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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG TEN|PAT FITZGERALD|—RECORD1-11|CONF—
NORTHWESTERN99 FPIB1G · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
67FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
11%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#482 BC / 16
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
1-11ACTUALvs1.8-10.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN-14.6
1 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE15
PERFORMANCE15
TALENT69
CONTINUITY11
DEFENSE63
PERFORMANCE63
TALENT67
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
71MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 27HNEBRASKA—W 31-28834646-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HDUKE—L 23-31555858-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HSOUTHERN ILLINOIS—L 24-31————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 24HMIAMI (OH)—L 14-17202121-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1APENN STATE#7L 7-17909595-79BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HWISCONSIN—L 7-42826868-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AMARYLAND—L 24-31737676-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29AIOWA—L 13-33748080-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HOHIO STATE#4L 7-21999898-82BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AMINNESOTA—L 3-31648888-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19APURDUE—L 9-17646565-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HILLINOIS—L 3-41608888-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB69TAL57PERF69RET66ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
RYAN HILINSKIQB SERET
★4★37456%-29FELL
6
BRENDAN SULLIVANQB SERET
★3★36328%+40HELD
12
JACK LAUSCHQB SONO SNAPS
★3—192%——
9
CARL RICHARDSONQB JURET
★3★3182%—HELD
▾RB55TAL53PERF55RET80ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
26
EVAN HULLRB JURET
★3—10066%+22—
4
CAM PORTERRB SERET
★3—7319%-45—
11
ANDREW CLAIRRB SERET
★3★3548%+14HELD
2
ANTHONY TYUS IIIRB SERET
★3★3516%-43HELD
6
JOSEPH HIMON IIRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—171%——
31
JAKE ARTHURSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
CONNOR NEWHOUSERB JURET
UNR—00%——
29
MARCUS CISCORB SERET
UNR—00%——
26
ALBERT KUNICKIS IIIRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE32TAL67PERF34RET72ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
MALIK WASHINGTONWR SERET
★3★39631%+8HELD
88
MARSHALL LANGTE SERET
★3—9145%+8—
80
DONNY NAVARRO IIIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—9127%-48—
87
THOMAS GORDONTE SERET
★3—8131%-19—
17
BRYCE KIRTZWR SERET
★3—7416%-33—
5
JACOB GILLWR SERET
★3★36611%-5HELD
2
DUKE OLGESTE SERET
★3—6216%——
23
RAYMOND NIRO IIIWR SERET
UNR—566%-40—
9
GENSON HOOPER PRICEWR SERET
UNR—514%+25—
4
COLE FREEMANWR SERET
UNR—4712%——
84
HUNTER WELCINGTE SERET
★3★4363%—ROSE
89
CHARLIE MANGIERITE SERET
★3—333%-47—
13
PRESTON BACONWR SERET
UNR—321%——
86
LAWSON ALBRIGHTTE SERET
★3—292%——
5
CALVIN JOHNSON IIWR SERET
★3★3221%—HELD
19
REGGIE FLEURIMAWR SONO SNAPS
★4★4201%—HELD
82
JASPER STRATTONWR SORET
UNR—130%——
85
JACK KENNEDYWR SERET
UNR—130%——
12
DONNIE GRAYWR SERET
★3★3100%—HELD
81
CHRIS PETRUCCITE JUNO SNAPS
★3—90%——
8
WAYNE DENNIS JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
83
BLAKE VAN BURENTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL56TAL75PERF56RET38n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL40TAL67PERF40RET57n=11 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB41TAL65PERF41RET95n=4 · 9 METRICS · 27 OBS
▸DB56TAL68PERF56RET63n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
REGGIE FLEURIMAHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ANTO SAKAHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
AUSTIN FIRESTONEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DEUCE MCGUIREHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRAYDON BRUSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
NICK HERZOGHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JOSEPH HIMON IIHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KENNY SOARES JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ROBERT FITZGERALDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CHRIS PETRUCCIHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HUNTER JOHNSONCLEMSONQB★3UNR
TERAH EDWARDSILLINOISDL★3UNR
JORDAN MOSLEYMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★4
BRANDON JOSEPHNOTRE DAMES★3UNR
CHARLIE KUHBANDERELIGIBILITY UPPK★3—
SAMDUP MILLERELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
JOE SPIVAKELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
STEPHON ROBINSON JR.ELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
TROY HUDETZELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
CHRIS BERGINELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#48NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8698COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGANY — MERGEDQUARTERBACKANY — MERGED
19TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
5
3
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.5 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED10 OF 19
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THIS PROFILE WAS TOO RARE TO STAND ALONE AND A BROADER CELL IS SHOWN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST41% BACK41th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG41% BACK41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR38%38th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR66%66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST63%63th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE