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HOME›TEAMS›SOUTH ALABAMA›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|MAJOR APPLEWHITE|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
SOUTH ALABAMA66 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
32FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#840 BC / 18
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.4
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT48
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT40
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
38MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNORTH TEXAS—L 38-52433434+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AOHIO—L 20-27115353+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 12HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 87-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 19AAPP STATE—W 48-14392626+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ALSU—L 10-42948989-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AARKANSAS STATE—L 16-18382323+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 15HTROY—W 25-9182929+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HUL MONROE—W 46-17699+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 30-34244444+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ALOUISIANA—W 24-22316161-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ASOUTHERN MISS—W 35-143511+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HTEXAS STATE—L 38-45286565-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 14AWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 30-23312222+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB72TAL59PERF72RET80ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
GIO LOPEZQB JURET
★3★38380%+33HELD
4
BISHOP DAVENPORTQB SERET
★3★36220%+1HELD
14
BRETT NEZATQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
JARED HOLLINSQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB62TAL61PERF62RET63ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
KENTREL BULLOCKRB SERET
★3★39049%+10HELD
24
FLUFF BOTHWELLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★48235%+36ROSE
0
PJ MARTINRB SERET
★3—487%+34—
3
BAM MCREYNOLDSRB SERET
★3★3487%+38HELD
23
IVERSON CELESTINERB SEPORTAL · TULANE
★3★3232%-40HELD
21
JARVIS DURRRB FRRET
★3—121%——
33
DORIAN SMITHRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
26
JONATHON CARTERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE43TAL26PERF50RET78ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
DJ THOMAS-JONESTE SERET
UNR—9657%+51—
2
JAMAAL PRITCHETTWR SERET
UNR—9128%+34—
1
DEVIN VOISINWR SERET
★2—8322%+14—
81
JEREMIAH WEBBWR SERET
★2—8221%+28—
15
SHAMAR SANDGRENWR SERET
UNR—7919%-41—
82
TRENT THOMASTE JURET
★3★37224%—HELD
9
ROD GIBBSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—5913%——
1
ANTHONY EAGERWR SERET
★3—586%+9—
13
JAVON IVORYWR SERET
★3★3514%-3HELD
89
ANDREW BENCHTE SEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
★2★3425%+16ROSE
86
TODD JUSTICETE SERET
UNR—171%——
6
MICAH WOODSWR SEPORTAL · BUFFALO
UNR★370%—EMERGED
18
KEYSHAWN WOODYARDWR SERET
★3—00%——
27
TYLEN CAMPBELLWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
JEREMY SCOTTWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
83
JERRIAN GRAHAMWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
WILL LOERZELTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
30
STACEY BOYKINS JR.WR FRRET
UNR—00%——
80
HOLLIS MCDANIELTE SORET
UNR—00%——
17
JACE LARSENWR SORET
UNR—00%——
15
CHRIS HOLIFIELD JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
10
NOAH TOSTERWR SEPORTAL · CHOWAN
UNR★300%—EMERGED
20
WEBBER MCCLINTONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
BEN BREWERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
DEVIN GUINTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL52PERF54RET72n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL34TAL30PERF34RET58n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB41TAL24PERF41RET51n=7 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB51TAL54PERF51RET52n=10 · 6 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER CARTERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JERRIAN GRAHAMHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JARED HOLLINSHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JEREMY SCOTTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ACHILLES WOODSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
AMARION FORTENBERRYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CUBE GURLEYHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JULIEN DEMBYHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ASHER HALEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
LOGAN JOELLENBECKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAYDEN HOBSONMISSISSIPPI STATEOT★3★3
ANDREW BENCHBOWLING GREENTE★2★3
LARDARIUS WEBB JR.OKLAHOMA STATES★3★3
ETHAN HUBBARDDUKEOT★3★3
MALACHI PRECIADOPURDUEIOL★3★3
BRYSTON DIXONGEORGIA TECHDL★3★3
AAKIL WASHINGTONLIBERTYLB★3★3
NOAH TOSTERCHOWANWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARQUISE ROBINSONARKANSASDBUNR★3
DONTAE LUCASSOUTHERN MISSOL★4★3
YAM BANKSOLE MISSS★3★4
KHALIL JACOBSMISSOURILB★3★3
CAULLIN LACYLOUISVILLEWR★3★4
TRAVIS DROSOSUCLALSUNRUNR
REGGIE SMITHELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
QUENTIN WILFAWNELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
TREY KISERELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JAMIE SHERIFFELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES64%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS47%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#84NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8339COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1516 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST34% BACK34th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG34% BACK34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR72%72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR80%80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST52%52th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE