SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|SONNY DYKES|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
TCU37 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
56%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#345 BC / 21
BC RATIO
32%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.0
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE89
PERFORMANCE89
TALENT78
CONTINUITY57
DEFENSE56
PERFORMANCE56
TALENT79
CONTINUITY56
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
54MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30ASTANFORD—W 34-27702424+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY—W 45-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HUCF—L 34-35775555+27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ASMU#12L 42-66829292-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AKANSAS—W 38-27656262+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HHOUSTON—L 19-30532424+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AUTAH—W 13-7777171+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HTEXAS TECH—W 35-34736060+22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ABAYLOR—L 34-37697272+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 38-13624040+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HARIZONA—W 49-28603939+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ACINCINNATI—W 20-13574747+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28HLOUISIANA—W 34-3316161+21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL98PERF70RET97ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
JOSH HOOVERQB SERET
★3★49797%+25ROSE
9
KEN SEALSQB SEPORTAL · VANDERBILT
★3★3263%+2HELD
8
HAUSS HEJNYQB SONO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
27
HAYDEN PARGAQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
JACOB PORTERQB JURET
★2—00%——
▾RB43TAL78PERF43RET67ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CAM COOKRB SERET
★4★38845%-42FELL
26
JEREMY PAYNERB JUNO SNAPS
★4—7323%-17—
6
TRENT BATTLERB SERET
★3—6818%-11—
20
DOMINIQUE JOHNSONRB JUPORTAL · ARKANSAS
★3★3497%+16HELD
2
TREY SANDERSRB SERET
★5★3344%-9FELL
15
NATE PALMERRB SONO SNAPS
★3★3303%-26HELD
40
FRANKLIN ESTRADA IIRB SERET
UNR—91%——
32
BRANT AHLFINGERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
23
DERRICK CARROLLRB SORET
UNR—00%——
24
JOE PITCHFORDRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE65TAL77PERF72RET69ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
JACK BECHWR SERET
★4★39625%+26FELL
7
JP RICHARDSONWR SERET
★3—9525%+9—
9
DRAKE DABNEYTE SEPORTAL · BAYLOR
★3★38954%+26HELD
3
SAVION WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—8518%+9—
1
ERIC MCALISTERWR SEPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★3★38216%+35HELD
0
DJ ROGERSTE SERET
★4—7432%+4—
87
BLAKE NOWELLWR SERET
★3—595%+6—
17
JORDYN BAILEYWR JURET
★3★3575%+2HELD
81
CHASE CURTISTE SERET
UNR—5110%+35—
11
JOJO EARLEWR SERET
★4★3503%-12FELL
12
LAFAYETTE KAIUWAYTE SERET
★3—303%——
16
BRAYLON JAMESWR JUPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★4271%—HELD
85
PARKER CLARKWR JURET
UNR—231%——
0
DOZIE EZUKANMAWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—200%——
41
HUNTER KREPPWR SORET
UNR—150%——
6
DYLAN WRIGHTWR SERET
★4★3110%+32FELL
22
FLETCHER FIERROWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—70%——
3
MAJOR EVERHARTWR SERET
★3—70%+23—
47
JAX PORTERTE SOPORTAL · ALABAMA
UNR—40%——
35
COLTON DOBSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
43
JOE LATERZAWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
KEAGAN CUNNINGHAMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
AUSTIN SCHEETSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
84
GEKYLE BAKERWR FRTRUE FR
★4★300%—FELL
84
COLE SNODGRASSTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
21
STEEL TOBINWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
88
CADE KEITHTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
86
SUTTON LEEWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL66TAL75PERF66RET32n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL40TAL83PERF40RET49n=8 · 7 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB48TAL77PERF48RET71n=7 · 11 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB69TAL76PERF69RET58n=9 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS10 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GEKYLE BAKERHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
HAUSS HEJNYHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JEREMY PAYNEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
TRAVIS JACKSONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
TOBIAS STEPPESHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DEVONDRE MCGEEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
NATE PALMERHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DOZIE EZUKANMAHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
WESLEY HARVEYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
DEVYN HIDROGOHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN15 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAYLON JAMESNOTRE DAMEWR★4★4
KALEB ELARMS-ORRCALIFORNIALB★3★4
DEVEAN DEALTULANEEDGE★4★3
ERIC MCALISTERBOISE STATEWR★3★3
JAISE OLIVERTULSAS★3★3
DRAKE DABNEYBAYLORTE★3★3
CADE BENNETTSAN DIEGO STATEIOL★3★3
JATRAVIS BROUGHTONUTAHCB★3★3
COOPER MCDONALDSAN DIEGO STATELB★3★3
BLESS HARRISFLORIDA STATEOTUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT36 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAMONIC WILLIAMSOKLAHOMADL★3★4
CHANDLER MORRISNORTH TEXASQB★4★3
ZACH MARCHESELLITULSALB★3★3
RANDON FONTENETTEVANDERBILTDB★4★3
JAI'ONTE' MCMILLANMINNESOTADBUNR★3
MASON WHITEOREGON STATEDB★2★3
COREY WRENUTEPLB★3★4
DJ ALLEN JR.UTSAWR★4UNR
ISHMAEL AZ-ZAHIRNEW MEXICOCB★3UNR
EZRA DOTSON-OYETADETEXAS STATEOL★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES70%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS40%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#34NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8708COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2320 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
28TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
11
6
3
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.3 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +4 W
IMPROVED7 OF 28
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST52% BACK52th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG52% BACK52th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR32%32th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST58%58th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE