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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|JEFF CHOATE|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
NEVADA123 FPIMWC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
14FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
46%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#880 BC / 29
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-9.9
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT42
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE21
PERFORMANCE21
TALENT33
CONTINUITY46
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
45MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30APENN STATE—L 11-46939090-75BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HSACRAMENTO STATE—W 20-173———NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—L 13-142077+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20AWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 16-31285050-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AFRESNO STATE—L 17-20355151-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HSAN DIEGO STATE—L 10-44386969-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ANEW MEXICO—L 22-2454747-32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24HBOISE STATE—L 3-24425353-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AUTAH STATE—L 14-51184242-27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 55-10211313+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AWYOMING—W 13-7151919-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HUNLV—L 17-42645959-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB32TAL64PERF32RET47ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
CARTER JONESQB SONO SNAPS
★3—7353%+19—
13
CHUBBA PURDYQB SERET
★4★46631%-40HELD
10
AJ BIANCOQB SERET
★3—5716%-26—
19
ANTHONY WOLTERQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
17
KADEN MARTIRANOQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB51TAL42PERF51RET67ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
CALEB RAMSEURRB SERET
UNR—9157%+6—
1
HERSCHEL TURNERRB JUPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★36923%-1HELD
25
KY WOODSRB SERET
★3★3529%-10HELD
0
DOMINIC KELLEYRB SONO SNAPS
★3—467%-59—
4
CARTER JACKSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—293%——
26
ASHTON HAYESRB JURET
★3★3161%-48HELD
28
JOE BIRNBAUMRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
47
LUKE MCENDOOFB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
23
DORIAN HOZERB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE44TAL30PERF38RET51ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
85
JETT CARPENTERTE SENO SNAPS
UNR★39254%+30EMERGED
11
JACE HENRYTE SERET
UNR★38643%-35EMERGED
18
MARCUS BELLONWR SERET
UNR—7521%+1—
5
DAKOTA THOMASWR SENO SNAPS
★3—7421%-9—
9
MARSHAUN BROWNWR JURET
★3—7017%+5—
1
JORDAN BROWNWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★37017%-15HELD
12
NATE BURLESON IIWR SORET
UNR—6512%-41—
0
NATHANEAL FLOYDWR SERET
★3★3536%-46HELD
86
ZEDEKIAH ANAHU-AMBROSIOWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3444%—HELD
8
DAIJON CALIMONWR SORET
★3—363%——
82
JAYDEN O'ROURKETE SERET
UNR—262%——
16
DJ ASIASITE FRTRUE FR
★3—191%——
3
CHARLES BROWNWR SERET
★3—60%+2—
14
GERICK ROBINSONWR SERET
★3★360%—HELD
83
CARTER ECKTE SORET
UNR—00%——
19
KOLA BABALOLATE SERET
★3—00%——
7
MARQUIS ASHLEYWR SERET
★3—00%——
88
MASON JOHNSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
TRACE ESTESWR SORET
UNR—00%——
80
MACK KUMPWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
89
DREW DEESEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL55TAL45PERF55RET48n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL40TAL49PERF40RET84n=6 · 7 METRICS · 31 OBS
▸LB37TAL25PERF37RET44n=8 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB48TAL33PERF48RET17n=9 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CARTER JACKSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CARTER JONESHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DJ ASIASIHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
AIDEN WALKERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KAMERON BROWNHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ISAIAH REEDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DOMINIC KELLEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KEEGAN PEREAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MACK KUMPHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACKSON RAMSEYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HAYDEN MCDONALDCOLUMBIAS★2★3
HERSCHEL TURNERUTAH STATERB★3★3
NAHJI LOGANINDIANALB★3★3
TRENTON SCOTTTEXAS STATEOT★3★3
NAKIAN JACKSONSACRAMENTO STATELB★2★3
ZACH COCHNAUERCENTRAL ARKANSASOTUNR★3
SAM COOKSOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEEDGEUNR★3
DJ WARNELL JR.NORTH TEXASSUNR★3
JORDAN BROWNTEXAS TECHWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ISAIAH WORLDOREGONOL★3★4
MICHAEL COATS JR.WEST VIRGINIACBUNR★3
TYSON RUFFINSCALIFORNIAOL★3★3
JOSIAH TIMOTEOOREGON STATEOL★3★3
DRUE WATTSMEMPHISDB★3★3
KRIS ROSSSACRAMENTO STATEDL★4UNR
MACKAVELLI MALOTUMAUWESTERN KENTUCKYDL★3★3
AEDAN SEIULIPORTLAND STATEDB★3UNR
CORTEZ BRAHAM JR.MEMPHISWRUNR★3
BRENDON LEWISMEMPHISQB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES85%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS70%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#88NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 29 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8285COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2031 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST55% BACK55th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG55% BACK55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR48%48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR47%47th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST17%17th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE