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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|MIKE ELKO|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TEXAS A&M16 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
96FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
48%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1916 BC / 17
BC RATIO
61%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+9.2
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE86
PERFORMANCE86
TALENT86
CONTINUITY62
DEFENSE83
PERFORMANCE83
TALENT89
CONTINUITY48
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
72MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HNOTRE DAME#2L 13-23939595-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HMCNEESE—W 52-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14AFLORIDA—W 33-20928686+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HBOWLING GREEN—W 26-20174343+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HARKANSAS—W 21-17828383+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HMISSOURI#22W 41-10878686+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AMISSISSIPPI STATE—W 34-24763535+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HLSU—W 38-23948989+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ASOUTH CAROLINA#19L 20-44859090+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 38-3777+84BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AAUBURN—L 41-43887676+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HTEXAS#4L 7-17989595-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27AUSC—L 31-35908383+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL91PERF58RET99ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
MARCEL REEDQB SERET
★4—7867%+24—
1
CONNER WEIGMANQB SERET
★5★46731%-16FELL
8
MILES O'NEILLQB SONO SNAPS
★4★3141%—FELL
13
JAYLEN HENDERSONQB SERET
★3★300%+34HELD
14
BLAKE BOSTQB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
DALLAS NOVICKEQB SORET
UNR—00%——
19
PAXTON LANDQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
29
DYLAN MAYERSQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
37
PEYTON GAYQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB57TAL88PERF57RET81ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
AMARI DANIELSRB SERET
★4—8738%+4—
8
LE'VEON MOSSRB SERET
★4—8433%+18—
22
EJ SMITHRB SEPORTAL · STANFORD
★4★37018%+1FELL
41
AJ DINOTARB SERET
UNR—445%-30—
4
RUEBEN OWENS IIRB SERET
★5—414%-49—
25
ISRAEL BENJAMINRB SERET
★3★350%—HELD
34
PRESTON LANDISRB SERET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
27
RONNIE CROSBY IIIRB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
RAMARIAN TILLMANRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE53TAL87PERF54RET45ONE OWNERn=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
TRE WATSONTE SEPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★3★39546%+53HELD
5
NOAH THOMASWR SERET
★4★49126%+17HELD
18
THEO MELIN OHRSTROMTE SERET
★4★48936%+36HELD
1
JABRE BARBERWR SEPORTAL · TROY
★2★38220%+28ROSE
9
JAHDAE WALKERWR SERET
UNR★38119%+16EMERGED
4
CYRUS ALLENWR SEPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH
★3★37314%+25HELD
82
SHANE CALHOUNTE SEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
★3★36716%-26HELD
6
TERRY BUSSEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★5—6710%-10—
7
MOOSE MUHAMMAD IIIWR SERET
★4—606%+20—
17
JACOB BOSTICKWR SEPORTAL · IOWA
★3★3342%—HELD
8
ASHTON BETHEL-ROMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★4—342%——
81
DONOVAN GREENTE SENO SNAPS
★4★3322%-25FELL
1
IZAIAH WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3301%—FELL
83
JADEN PLATTTE JURET
★4★4151%—HELD
3
MICAH TEASEWR JURET
★4★370%-63FELL
83
ANDREW MALESKIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
88
GARRETT MILLERTE SEPORTAL · PURDUE
★3★300%-11HELD
13
ERNEST CAMPBELLWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
87
JACOB BRASHERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
89
NATHAN FIGUEROATE SORET
UNR—00%——
20
JOHNNY RYDERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
SAM SALZWR SERET
UNR—00%——
43
ZACHARY CLAYTE SERET
UNR—00%——
15
WESLEY WATSONWR JUPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★3★300%—HELD
84
BLAKE BUNTYNWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
86
RYAN BURTINWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
LUKE BRADENTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
CARTER BRAUGHTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL63TAL85PERF63RET65n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL61TAL93PERF61RET63n=8 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸LB73TAL80PERF73RET60n=5 · 11 METRICS · 41 OBS
▸DB58TAL90PERF58RET33n=9 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TERRY BUSSEYHS RECRUITATH★5UNR
BLAKE IVYHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DEALYN EVANSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ISENDRE AHFUAHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
SOLOMON WILLIAMSHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JORDAN PRIDEHS RECRUITS★4UNR
ASHTON BETHEL-ROMANHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ASHTON FUNKHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
MYLES DAVISHS RECRUITS★4UNR
MILES O'NEILLHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEZZ RICKSALABAMACB★5★4
NIC SCOURTONPURDUEEDGE★4★4
CASHIUS HOWELLBOWLING GREENEDGE★3★4
CYRUS ALLENLOUISIANA TECHWR★3★4
DONOVAN SAUNDERSCAL POLYCBUNR★4
WILL LEE IIIKANSAS STATECB★3★4
MARCUS RATCLIFFESAN DIEGO STATES★3★4
SCOOBY WILLIAMSFLORIDALB★4★4
JAYDON HILLFLORIDACB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRYCE FOSTERKANSASOL★4★3
FADIL DIGGSSYRACUSEDL★4★4
JAKE JOHNSONNORTH CAROLINATE★4★3
DEUCE HARMONSMUCB★4★3
WALTER NOLENOLE MISSDT★5★5
ISAIAH RAIKESAUBURNDL★4★3
EVAN STEWARTOREGONWR★5★5
MAX JOHNSONNORTH CAROLINAQB★4★3
LT OVERTONALABAMADL★5★4
SAM MCCALLGEORGIA STATECB★4★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES18%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS62%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#19NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
16OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9143COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2632 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST63% BACK63th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG63% BACK63th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST33%33th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE