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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|P.J. FLECK|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
MINNESOTA31 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
68FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#373 BC / 25
BC RATIO
13%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT75
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE94
PERFORMANCE94
TALENT72
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
66MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HNORTH CAROLINA—L 17-19856464+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HRHODE ISLAND—W 48-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HNEVADA—W 27-0231313+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HIOWA—L 14-31728989-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AMICHIGAN—L 24-27898181-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HUSC—W 24-17908383-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AUCLA—W 21-17804444+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HMARYLAND—W 48-23643636+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AILLINOIS#16W 25-17557777+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9ARUTGERS—L 19-26586969+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HPENN STATE#5L 25-26939797-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AWISCONSIN—W 24-7815656+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 3AVIRGINIA TECH—W 24-10637878+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL92PERF41RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
16
MAX BROSMERQB SEPORTAL · NEW HAMPSHIRE
★2★49399%—ROSE
5
DRAKE LINDSEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—141%——
14
DYLAN WITTKEQB SEPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH
★3★300%—HELD
6
MAX SHIKENJANSKIQB SERET
★2—00%——
21
JEREMIAH FINALYQB FRTRUE FR
★2★200%—HELD
▾RB56TAL76PERF56RET71ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DARIUS TAYLORRB SERET
★4—9965%+9—
24
MARCUS MAJORRB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★37925%-1FELL
27
JORDAN NUBINRB SERET
UNR★3537%-32EMERGED
8
JAREN MANGHAMRB SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★4★3353%+2FELL
5
SIEH BANGURARB SEPORTAL · OHIO
★3★3161%-12HELD
2
FAME IJEBOIRB SONO SNAPS
★3★350%—HELD
21
JAYDON WRIGHTRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
28
CORTEZ LEGRANTRB JURET
UNR—00%——
40
ZANDER ROCKOWRB SORET
★2★200%—HELD
33
KAEDEN JOHNSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE33TAL81PERF36RET93ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DANIEL JACKSONWR SERET
★4—9732%+27—
11
ELIJAH SPENCERWR SERET
★3★49530%+15ROSE
0
LE'MEKE BROCKINGTONWR SERET
★3—9529%+13—
86
JAMESON GEERSTE SERET
★3—9246%-5—
87
NICK KALLERUPTE SERET
UNR—8939%+14—
44
FRANK BIERMANTE SERET
UNR—5711%——
4
CRISTIAN DRIVERWR JUPORTAL · PENN STATE
★4★4576%-51HELD
17
KENRIC LANIER IIWR SERET
★3★3453%—HELD
83
NATHAN JONESTE JURET
★3★3272%—HELD
18
DONIELLE HAYESWR SERET
★3—271%——
84
JACK DISANOTE JURET
UNR—231%——
82
JULIAN JOHNSONTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—90%——
88
JACOB SIMPSONTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—70%——
82
TERRENCE MCWILLIAMS JR.WR JURET
★3—00%——
13
KRISTEN HOSKINSWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
82
TYLER WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
81
QUENTIN REDDINGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
CADE CONZEMIUSWR SORET
UNR—00%——
19
PIERCE WALSHTE SERET
★3—00%——
83
SAM PETERSTE SERET
★3—00%——
8
JALEN SMITHWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL46TAL66PERF46RET73n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL57TAL77PERF57RET87n=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB49TAL56PERF49RET100n=4 · 10 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB61TAL73PERF61RET64n=10 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOI PERICHHS RECRUITS★4UNR
NATHAN ROYHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
RILEY SUNRAMHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
BRETT CARROLLHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JULIAN JOHNSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MO SAINEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JALEN SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACOB SIMPSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
FAME IJEBOIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DRAKE LINDSEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAXON HOWARDLSUEDGE★4★4
TYLER WILLIAMSGEORGIAWRUNR★4
MAX BROSMERNEW HAMPSHIREQB★2★4
SIEH BANGURAOHIORB★3★3
ETHAN ROBINSONBUCKNELLCBUNR★3
ADAM KISSAYICLEMSONEDGE★3★3
CRISTIAN DRIVERPENN STATEWR★4★3
MARCUS MAJOROKLAHOMARB★4★3
ALUMA NKELEUTEPOTUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ATHAN KALIAKMANISRUTGERSQB★4★3
TARIQ WATSONUABCB★3★3
TYLER BRIDEJACKSONVILLE STATES★3★3
ZACH EVANSNORTH TEXASRB★3★3
TYLER NUBINNFL DRAFT R2DB★4—
NATHAN BOEELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
TRE'VON JONESELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
KYLER BAUGHELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
BREVYN SPANN-FORDELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
CHRIS COLLINSELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES46%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS78%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#37NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8564COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1218 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST39% BACK39th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG39% BACK39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR73%73th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE