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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|JOSH HEUPEL|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
TENNESSEE#9 AP 7 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
88FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
74%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1413 BC / 23
BC RATIO
46%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs10.9-1.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+23.3
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE80
PERFORMANCE80
TALENT86
CONTINUITY74
DEFENSE91
PERFORMANCE91
TALENT87
CONTINUITY74
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
64MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HCHATTANOOGA—W 69-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7ANC STATE—W 51-10725959+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HKENT STATE—W 71-0900+94BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21AOKLAHOMA—W 25-15957676+18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AARKANSAS—L 14-19828383+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HFLORIDA—W 23-17928686+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HALABAMA#17W 24-171009898-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HKENTUCKY—W 28-18836666+28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 33-14763535+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AGEORGIA#6L 17-31999696-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HUTEP—W 56-01233+91BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AVANDERBILT—W 36-23646262+32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 21AOHIO STATE#1L 17-4299100100-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL98PERF55RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
NICO IAMALEAVAQB JURET
★5★58890%-1HELD
3
GASTON MOOREQB SERET
UNR—356%-14—
4
JAKE MERKLINGERQB FRTRUE FR
★4★3243%—FELL
21
NAVY SHULERQB SERET
★3—91%——
15
RYAN DAMRONQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB75TAL74PERF75RET69ONE OWNERn=4 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DYLAN SAMPSONRB JURET
★3—9663%+23—
18
DESEAN BISHOPRB JURET
★3—6617%+29—
2
PEYTON LEWISRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★36314%+3FELL
20
KHALIFA KEITHRB SERET
★3★3384%-13HELD
24
HUNTER BARNESRB SERET
UNR—181%-12—
28
PATRICK WILKRB JURET
UNR—91%+33—
▾WR/TE64TAL83PERF62RET50ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
MILES KITSELMANTE SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
UNR★38952%+47EMERGED
5
BRU MCCOYWR SERET
★4—8623%+7—
17
CHRIS BRAZZELL IIWR JUPORTAL · TULANE
★3★48220%+21ROSE
4
SQUIRREL WHITEWR SERET
★3★47918%+31ROSE
19
HOLDEN STAESTE SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★4★37431%-12FELL
1
DONT'E THORNTON JR.WR SERET
UNR★47214%+36EMERGED
5
CHAS NIMRODWR SERET
★3★3649%-24HELD
4
MIKE MATTHEWSWR JUNO SNAPS
★5★4597%-47FELL
0
ETHAN DAVISTE JURET
★4—5513%+20—
14
BRAYLON STALEYWR SONO SNAPS
★4—483%——
2
KALEB WEBBWR SERET
★4★3473%-31FELL
88
CHARLIE BROWDERTE JURET
★3—354%——
11
NATHAN LEACOCKWR JURET
★4★3241%—FELL
0
CAMERON SELDONWR SERET
★4★3241%—FELL
6
DAYTON SNEEDWR JURET
UNR★3211%—EMERGED
83
TREY WEARYWR JURET
UNR—150%——
80
COLE HARRISONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—141%——
44
TITUS ROHRERTE JURET
UNR—111%——
44
LUKE SHOUSETE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
82
NATE SPILLMANWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
84
TOMMY WINTON IIIWR JUPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
★3★300%—HELD
26
CARSON WHITEHEADWR JURET
UNR—00%——
29
JACKSON LOCKEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
36
NATHAN ROBERTSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
29
JACK-HENRY JAKOBIKWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
MALCOLM KINZERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
42
BRAYLON HARMONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL62TAL86PERF62RET79n=7 · 2 METRICS · 13 OBS
▸DL80TAL89PERF80RET89n=14 · 8 METRICS · 70 OBS
▸LB69TAL86PERF69RET93n=6 · 10 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB57TAL85PERF57RET52n=9 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN ROSSHS RECRUITEDGE★5UNR
MIKE MATTHEWSHS RECRUITWR★5UNR
BRAYLON STALEYHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
BOO CARTERHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
PEYTON LEWISHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
BENNETT WARRENHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
KALEB BEASLEYHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JAKE MERKLINGERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
WILLIAM SATTERWHITE IIHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
MAX ANDERSONHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN6 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LANCE HEARDLSUOT★5★4
HOLDEN STAESNOTRE DAMETE★4★4
CHRIS BRAZZELL IITULANEWR★3★4
JERMOD MCCOYOREGON STATECB★3★4
JAKOBE THOMASMIDDLE TENNESSEES★3★3
JAXSON MOISTANFORDDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WESLEY WALKERMICHIGANDB★3★3
ELIJAH HERRINGMEMPHISLB★3★3
GERALD MINCEYKENTUCKYOL★3★3
TAMARION MCDONALDLOUISVILLEDB★3★4
TYLER BARONMIAMIDL★4★4
DONEIKO SLAUGHTERARKANSASDB★3★3
WARREN BURRELLGEORGIA TECHDB★3★3
BRANDON TURNAGEOLE MISSCB★4★3
ADDISON NICHOLSARKANSASOL★4★3
MO CLIPPER JR.CHARLOTTEOL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES64%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS41%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#14NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
13OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9024COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
916 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST36% BACK36th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG36% BACK36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR97%97th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST52%52th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE