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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|ERIC MORRIS|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
NORTH TEXAS100 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
43FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
35%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
61%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#700 BC / 30
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.5
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT53
CONTINUITY35
DEFENSE19
PERFORMANCE19
TALENT55
CONTINUITY61
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
45MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 52-38325555-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HSTEPHEN F. AUSTIN—W 35-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14ATEXAS TECH—L 21-66736060-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HWYOMING—W 44-17121414+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HTULSA—W 52-203355+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 41-37421616+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AMEMPHIS#24L 44-52487777-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HTULANE—L 37-45556868-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HARMY#21L 3-1417373-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AUTSA—L 27-48525353-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HEAST CAROLINA—L 28-40474545-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ATEMPLE—W 24-172555+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 3ATEXAS STATE—L 28-30286565-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB81TAL80PERF81RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CHANDLER MORRISQB SEPORTAL · TCU
★4★39991%+18FELL
17
DREW MESTEMAKERQB SONO SNAPS
UNR★5529%+40EMERGED
5
GRANT TISDALEQB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
6
CASH MCCOLLUMQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
15
CARSON WOODSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
TOM VON GROTEQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB48TAL38PERF48RET7ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
28
SHANE PORTERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★38433%+30EMERGED
0
MAKENZIE MCGILL IIRB SORET
★3★38028%+25—
21
KIEFER SIBLEYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★36917%-13HELD
4
DAMASHJA HARRISRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★3537%+34EMERGED
0
IKAIKA RAGSDALERB SERET
★3★3517%+3HELD
28
JUWAUN PRICERB SEPORTAL · SYRACUSE
★2★3414%-21ROSE
26
ZACH EVANSRB SOPORTAL · MINNESOTA
★3★3343%-20HELD
25
ASHTON GRAYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
39
SHAWN WARARB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE72TAL50PERF64RET36ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 60 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DT SHEFFIELDWR SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE
UNR★39217%+28EMERGED
8
DAMON WARD JR.WR SERET
UNR—9016%+17—
0
BLAIR CONWRIGHTWR SERET
★3★38715%+21HELD
11
DALTON CARNESWR SEPORTAL · HOUSTON
UNR★38213%-3EMERGED
7
LANDON SIDESWR SERET
★3★37510%+12HELD
1
MILES COLEMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★37410%+20HELD
10
WYATT YOUNGWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★4739%+17ROSE
23
OSCAR HAMMONDTE SEPORTAL · CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
UNR★36863%+56EMERGED
9
NICK REMPERTWR SEPORTAL · TULSA
UNR★3687%-38EMERGED
89
BRANDON YOUNG JR.TE JUNO SNAPS
★3★35329%—HELD
11
JEREMIAH AARONWR JUPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
UNR★3512%+21EMERGED
80
BARON TIPTONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—351%——
88
VICTOR ADERUNGBOYETE JUNO SNAPS
★3—328%——
14
KYLE KOCHWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—241%——
13
DALLAS DUDLEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
DARSON HERMANTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
RICHARD ROCQUEMOREWR JURET
UNR—00%——
8
LUKE CARTERTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
16
MASON FERGUSONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
ZACK DARKOCHWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
32
CASE PEACOCKWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
34
LANE STEWARTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
85
CONNER DUNPHYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL48TAL50PERF48RET41n=9 · 3 METRICS · 25 OBS
▸DL38TAL50PERF38RET38n=9 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB33TAL61PERF33RET78n=6 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB34TAL56PERF34RET64n=10 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYDON SMITHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KIEFER SIBLEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JAEDON LANGLEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JADEN PETTWAYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ZHAIYLEN SCOTTHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
GABE STROUDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TYLER MERCERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CASH MCCOLLUMHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
WYATT YOUNGHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LUKE CARTERHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHANDLER MORRISTCUQB★4★3
JAYDEN HILLOHIO DOMINICANCBUNR★3
ZACH EVANSMINNESOTARB★3★3
ISHEEM YOUNGOLE MISSS★3★3
BJ ALLEN JR.TEXASS★4★3
LANDON PETERSONTEXAS TECHIOL★3★3
OSCAR HAMMONDCENTRAL OKLAHOMATEUNR★3
X'AVION BRICETEXASCB★3★3
JUWAUN PRICESYRACUSERB★2★3
DAVID SPRUIELLSNORTHERN ARIZONASUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT42 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ETHAN MINERMISSISSIPPI STATEOL★2★3
FEBECHI NWAIWUOKLAHOMAOLUNR★3
LOGAN WILSONCINCINNATICB★3★3
CHANDLER ROGERSCALIFORNIAQB★3UNR
JA'MORI MACLINKENTUCKYWR★3★3
VIC ALOBWEDEMEMPHISDL★2★2
AYO ADEYIJAMES MADISONRBUNR★3
OSCAR ADAWAY IIISOUTH CAROLINARB★3★3
TREY CLEVELANDABILENE CHRISTIANWR★3★3
JORDAN SMARTOLE MISSWRUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES97%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS65%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#70NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 30 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8330COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2536 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST10% BACK10th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG10% BACK10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR41%41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE