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HOME›TEAMS›OREGON STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
PAC-12|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
OREGON STATE18 FPIPAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
61FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#492 BC / 19
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+12.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE92
PERFORMANCE92
TALENT63
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE82
PERFORMANCE82
TALENT62
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 42-17384242+44BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HUC DAVIS—W 55-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 26-9262222+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23AWASHINGTON STATE—L 35-38466363+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HUTAH—W 21-7777777+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ACALIFORNIA—W 52-40685050+36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HUCLA—W 36-24828080+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AARIZONA#11L 24-27708787-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ACOLORADO—W 26-19753939+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HSTANFORD—W 62-17741919+67BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HWASHINGTON#2L 20-22829191-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24AOREGON#6L 7-31939898-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 29ANOTRE DAME#14L 8-40939595-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL92PERF65RET8ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
DJ UIAGALELEIQB SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★5★48182%-29FELL
0
AIDAN CHILESQB SENO SNAPS
★4★44310%+36HELD
15
BEN GULBRANSONQB SERET
★3★3398%+6HELD
4
TRAVIS THROCKMORTONQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
15
DOM MONTIELQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB62TAL65PERF62RET98ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DAMIEN MARTINEZRB JURET
★3★49759%+28ROSE
1
DESHAUN FENWICKRB SERET
★3★38332%+10HELD
9
ISAIAH NEWELLRB SORET
★3★3528%-27HELD
34
JAKE REICHLERB SERET
★3—201%——
24
GAVIN HAINESRB JURET
UNR—60%——
21
DYONTAE NAVARRETERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE60TAL70PERF63RET80ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
JACK VELLINGTE SERET
★3★49650%+48ROSE
11
SILAS BOLDENWR SERET
★3★48930%+25ROSE
2
ANTHONY GOULDWR JURET
★3—8628%+31—
84
JERMAINE TERRY IITE SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★38230%-61FELL
13
JESIAH IRISHWR SERET
★3—7419%+35—
87
RILEY SHARPTE SERET
★3—5911%——
2
JIMMY VALSIN IIIWR SERET
★3★3557%+15HELD
15
JEREMIAH NOGAWR SERET
UNR★3526%+23EMERGED
4
TRENT WALKERWR SERET
UNR★3495%—EMERGED
8
RWEHA MUNYAGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—474%——
87
JAKE OVERMANTE SERET
★3★3434%-44HELD
8
BRYCE CAUFIELDTE SERET
UNR—383%——
82
GABE MILBOURNTE SERET
UNR—292%——
9
JAMAI EASTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3171%—HELD
22
JOEL VALADEZWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
1
DAVID WELLS JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
★3★360%—HELD
80
TREVOR POPEWR SOPORTAL · OREGON STATE
★3★360%—HELD
13
CARTER NEUMANTE SERET
★2★250%—HELD
19
MONTREL HATTEN JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
12
ZACK CARDWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%——
86
MALIK KELLEYTE SORET
UNR—00%——
3
TAZ REDDICKSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
85
COOPER JENSENTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
23
WALKER RINEYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
18
KARSON BOSCHMAWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
JAILEN HOLMESWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
20
JAI LAMBERTWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
26
TIMOTHY DENNIS JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL50TAL54PERF50RET87n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL66TAL69PERF66RET97n=6 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB67TAL65PERF67RET68n=9 · 11 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸DB62TAL55PERF62RET71n=10 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AIDAN CHILESHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
KELZE HOWARDHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
MONTREL HATTEN JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACOB ANDERSONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TAZ REDDICKSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANDRE JORDAN JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ZAKAIH SAEZHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
COOPER JENSENHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HARLEM HOWARDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ISAIAH CHISOMHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DJ UIAGALELEICLEMSONQB★5★4
OLUWASEYI OMOTOSHOWYOMINGEDGEUNR★3
GRANT STARCKNEVADAOT★3★3
JERMAINE TERRY IICALIFORNIATE★4★3
MASON TUFAGAUTAHLB★4★3
CALVIN HARTILLINOISLBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OMAR SPEIGHTSLSULB★3★4
JAM GRIFFINOLE MISSRB★4★3
RON HARDGE IIICOLORADO STATEDB★3★3
CAMPBELL MCHARGFRESNO STATEOL★2UNR
J.T. BYRNECALIFORNIATE★3★3
BRANDON KIPPERELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
JAYDON GRANTELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
REJZOHN WRIGHTELIGIBILITY UPDB★2—
SIMON SANDBERGELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
KYREI FISHER-MORRISELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES30%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS56%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#49NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8523COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
68 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
4
12
4
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +5 W
IMPROVED12 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST62% BACK62th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG62% BACK62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR8%8th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE