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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|KEN NIUMATALOLO|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
SAN JOSÉ STATE119 FPIMWC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
21FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1170 BC / 12
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-11.1
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT52
CONTINUITY69
DEFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT37
CONTINUITY86
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 14-16122626-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6ATEXAS#12L 7-38988888-75BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HIDAHO—W 31-28————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 27ASTANFORD—L 29-30671818-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3HNEW MEXICO—W 35-2854747-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AWYOMING—L 28-35151919-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17AUTAH STATE—L 25-30184242-29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HHAWAI'I—W 45-38135050-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HAIR FORCE—L 16-2604141-28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ANEVADA—L 10-55141515-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22ASAN DIEGO STATE—L 3-25386969-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HFRESNO STATE—L 14-41355151-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB62TAL64PERF62RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
WALKER EGETQB SERET
★3★39189%+16HELD
7
XAVIER WARDQB SERET
★3★3488%-58HELD
8
ROBERT MCDANIELQB FRPORTAL · UCLA
UNR★3313%—EMERGED
16
CJ LEEQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB55TAL74PERF55RET53ROTATIONn=4 · 4 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
STEVE CHAVEZ-SOTORB SONO SNAPS
★3★37039%0HELD
2
LAMAR RADCLIFFERB SORET
★3—6227%-6—
3
FLOYD CHALK IVRB SERET
★3★35516%+7HELD
6
JABARI BATESRB SERET
★3—4610%-12—
20
VILIAMI TEURB JURET
★3—397%-41—
24
SIR AUTRYRB FRTRUE FR
★3—111%——
▾WR/TE38TAL54PERF45RET30ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
DANNY SCUDEROWR SEPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
★3★310030%+30HELD
0
LELAND SMITHWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
UNR★310030%+11EMERGED
0
KYRI SHOELSWR SERET
★3★39927%+9HELD
85
JACKSON CANAANTE SERET
★2—9292%-29—
2
MATT COLEMANWR SERET
UNR★3688%-9EMERGED
13
COOPER HOCHWR JURET
★3—594%-50—
11
MALACHI RILEYWR JUPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★3361%-37HELD
87
GRANT NORBERGTE SERET
UNR★3355%—EMERGED
88
RYAN BOULTWOODTE JUPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE
★3★3243%—HELD
9
JASE NIXWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
7
TAMA AMISONEWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
MASON STARLINGWR SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★3★300%-1HELD
83
KAMAEHU KOPA-KAAWALAUOLETE JURET
★3—00%——
82
BRAIDEN BACHICH-DIXONTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
23
ROY GARDNERWR FRRET
★3—00%——
0
JAHARI JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
17
RYKER RUELASWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
18
TRACE HERNANDEZWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
80
JEREMIAH FUNGWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL43TAL24PERF43RET87n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL26TAL48PERF26RET44n=10 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB23TAL16PERF23RET100n=4 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB30TAL37PERF30RET71n=6 · 6 METRICS · 34 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN TONGAHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JASE NIXHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TAMA AMISONEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
BRAIDEN BACHICH-DIXONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JIREH MOEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JT TAYLORHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SIRR BIBLEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
STEVE CHAVEZ-SOTOHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DANIEL TULIAUHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
SIR AUTRYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LELAND SMITHPURDUEWRUNR★3
ROBERT MCDANIELUCLAQBUNR★3
MALIKI CRAWFORDUSCCB★4★3
MASON STARLINGCALIFORNIAWR★3★3
MALACHI RILEYARIZONAWR★3★3
CALEB PRESLEYWASHINGTONCB★4★3
DANNY SCUDEROSACRAMENTO STATEWR★3★3
RYAN BOULTWOODBOSTON COLLEGETE★3★3
VILI TAUFATOFUAUTAHDLUNR★3
BLAKE TABARACCINEW MEXICOLB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK WILLIAMSNEW MEXICO STATEOL★3★3
DJ HARVEYUSCCB★4★3
MICHAEL DANSBYARIZONADB★2★3
TREYSHUN HURRYLOUISVILLEWRUNR★3
JACOB STEWARTLOUISVILLETEUNR★3
DYLAN HAMPSTENSACRAMENTO STATEDLUNR★3
ALEXANDER COBBSDELAWARE STATELB★3★3
ROBERT RAHIMIELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
SOANE TOIAELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
MARIST TALAVOUELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES9%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS74%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#117NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 12 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8332COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1316 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST86% BACK86th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG86% BACK86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR87%87th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE