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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|ALEX GOLESH|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
SOUTH FLORIDA83 FPIAAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
50FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#501 BC / 27
BC RATIO
5%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.4
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT57
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT50
CONTINUITY50
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
42MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HBETHUNE-COOKMAN—W 48-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7AALABAMA#17L 16-421009898-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14ASOUTHERN MISS—W 49-243511+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HMIAMI#18L 15-50919393-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ATULANE—L 10-45556868-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HMEMPHIS#24L 3-21487777-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HUAB—W 35-25402020+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 44-21421616+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HNAVY—L 7-2815858-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16ACHARLOTTE—W 59-24531212+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HTULSA—W 63-303355+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ARICE—L 28-35281919+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 24ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 41-39163232+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB35TAL77PERF35RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
BRYCE ARCHIEQB JURET
★3★37965%-20HELD
17
BYRUM BROWNQB SERET
★3★46832%+22ROSE
7
ISRAEL CARTERQB SORET
★3★3294%—HELD
18
LUKE RUCKERQB SOPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★300%—HELD
16
RYAN BOLDUCQB SERET
UNR—00%——
14
MARCELIS TATEQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB49TAL79PERF49RET88ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
34
RICO WATSON IIIFB SERET
UNR—8721%——
11
D.J. HARRISFB SERET
★4—7076%——
5
NAY'QUAN WRIGHTRB SERET
★4★48536%-36HELD
8
KELLEY JOINERRB SERET
UNR—8435%+11—
9
TA'RON KEITHRB SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★3★37524%+31HELD
23
YASIAS YOUNGRB SERET
UNR—323%-40—
15
ALVON ISAACRB SONO SNAPS
★3★3181%—HELD
20
JAYLEN JOHNSONRB JURET
★3★3161%—HELD
4
K'WAN POWELLRB SERET
UNR★300%-11EMERGED
21
KENNY WALKERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
25
NYKAHI DAVENPORTRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE53TAL52PERF51RET50ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
38
SEAN ATKINSWR SERET
UNR—9827%+27—
7
MICHAEL BROWN-STEPHENSWR SERET
★3—8920%+19—
88
PAYTEN SINGLETARYTE SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★3★38255%-6HELD
11
KESHAUN SINGLETONWR JURET
UNR★37714%+32EMERGED
80
JOSHUA PORTERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—7513%-28—
2
ABDUR-RAHMAAN YASEENWR SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★4★37010%0FELL
1
JOSHUA HARDEMANWR SENO SNAPS
★3—699%-18—
19
JEYQUAN SMITHWR JURET
★3—606%-29—
87
GUNNAR GREENWALDTE SERET
★3—5820%-46—
47
EVAN DANGLERTE SERET
UNR—5618%——
0
BRANDON WINTONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3321%—HELD
18
WESTON WOLFFTE SERET
★3★3293%-22HELD
1
JONATHAN ECHOLSTE SONO SNAPS
★4★3222%—FELL
45
WYATT STIEHLTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—172%——
5
TYREE KELLYWR JURET
UNR—130%——
85
CHRISTIAN HELMSWR SERET
UNR—130%——
12
JADEN ALEXISWR SERET
★4★300%-18FELL
9
NAIEM SIMMONSWR SERET
UNR★300%+19EMERGED
84
CADE ROBERTSWR SERET
★3—00%——
86
FIN JONESTE SOPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★300%—HELD
89
COLIN AFFLECKTE JURET
UNR—00%——
26
CAMERON COBBWR SERET
UNR—00%——
21
ARKESE PARKSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
RANOD SMITHWR SORET
UNR—00%——
28
GRIFFIN GISOTTIWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
31
AJ HOWARDWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
27
JAYDEN DAVISWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL45TAL54PERF45RET82n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL67TAL59PERF67RET36n=10 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
▸LB63TAL44PERF63RET93n=6 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB51TAL47PERF52RET35n=11 · 8 METRICS · 68 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JONATHAN ECHOLSHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
FRED GASKIN IIIHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DINELLSON EXUMEHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ZAVIER HAMILTONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
RODNEY HILLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CAMREN CAMPBELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
BRANDON WINTONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RYAN JENKINSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ARKESE PARKSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
IRA SINGLETONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ABDUR-RAHMAAN YASEENPURDUEWR★4★3
TA'RON KEITHWESTERN KENTUCKYRB★3★3
DE'SHAWN RUCKERTENNESSEECB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRAMEL LOGANLOUISVILLEDL★3★3
LLOYD SUMMERALL IIIJAMES MADISONDLUNRUNR
CHRIS TOWNSELKENNESAW STATEDB★3UNR
KHAFRE BROWNARKANSASWR★4★3
JAYDEN CURRYMAINEDB★3★3
WILL JONES IIOLD DOMINIONS★3★3
MICHEL DUKESGEORGIA STATERB★3★3
JAMEEL SANDERSFLORIDA A&MDBUNRUNR
STANTAVIOUS SMITHFLORIDA A&MDT★3★3
BRYCE BERNARDGEORGIA SOUTHERNLSUNRUNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES11%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS19%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#50NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8549COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1421 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST90% BACK90th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG90% BACK90th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR82%82th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST35%35th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE