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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
SEC|JIMBO FISHER|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
TEXAS A&M#16 AP 13 FPISEC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
89FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1713 BC / 22
BC RATIO
38%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+8.3
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
77MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 59-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 8HCLEMSON#1L 26-28979898-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15HUL MONROE—W 48-10121919+73BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22AALABAMA#2L 23-4599100100-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HARKANSAS—W 24-17816060+32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HKENTUCKY#12W 20-14778181+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13ASOUTH CAROLINA—W 26-23858585+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27AMISSISSIPPI STATE—L 13-28849595-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3AAUBURN—L 24-28919595-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HOLE MISS—W 38-24857575+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17HUAB—W 41-20284343+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HLSU#6W 74-72969797-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET96NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
NICK STARKELQB SERET
★3—00%——
11
KELLEN MONDQB SERET
★4—00%——
19
COLTON TAYLORQB SERET
UNR—00%——
15
ALEX FERNANDESQB SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
18
JAGGER LAROEQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
BO SCHNEIDERQB —RET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET51NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
DENERIC PRINCERB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
12
CULLEN GILLASPIAFB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
KWAME ETWIRB SERET
UNR—00%——
JACOB KIBODIRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
5
TRAYVEON WILLIAMSRB JURET
★4—00%——
3
VERNON JACKSONRB SORET
UNR—00%——
25
CHARLES STRONGRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
JASHAUN CORBINRB SONO SNAPS
★4—00%——
29
BEN MILESFB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
AJ SANDERSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
43
CAGAN BALDREEFB SERET
UNR—00%——
45
SAM STANLEYFB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
MCCRAE RUTLEDGERB SERET
UNR—00%——
35
JAVONTE KEMPFB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
JOHN CLARKRB —RET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
JACE STERNBERGERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
KENDRICK ROGERSWR JURET
★3—00%——
1
ROSHAUUD PAULWR JURET
★3—00%——
1
QUARTNEY DAVISWR JURET
★4—00%——
8
TREVOR WOODTE —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
46
RYAN RENICKTE SERET
UNR—00%——
1
CAMRON BUCKLEYWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
4
CONNOR BLUMRICKTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%——
2
JHAMON AUSBONWR SERET
★4—00%——
5
JALEN PRESTONWR SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
9
HEZEKIAH JONESWR SERET
UNR—00%——
30
ANDREW BOYKINWR JURET
UNR—00%——
42
MAX WRIGHTTE SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
16
KLYDE CHRISSWR SORET
★4—00%——
42
KE'UNDRE AZAKYTUWR JURET
UNR—00%——
42
CAMRON HORRYTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
JACOB GROFFWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
HUNTER SMITHWR JURET
★2—00%——
89
JUSTIN MELLENBRUCHTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
GLENN BEALTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
33
DYLAN TAYLORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
30
CADE WILLIAMSWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
GREER SHETLERTE —RET
UNR—00%——
31
GANNON RAWLINSTE —RET
UNR—00%——
83
MONTEL PARKERWR —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
KEYNEL MCZEALWR —RET
★3—00%——
29
KURTIS BRADICICHWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LEON O'NEAL JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
JALEN PRESTONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
COLTEN BLANTONHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
BOBBY BROWNHS RECRUITDT★4UNR
MAX WRIGHTHS RECRUITSDE★4UNR
JORDAN MOOREHS RECRUITS★4UNR
TANK JENKINSHS RECRUITOG★4UNR
JEREMIAH MARTINHS RECRUITWDE★4UNR
JASHAUN CORBINHS RECRUITAPB★4UNR
JAMES FOSTERHS RECRUITDUAL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KODA MARTINSYRACUSEOLUNRUNR
KEMAH SIVERANDOKLAHOMA STATEDBUNRUNR
KENDALL BUSSEYNICHOLLSRBUNRUNR
ARMANI WATTSNFL DRAFT R4DBUNR—
CHRISTIAN KIRKNFL DRAFT R2WRUNR—
DAMION RATLEYNFL DRAFT R6WRUNR—
KALVIN CLINENOT LISTEDTEUNR—
SHANE TRIPUCKANOT LISTEDPUNR—
TANNER SCHORPNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
KEITH FORDNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#17NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
13OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8923COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST69% BACK69th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG69% BACK69th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE