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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SUN BELT|WILL HALL|—RECORD1-11|CONF—
SOUTHERN MISS132 FPISBC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
35FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
48%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
52%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#770 BC / 15
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
1-11ACTUALvs1.3-10.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-22.5
1 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE2
PERFORMANCE2
TALENT38
CONTINUITY48
DEFENSE7
PERFORMANCE7
TALENT43
CONTINUITY52
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
47MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AKENTUCKY—L 0-31836666-65BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HSE LOUISIANA—W 35-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 24-49504141-40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 7-4484545-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HLOUISIANA—L 13-23316161-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AUL MONROE—L 21-38699-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HARKANSAS STATE—L 28-44382323-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AJAMES MADISON—L 15-32137070-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HMARSHALL—L 3-37425757-56BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ATEXAS STATE—L 3-58286565-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 14-35325555-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ATROY—L 20-52182929-28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL15PERF44RET42ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
TATE RODEMAKERQB JUPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★3★37048%-15HELD
6
ETHAN CRAWFORDQB SERET
★3★36842%-15HELD
12
JOHN WHITEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—4310%+17—
17
KYLE MCCORMICKQB JURET
★2—00%——
19
SHADE FOSTERQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB32TAL40PERF33RET92ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
RODRIGUES CLARKRB SERET
★3★38642%-14HELD
5
KENYON CLAYRB SERET
★3★37931%+33HELD
2
CHANDLER PITTMANRB SERET
★3—5710%-6—
20
JQ GRAYRB FRRET
★3—549%-59—
20
JALEN WASHINGTONRB FRTRUE FR
★3★3528%-16HELD
29
CHANCE JENKINSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL58PERF45RET38ROTATIONn=5 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
LARRY SIMMONSWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★38743%-9HELD
11
DAVIS DALTONWR SERET
★3—8035%+5—
85
JUSTYN REIDTE SERET
★3★37941%-8HELD
88
KYIRIN HEATHTE SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★3★37838%+23HELD
19
REED JESIOLOWSKITE JUNO SNAPS
★3★36219%—HELD
13
DANNIS JACKSONWR SEPORTAL · MISSOURI
★4★36215%+26FELL
6
JAVIEON BUTLERWR SORET
★3★3486%—HELD
82
RAY DALY JR.WR FRTRUE FR
UNR—151%——
89
PAX HUGHESTE FRRET
UNR—111%——
80
ZAVIAN HALESWR SERET
UNR—70%——
84
JACK JACKSONWR SORET
UNR—70%——
12
CHANDLER MERRILLWR JURET
UNR—00%——
0
TY MIMSWR SERET
★3★300%-27HELD
47
MICHAEL JEFCOATTE JURET
UNR—00%——
16
TK KEYESWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
37
JACK SCHWINGWR SORET
UNR—00%——
14
KEYSHAWN BUCKLEYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
88
TERRON BEDFORDTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
PAUL JAMESWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
ETHAN DAILEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
CASTON BROWNTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL28TAL30PERF28RET46n=8 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL47TAL48PERF47RET69n=10 · 7 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB44TAL37PERF44RET30n=7 · 11 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸DB44TAL43PERF44RET53n=9 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALEB MOOREHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MILES ADAMSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AARON TRAVISHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CHRIS JONESHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOHN WHITEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DAMION MILLERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JALEN WASHINGTONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
REED JESIOLOWSKIHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
LARRY EDWARDSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ZAY LOWERYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TATE RODEMAKERFLORIDA STATEQB★3★3
BRAXTON MYERSPURDUES★4★3
KYIRIN HEATHOLE MISSTE★3★3
JONATHAN DAVISMISSISSIPPI STATEDL★3★3
JO CRYERLSUIOLUNR★3
CALEB BRYANTMISSISSIPPI STATEDL★3★3
DONTAE LUCASSOUTH ALABAMAIOL★4★3
RYAN JOHNSONAKRONEDGEUNR★3
DANTE KELLYVANDERBILTLB★3★3
DANNIS JACKSONMISSOURIWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GERQUAN SCOTTOLE MISSOL★3★3
BRYCE RAMSEYMARSHALLOL★3★3
MARKEL MCLAURINALCORN STATECB★3UNR
BILLY WILESAPP STATEQB★3★3
TYQUAN HENDERSONJACKSON STATEWRUNR★3
BRANDON HAYESSE LOUISIANAWR★3UNR
HOLMAN EDWARDSHOUSTONQBUNRUNR
EXAVIOUS REEDTENNESSEE STATETE★3★3
BRIASON MAYSELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
JOHN BOLDINGELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES64%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS64%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#77NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8459COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
177 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST28% BACK28th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG28% BACK28th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR46%46th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR42%42th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST53%53th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE