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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|MACK BROWN|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
NORTH CAROLINA60 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
85FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#266 BC / 31
BC RATIO
37%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.2
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE63
PERFORMANCE63
TALENT73
CONTINUITY57
DEFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT78
CONTINUITY86
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29AMINNESOTA—W 19-17688080-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HCHARLOTTE—W 38-20531212+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HNORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL—W 45-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 21HJAMES MADISON—L 50-70137070-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ADUKE—L 20-21506868-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HPITTSBURGH—L 24-34696262+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HGEORGIA TECH—L 34-41675151+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AVIRGINIA—W 41-14563232+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AFLORIDA STATE—W 35-11913838+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HWAKE FOREST—W 31-24493030+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ABOSTON COLLEGE—L 21-41584848+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HNC STATE—L 30-35725959+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28HUCONN—L 14-27275050+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL24PERF55RET9ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JACOLBY CRISWELLQB SEPORTAL · ARKANSAS
★4★38682%0FELL
15
CONNER HARRELLQB SERET
★3★3469%+20HELD
7
MAX JOHNSONQB SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★3325%-1FELL
12
MICHAEL MERDINGERQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3284%—HELD
15
DJ MAZZONEQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
BEN BASTEKQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
ANDRES MIYARES JR.QB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
HUDSON WILHARMQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB76TAL87PERF76RET79ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
OMARION HAMPTONRB JURET
★4—10074%+18—
7
DAVION GAUSERB JUNO SNAPS
★3★37116%+14HELD
4
CALEB HOODRB SERET
★3★4495%+14ROSE
24
DARWIN BARLOWRB SEPORTAL · USC
★3★3312%+26HELD
23
CHARLESTON FRENCHRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—282%+38—
34
JORDAN LOUIERB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE63TAL79PERF57RET84ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
JOHN COPENHAVERTE SERET
★3—9861%+17—
5
J.J. JONESWR SERET
★4—9430%+17—
8
KOBE PAYSOURWR SERET
★3★38623%-1HELD
18
BRYSON NESBITTE SERET
★4—7222%+27—
6
NATE MCCOLLUMWR SERET
★4★36912%+18FELL
1
JORDAN SHIPPWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—649%-36—
19
JAKE JOHNSONTE SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★4★36214%-32FELL
3
CHRIS CULLIVERWR JURET
★4★3597%+20FELL
9
CHRISTIAN HAMILTONWR JURET
★4★3597%+10FELL
11
PAUL BILLUPS IIWR SORET
★3★3566%-62HELD
6
GAVIN BLACKWELLWR SERET
★4★3514%-12FELL
88
ALEX TAYLORWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3423%—FELL
88
DEEMS MAYTE SERET
UNR—211%——
4
JAVARIUS GREENWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3181%—HELD
84
RYAN WARDTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3151%—HELD
89
CAL TIERNEYTE JURET
UNR—111%——
87
CORT HALSEYTE SORET
★2—40%——
13
TYLEE CRAFTWR SERET
★3—00%——
84
CYRUS ROGERSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
THOMAS FLYNNWR JURET
UNR—00%——
30
LUKE OSTEENWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
JULIEN RANDOLPH IIITE SORET
★3—00%——
19
GRADY SHERRILLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
27
MICHAEL HALLWR SORET
UNR—00%——
38
AIDEN CLONINGERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
82
TIMMY LAWSONTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
83
JOSH ESPINDOLAWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
20
BROOKS MILLERWR JURET
★3—00%——
▸OL58TAL77PERF58RET41n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL60TAL77PERF60RET90n=7 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB57TAL81PERF57RET100n=7 · 11 METRICS · 34 OBS
▸DB50TAL78PERF50RET77n=9 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN SHIPPHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MALCOLM ZIGLARHS RECRUITS★4UNR
JAIDEN PATTERSONHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ALEX TAYLORHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
TY WHITEHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ZION FERGUSONHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
ANDREW ROSINSKIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DAVION GAUSEHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JAVARIUS GREENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ASHTON WOODSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAKE JOHNSONTEXAS A&MTE★4★4
JAKEEN HARRISNC STATES★4★3
ZACH GREENBERGMUHLENBERGIOLUNR★3
DARWIN BARLOWUSCRB★3★3
MAX JOHNSONTEXAS A&MQB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DIEGO POUNDSOLE MISSOL★3★3
TAYON HOLLOWAYLOUISVILLEDB★4★3
DJ JONESWYOMINGRB★3★3
KAMARI MORALESBOSTON COLLEGETE★3★3
KEDRICK BINGLEY-JONESMISSISSIPPI STATEDL★4★3
ANDRE GREENE JR.VIRGINIAWR★4★3
TYCHAUN CHAPMANMARSHALLWR★4★3
CHANCE CARROLLGEORGIA SOUTHERNOL★2★2
SEBASTIAN CHEEKSWISCONSINLB★4★3
ELIJAH GREENINDIANARB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES40%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS26%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#26NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
6OF 31 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8796COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1023 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST45% BACK45th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG45% BACK45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR41%41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR9%9th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST77%77th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE