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HOME›TEAMS›NC STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
ACC|DAVE DOEREN|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
NC STATE#21 AP 36 FPIACC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
73FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#433 BC / 15
BC RATIO
27%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs8.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.7
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE60
PERFORMANCE60
TALENT71
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE83
PERFORMANCE83
TALENT76
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
60MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AUCONN—W 24-14331010+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HNOTRE DAME#14L 24-45939595-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HVMI—W 45-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 22AVIRGINIA—W 24-21532121+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HLOUISVILLE#19L 10-13807575-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HMARSHALL—W 48-41312626+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ADUKE—L 3-24527878-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HCLEMSON#20W 24-17978484-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HMIAMI—W 20-6928080-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AWAKE FOREST—W 26-6502828+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AVIRGINIA TECH—W 35-28586666+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNORTH CAROLINA—W 39-208871710BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28AKANSAS STATE#18L 19-28519090-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB79TAL80PERF79RET30ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
BRENNAN ARMSTRONGQB SEPORTAL · VIRGINIA
★3★48070%+14ROSE
19
MJ MORRISQB SERET
★4★36530%-18FELL
13
ETHAN RHODESQB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
LEX THOMASQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
19
COLE WILSONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB51TAL77PERF51RET79ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
JULIAN GRAYRB SERET
★3★47213%-32ROSE
6
KENDRICK RAPHAELRB SENO SNAPS
★3★47429%-18ROSE
34
DELBERT MIMMS IIIRB SERET
★3★37125%-26HELD
21
MICHAEL ALLENRB SERET
★4★47125%-8HELD
6
JORDAN HOUSTONRB SERET
★3★35914%-24HELD
28
DEMARCUS JONES IIRB SERET
UNR—467%-42—
3
JORDAN POOLERB JURET
★4—00%——
25
DARIUS JOHNSONRB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
22
MICAH CROWELLRB SORET
★4—00%——
31
COLESON FIELDSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE77TAL64PERF64RET57ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
KC CONCEPCIONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★49323%+30ROSE
15
KEYON LESANEWR SERET
★3—9022%-43—
9
PORTER ROOKSWR SERET
★4★37112%-38FELL
6
TRENT PENNIXTE SERET
★3—6747%+37—
80
BRADLEY ROZNERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—659%+25—
3
DACARI COLLINSWR SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★4★3648%-3FELL
4
TERRELL TIMMONS JR.WR SERET
★3★3628%+3HELD
49
REID MITCHELLTE SORET
UNR—6031%——
15
CHRIS TOUDLETE SERET
★3★35320%+30HELD
9
ANTHONY SMITHWR SERET
★3★3473%-37HELD
21
JALEN COITWR JURET
★3★3362%—HELD
14
CEDD SEABROUGHTE SORET
★3—111%-40—
83
JOSH CRABTREEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
5
JUICE VEREENTE SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
11
JAKOLBE BALDWINWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
35
CHRISTOPHER SCOTT JR.WR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
88
JACKSON DESILVAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
48
FRED SEABROUGH JR.TE SORET
★3—00%——
27
ASHTON LOCKLEARWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
GRIFFIN REIMERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
JAYDEN HOLLARWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
31
JAXON GODBEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
ELI CALHOUNWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL70TAL71PERF71RET89n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL72TAL86PERF72RET85n=7 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB67TAL71PERF67RET100n=4 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB70TAL74PERF70RET56n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAEMON FAGANHS RECRUITS★4UNR
JUICE VEREENHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
ZACK MYERSHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
DARION RIVERSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KENDRICK RAPHAELHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRANDON CISSEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KC CONCEPCIONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ISAIAH SHIRLEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KAMEN SMITHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KAMAL BONNERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRENNAN ARMSTRONGVIRGINIAQB★3★4
DACARI COLLINSCLEMSONWR★4★3
DAWSON JARAMILLOOREGONOT★4★3
ROBERT KENNEDYEAST CAROLINASUNR★3
NOAH POTTERCINCINNATIDL★4★3
BRAYDEN NARVESONWESTERN KENTUCKYK★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVIN LEARYKENTUCKYQB★4★4
JOSHUA HARRISOLE MISSDL★4★3
DEVIN CARTERWEST VIRGINIAWR★3★4
BEN FINLEYCALIFORNIAQB★3★3
DEMIE SUMO-KARNGBAYEKENTUCKYRB★3★4
ZYUN REEVESLOUISIANA TECHDL★3★3
CLAUDE LARKINSFLORIDA INTERNATIONALDL★3★3
TANNER INGLEELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
CHANDLER ZAVALAELIGIBILITY UPGUNR—
CYRUS FAGANELIGIBILITY UPS★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES44%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS55%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#43NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8746COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
612 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST45% BACK45th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG45% BACK45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR89%89th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR30%30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST56%56th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE