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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|TIM ALBIN|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
OHIO85 FPIMAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
12FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
94%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#970 BC / 16
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.5
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE17
PERFORMANCE17
TALENT49
CONTINUITY94
DEFENSE66
PERFORMANCE66
TALENT38
CONTINUITY78
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
25MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26ASAN DIEGO STATE—L 13-20262222+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2HLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY—W 27-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 17-10492525+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HIOWA STATE—W 10-7577272-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ABOWLING GREEN—W 38-7182929+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HKENT STATE—W 42-171500+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 13-23133030+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 20-171999+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HMIAMI (OH)—L 16-30215656-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7ABUFFALO—W 20-1081111+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 34-20955+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24AAKRON—W 25-142622+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 41-21233939+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB52TAL81PERF52RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
KURTIS ROURKEQB SERET
★3★48281%+29ROSE
16
CJ HARRISQB SORET
★3★34813%-46HELD
13
PARKER NAVARROQB SERET
★3★3366%-7HELD
9
CALLUM WITHERQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
4
JACOB WINTERSQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB16TAL13PERF16RET59ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
SIEH BANGURARB SERET
★3★39756%-8HELD
O'SHAAN ALLISONRB SERET
★2★28836%-24HELD
28
RICKEY HUNT JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★3★3445%+24HELD
21
NOLAN MCCORMICKRB JURET
UNR—353%-11—
28
QUINTELL QUINNRB SERET
★3★3141%—HELD
26
BRYCE KITRELLRB JURET
★2—00%——
41
DEVON HUNTERRB JURET
★4—00%——
48
AGINON WILSON JR.RB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE34TAL71PERF32RET93ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
SAM WIGLUSZWR SERET
UNR—9532%+19—
19
MILES CROSSWR SERET
★3★39027%+8HELD
4
TYLER WALTONWR SERET
UNR★38926%-24EMERGED
89
WILL KACMAREKTE SERET
UNR★38449%+14EMERGED
86
TYLER FOSTERTE SERET
★3★37436%+3HELD
7
CHASE HENDRICKSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★4598%-27ROSE
22
BRYCE BUTLERTE SERET
★3★35211%—HELD
16
JACOBY JONESWR SERET
UNR★3515%+35EMERGED
86
MASON WILLIAMSTE SENO SNAPS
★3★3354%—HELD
11
RODNEY HARRIS IIWR SERET
★3★3221%—HELD
84
ARAMONI RHONEWR JURET
★3★3211%—HELD
3
KEEGAN WILBURNWR SERET
★3★3130%—HELD
88
CALEB GOSSETTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
ALEC BURTONTE SERET
★3★200%-37FELL
18
MAJOR BROWNWR JURET
UNR—00%——
23
DESMOND DUFFYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
82
KYLE FULLAMTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
80
RYAN MCDOLEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
CHRISTIAN HILTONWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
JALIEN HAMMERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
20
JACK BORERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
KJ HOWARDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
MATTHEW STUEWEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
2
KHAMANI DEBROWWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
DECLAN MALENCHEKTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL37PERF46RET99n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL68TAL42PERF68RET85n=11 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸LB63TAL44PERF63RET95n=2 · 10 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DB44TAL29PERF44RET67n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHASE HENDRICKSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RICKEY HUNT JR.HS RECRUITRB★3UNR
KOBI GORMANHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ANDREW MARSHALLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MASON WILLIAMSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAY CRABLEHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KENDALL BANNISTERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACOB WINTERSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DESMOND DUFFYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DANNY NOVICKASHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHES JACKSONCOLORADO STATEOT★3★3
DANE JACKSONNORTH TEXASIOL★3★3
MILES FLEMINGMINNESOTACB★3★3
WALTER REYNOLDSHOLY CROSSSUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT30 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KYLE KELLYEASTERN KENTUCKYLB★3UNR
KYLEN MCCRACKENMARSHALLDL★2★2
DENZEL DAXONILLINOISDLUNR★3
TRISTIAN VANDENBERGMEMPHISPK★2UNR
HAGEN MESERVYELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
TARIQ DRAKEELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
JACK MCCRORYELIGIBILITY UPDE★2—
ALVIN FLOYDELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
ZACH SANDERSELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
KAI CAESARELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES17%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS16%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#97NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8208COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
46 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST94% BACK94th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG94% BACK94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE