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HOME›TEAMS›TEXAS STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
PAC-12|G.J. KINNE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
TEXAS STATE99 FPIPAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
32FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
11%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
35%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#980 BC / 8
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.2
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT53
CONTINUITY11
DEFENSE35
PERFORMANCE35
TALENT44
CONTINUITY35
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
38MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2ABAYLOR—W 42-31672727+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AUTSA—L 13-20476464-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HJACKSON STATE—W 77-34————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HNEVADA—W 35-242811+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30ASOUTHERN MISS—W 50-36231313+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7ALOUISIANA—L 30-34315353-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HUL MONROE—W 21-201022+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HTROY—L 13-31278181-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 45-24233939+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 23-31394949-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AARKANSAS STATE—L 31-77343737+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 52-44426464-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26ARICE—W 45-21282323+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL45PERF41RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
TJ FINLEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★395100%+12HELD
44
KARSON KAISERQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
CJ ROGERSQB SORET
UNR—00%——
7
PJ HATTERQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB58TAL48PERF58RET17ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
ISMAIL MAHDIRB SEPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
UNR★39751%+24EMERGED
10
DONERIO DAVENPORTRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★37824%+14EMERGED
11
CALVIN HILLRB JURET
★3★3589%-8HELD
5
JAYLEN JENKINSRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3558%+7HELD
28
JAHMYL JETERRB SERET
★3—527%+33—
15
DAMARIUS GOODRB JURET
★3—272%+39—
7
LINCOLN PARERB SERET
★2—00%+13—
20
JOSH BERRYRB JURET
★3★300%+13HELD
30
TRENT LACYRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE39TAL63PERF47RET30ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
KOLE WILSONWR SEPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD
UNR★39928%+2EMERGED
6
ASHTYN HAWKINSWR SERET
UNR★39827%+24EMERGED
10
JOEY HOBERTWR SEPORTAL · UTAH TECH
★3★39422%+30HELD
9
KONNER FOXTE SEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★3★38361%-16HELD
86
TITUS LYONSTE SERET
UNR—6633%-32—
18
DREW DONLEYWR JUPORTAL · CINCINNATI
★3★3648%0HELD
5
SEAN SHAW JR.WR SEPORTAL · IOWA STATE
★3★3617%+20HELD
1
CHRIS DAWN JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—503%+5—
3
BEAU CORRALESWR SEPORTAL · SMU
★3★3442%+8HELD
17
JULIAN ORTEGA-JONESWR SERET
★2★2402%-13HELD
88
JAKE SIMPSONTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—242%——
87
GAGE PATRICKTE SORET
UNR—222%——
13
SHADEED AHMEDWR SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
UNR★2150%-16EMERGED
85
BROOKS MCCOYWR SORET
UNR—100%——
87
CALEB GODFREYTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—81%——
4
MALIK HORNSBYWR JUPORTAL · ARKANSAS
★4★360%—FELL
18
LANGSTON ANDERSONWR SENO SNAPS
★4★460%-25HELD
83
SIMON GONZALEZTE JUPORTAL · SMU
★3★350%—HELD
3
CHARLES BROWNWR SERET
★3—00%+15—
27
KANNON WEBBWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
ISAAC NORRISWR SORET
UNR—00%——
29
BRANDON TREGGSWR SORET
★2—00%——
81
LANDON MARSHWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
13
JOSEPH MORELANDTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
XAVYION NOLANDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
DYLAN RHODESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL47TAL44PERF47RET1n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL63TAL54PERF63RET41n=13 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
▸LB67TAL48PERF67RET54n=6 · 11 METRICS · 33 OBS
▸DB42TAL32PERF42RET28n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS7 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JUSTIN DELEONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JO'LAISON LANDRYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CHRIS DAWN JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BAMI BADUSIHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
PJ HATTERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAKE SIMPSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
AMARION ATWOODHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN18 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALIK HORNSBYARKANSASQB★4★3
DERRICK BROWNTEXASLB★4★3
DANNY VALENZUELAARIZONA STATEIOLUNR★3
BREY WALKEROKLAHOMAIOL★5★3
ALEX HARKEYCOLORADOOTUNR★3
JOSHUA EATONOKLAHOMACBUNR★4
SIMON GONZALEZSMUTE★3★3
CHAYSE TODDHOUSTONIOL★3★3
JOEY HOBERTUTAH TECHWR★3★3
CHRISTIAN RORIEDUKEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KYLE HERGELBOSTON COLLEGEOLUNR★3
DALTON COOPEROKLAHOMA STATEOL★3★4
JARRON MORRISFLORIDA ATLANTICDB★2UNR
DEJORDAN MASKUCFDB★2★3
LAYNE HATCHERBALL STATEQB★3★3
DAVON SEARSOKLAHOMADLUNR★3
KEVIN ANDERSONLAMARS★3UNR
MICAH HILTSSMUTE★2★3
ISSIAH NIXONSAM HOUSTONLB★3★3
RICHARD WESTELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES14%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS40%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#98NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 8 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8470COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3724 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST45% BACK45th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG45% BACK45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST28%28th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE