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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
BIG TEN|P.J. FLECK|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
MINNESOTA65 FPIB1G · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
71FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
58%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
85%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#493 BC / 22
BC RATIO
16%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.2
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE39
PERFORMANCE39
TALENT74
CONTINUITY58
DEFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT72
CONTINUITY85
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
58MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HBUFFALO—W 23-10193030+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 66-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13ACALIFORNIA—L 14-27744141+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HRUTGERS—W 31-28624747+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AOHIO STATE#5L 3-42999999-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HPURDUE—W 27-20613434+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17HNEBRASKA—W 24-6866666-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25AIOWA#17L 3-41709292-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HMICHIGAN STATE—W 23-20734040+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14AOREGON#4L 13-42979898-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ANORTHWESTERN—L 35-38596363-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HWISCONSIN—W 17-7803838+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26HNEW MEXICO—W 20-1754747+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL71PERF58RET98ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
DRAKE LINDSEYQB JURET
★3—9198%+12—
6
MAX SHIKENJANSKIQB SERET
★2—181%——
14
DYLAN WITTKEQB SERET
★3★3101%—HELD
9
EMMETT MOREHEADQB SEPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
★3★300%-26HELD
12
JACKSON KOLLOCKQB FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
▾RB60TAL74PERF60RET72ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DARIUS TAYLORRB SERET
★4—9445%+6—
2
FAME IJEBOIRB SORET
★3★37927%-24HELD
23
CAM DAVISRB SENO SNAPS
★4—7219%+7—
21
GRANT WASHINGTONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—434%+29—
2
A.J. TURNERRB SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★3363%+35HELD
9
XAVIER FORDRB SONO SNAPS
★3—262%-51—
34
JOHANN CARDENASRB FRPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★300%—HELD
22
TRE BERRYRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE43TAL73PERF45RET43ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
JAMESON GEERSTE SERET
★3—9138%-13—
11
JAVON TRACYWR SEPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
★3★39029%+12HELD
0
LE'MEKE BROCKINGTONWR SERET
★3—8828%-2—
87
DREW BIBERTE SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★37925%-27HELD
8
JALEN SMITHWR JURET
★3—7921%+20—
19
PIERCE WALSHTE SERET
★3—7521%-45—
17
LOGAN LOYAWR SEPORTAL · UCLA
★4★36410%+5FELL
44
FRANK BIERMANTE SERET
UNR—6010%-37—
16
MALACHI COLEMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3608%-2FELL
17
KENRIC LANIER IIWR SERET
★3★3504%-23HELD
82
JULIAN JOHNSONTE JURET
★3—423%——
88
JACOB SIMPSONTE JURET
★3—403%——
18
QUENTIN REDDINGWR SERET
UNR—110%——
18
DONIELLE HAYESWR SERET
★3—60%——
83
SAM PETERSTE SERET
★3—00%——
84
JACK DISANOTE JURET
UNR—00%——
4
CRISTIAN DRIVERWR JURET
★4★400%-51HELD
13
BRADLEY MARTINOWR SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
7
LEGEND LYONSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL57TAL75PERF57RET62n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL70TAL80PERF70RET86n=7 · 8 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸LB73TAL59PERF73RET89n=7 · 11 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB48TAL72PERF48RET78n=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EMMANUEL KARMOHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
BRADLEY MARTINOHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
JACKSON KOLLOCKHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JAY'QUAN STUBBSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ENOCH ATEWOGBOLAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ETHAN STENDELHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
LEGEND LYONSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
XAVIER FORDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MARK HANDYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ABU TARAWALLIEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALACHI COLEMANNEBRASKAWRUNR★3
JOHN NESTORIOWACB★3★3
A.J. TURNERMARSHALLRB★3★3
MARCELLUS MARSHALLUCFIOL★3★3
LOGAN LOYAUCLAWR★4★3
DREW BIBERPURDUETE★3★3
DYLAN RAYKENTUCKYIOLUNR★3
JAVON TRACYMIAMI (OH)WR★3★3
STEVEN CURTISILLINOIS STATEDL★3★3
KAHLEE TAFAIWASHINGTONOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PHILLIP DANIELSOHIO STATEOL★3★4
COLEMAN BRYSONNORTH CAROLINADB★3★3
MARTES LEWISNORTHWESTERNOL★3★3
JORDAN NUBINKENT STATERBUNR★3
NATHAN JONESABILENE CHRISTIANTE★3★3
TYLER STOLSKYFLORIDA ATLANTICLB★3★3
LUTHER MCCOYHAWAI'IDL★3★3
HAYDEN SCHWARTZMONTANADL★3★3
SIEH BANGURAOHIORB★3★3
MARTIN OWUSUFRESNO STATEDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES47%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS59%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#49NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8627COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2120 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST39% BACK39th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG39% BACK39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR62%62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR98%98th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST78%78th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE