132%——
4
COREY CROOMS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—7925%+13—
11
ELIJAH SPENCERWR SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
★3★47320%+22ROSE
7
CHRIS AUTMAN-BELLWR SERET
★3—5910%+23—
0
LE'MEKE BROCKINGTONWR SERET
★3—579%+32—
86
JAMESON GEERSTE SERET
★3—559%——
17
KENRIC LANIER IIWR SENO SNAPS
★3★360%—HELD
44
FRANK BIERMANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
83
DINO KALIAKMANISWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
82
WYATT SCHROEDERTE JURET
★2—00%——
13
KRISTEN HOSKINSWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
81
QUENTIN REDDINGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
NATHAN JONESTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
17
CADE CONZEMIUSWR SORET
UNR—00%——
19
PIERCE WALSHTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
SAM PETERSTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
DONIELLE HAYESWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
TERRENCE MCWILLIAMS JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
28
ZACH JORGENSENWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
84
JACK DISANOTE JURET
UNR—00%——
83
CADE OSTERMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▸OL46TAL56PERF46RET91n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL42TAL76PERF42RET90n=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB38TAL63PERF38RET51n=5 · 10 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB43TAL67PERF43RET59n=10 · 6 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DARIUS TAYLORHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
JEROME WILLIAMSHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
GREG JOHNSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DONIELLE HAYESHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARQUESE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KENRIC LANIER IIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ZA'QUAN BRYANHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
PHILLIP DANIELSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
KARTER MENZHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MARTIN OWUSUHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ELIJAH SPENCERCHARLOTTEWR★3★4
JACK HENDERSONSE LOUISIANASUNR★3
SEAN TYLERWESTERN MICHIGANRB★3★3
RYAN SELIGWESTERN MICHIGANLB★2★3
COREY CROOMSWESTERN MICHIGANWRUNR★3
CHRIS COLLINSNORTH CAROLINAEDGE★3★3
CRAIG MCDONALDAUBURNS★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRILL CARTERTEXASDL★3★3
FLIP DIXONRUTGERSDB★3UNR
BRAELEN OLIVERGEORGIA TECHLB★3★3
BEANIE BISHOP JR.WEST VIRGINIACB★2UNR
MICHAEL BROWN-STEPHENSSOUTH FLORIDAWR★3UNR
DONALD WILLISWESTERN MICHIGANLB★3★3
DYLAN WRIGHTTCUWR★4★3
TREY POTTSPENN STATERB★3★3
GAGE KEYSKANSASDL★3★3
AUSTIN BOOKERKANSASDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES82%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS53%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#45NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8483COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1018 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST34% BACK34th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG34% BACK34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR91%91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST59%59th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE