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HOME›TEAMS›TEXAS STATE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
PAC-12|JAKE SPAVITAL|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
TEXAS STATE119 FPIPAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
30FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1830 BC / 3
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs3.6-8.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-9.9
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HBAYLOR#5L 20-29718989-80BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 23-174644+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HINCARNATE WORD—L 34-42————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 25AEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 21-59172323-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 33-31272525-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16HTROY—L 28-31342828-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23AGEORGIA STATE—L 16-28264545-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30ALOUISIANA#16L 0-45316464-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HUL MONROE—W 27-191255+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 30-38211010-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 21-35288181-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27AARKANSAS STATE—W 24-2240990BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
TYLER VITTQB JURET
★3—00%——
11
BRADY MCBRIDEQB JURET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
4
TY EVANSQB SOPORTAL · NC STATE
★3★300%—HELD
13
D.J. BOLGERQB SORET
UNR—00%——
10
TANNER PREWITQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
BROCK STURGESRB SORET
★3—00%——
28
JAHMYL JETERRB SERET
★3—00%——
11
CALVIN HILLRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
40
J.T. GREERFB FRRET
UNR—00%——
33
MARQUIS BROWNRB SORET
★3—00%——
34
DIEGO MENDOZARB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DONNOVAN MOORERWR SONO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
RONTAVIUS GROVESWR SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★3★300%—HELD
24
CALEB TWYFORDWR SERET
★2—00%——
84
KORDELL RODGERSTE SORET
★3—00%——
80
CHANDLER SPEIGHTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
JAVEN BANKSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
TREVIS GRAHAMWR SERET
★3—00%——
84
SETH CAILLOUETTE SORET
★2—00%——
87
JACKSON LANAMTE JURET
★2—00%——
17
JULIAN ORTEGA-JONESWR SEPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN
★2★200%—HELD
9
DRUE JACKSONWR JURET
★3—00%——
83
MICAH HILTSTE SERET
★2★300%—ROSE
18
MARCELL BARBEEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
WAYDALE JONESWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
6
ASHTYN HAWKINSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
88
KENNY FRAZIERWR FRRET
★2—00%——
15
BLAKE ARAGONWR SORET
★3—00%——
8
JACOBY HOPKINSWR SORET
★3—00%——
81
DYLAN JANTZWR FRRET
★3—00%——
82
KEVIN HOWARDWR JURET
UNR—00%——
41
TYLER HUFFTE SERET
UNR—00%——
85
BROOKS MCCOYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
89
AUSTIN GROESCHELTE SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS3 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RONNIE HAMRICK IIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
NACE WASHINGTONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAVEN WAREHS RECRUITSUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN19 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TY EVANSNC STATEQB★3★3
NICK MCCANNTEXAS TECHDT★3★3
JORDAN MITCHELLGEORGIA SOUTHERNEDGE★3★3
CHRIS MILLSMISSOURICB★3★3
LIAM DICKPITTSBURGHOT★3★3
JEREMIAH HAWKINSCALIFORNIAWR★3★3
NICK FULWIDERARKANSASDLUNR★3
GRAHAM FALOONAUTAHLB★3★3
DENNIS ROBINSONNORTHERN ILLINOISWR★3★3
RONTAVIUS GROVESNORTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
HAL VINSONFLORIDA INTERNATIONALDL★3★3
JAH'MARAE SHEREADFLORIDA A&MWRUNRUNR
ALTON STEPHENSELIGIBILITY UPLSUNR—
ROBERT BROWN JR.ELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
GAVIN GRAHAMELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
KINGSLEY ONYIRIOHAELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
CHRISTIAN TAYLORELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JAYLEN GIPSONELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
JEREMIAH HAYDELELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
PRESTON DIMERYNOT LISTEDSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#183NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 3 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8380COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1915 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST90% BACK90th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG90% BACK90th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE