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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
PAC-12|G.J. KINNE|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
TEXAS STATE72 FPIPAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
45FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
49%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1010 BC / 18
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.5
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE79
PERFORMANCE79
TALENT37
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE24
PERFORMANCE24
TALENT44
CONTINUITY49
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
33MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 52-27321313+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6AUTSA—W 43-36535555-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AARIZONA STATE—L 15-34775656-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HNICHOLLS—W 35-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 4AARKANSAS STATE—L 30-31372626+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HTROY—L 41-48283636+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AMARSHALL—L 37-40363737+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 28HJAMES MADISON#19L 20-5288181-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ALOUISIANA—L 39-42342323+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ASOUTHERN MISS—W 41-14403131+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HUL MONROE—W 31-141044+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HSOUTH ALABAMA—W 49-26261616+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2HRICE—W 41-10231212+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB52TAL27PERF52RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
BRAD JACKSONQB SORET
★3—9399%+38—
6
KELDRIC LUSTERQB JUPORTAL · SMU
★3★3101%—HELD
11
HOLDEN GERINERQB SEPORTAL · AUBURN
★4★300%—FELL
19
NATE YARNELLQB SEPORTAL · PITTSBURGH
★3★300%+11HELD
17
GAVIN PARKHURSTQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB54TAL18PERF54RET74ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
LINCOLN PARERB SERET
★2—9862%+9—
9
GREG BURRELLRB SONO SNAPS
★3★37926%+29HELD
5
JAYLEN JENKINSRB SERET
★3★3547%+7HELD
4
TORRANCE BURGESS JR.RB JURET
UNR★3485%+36EMERGED
21
TAJI ATKINSRB SOPORTAL · RICE
★3★300%+32HELD
20
COLE PRYORRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
26
BRADLEY SOWERSBYRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE43TAL30PERF47RET51ROTATIONn=7 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
BEAU SPARKSWR SERET
UNR★39736%+35EMERGED
1
CHRIS DAWN JR.WR SERET
★3—9230%+32—
86
TITUS LYONSTE SERET
UNR—9144%-33—
16
BLAKE SMITHTE SERET
★3★38029%-16HELD
16
BLAKE SMITHTE SERET
★3★38029%-16HELD
2
KYLEN EVANSWR SORET
★3—7718%+14—
18
TY STAMEYTE JUPORTAL · LOUISIANA
★3★37423%-16HELD
3
MAVIN ANDERSONWR SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
★4★37416%-37FELL
88
JAKE SIMPSONTE JURET
★3—383%——
9
ARVIS BATTLE JR.TE FRTRUE FR
★3—191%——
14
JORDAN MARTINWR SORET
★3—191%——
10
TYRIN SMITHWR SEPORTAL · CINCINNATI
UNR★360%+30EMERGED
16
L.J. JOHNSON JR.WR SOPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★300%—HELD
84
COLE SNODGRASSTE SOPORTAL · TCU
★3★300%—HELD
89
JORDAN WILLIAMSTE SORET
★3—00%——
24
CALEB CARTERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
29
DREW EDWARDSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
TY MIMSWR SEPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS
★3★300%-27HELD
85
SKYLAR LEWISWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
81
JULIUS SPENCERWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
88
TUCKER CUSANOWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
83
JONAH JONESWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
87
KRIS WILLIS JR.WR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL57TAL47PERF57RET64n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL50TAL61PERF50RET50n=10 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB41TAL43PERF41RET44n=8 · 11 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸DB49TAL33PERF50RET47n=12 · 8 METRICS · 65 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TJ BURKHALTERHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAYDEN BRADLEYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
D'ANTE KEYSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TUCKER CUSANOHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SIMEON GARNERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
GREG GIPSON JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SKYLAR LEWISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
GAVIN PARKHURSTHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAVARIUS BELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
AMEER ROSSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DONTERRY RUSSELLMISSISSIPPI STATEEDGE★3★3
NATE YARNELLPITTSBURGHQB★3★3
TYRIN SMITHCINCINNATIWRUNR★3
TY MIMSSOUTHERN MISSWR★3★3
COLE SNODGRASSTCUTE★3★3
HOLDEN GERINERAUBURNQB★4★3
LYSANDER MOEOLOSYRACUSEIOL★3★3
DAVID ABIARASMUEDGE★3★3
MALIK WILLISCAMPBELLCBUNR★3
CHASE DAVISUTAH STATES★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT45 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX HARKEYOREGONOLUNR★4
TERRY WEBBSMUDTUNR★3
TAVIAN COLEMANCOLORADODTUNR★3
MAX HARRISARIZONALBUNR★3
KOLE WILSONBAYLORWRUNR★3
ISMAIL MAHDIARIZONARBUNR★3
DOMINIQUE RATCLIFFINDIANADL★3★3
BEN BELLVIRGINIA TECHDL★3★3
TUNMISE ADELEYEUNLVDL★4★3
TRENTON SCOTTNEVADAOL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES65%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS70%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#101NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8361COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3434 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST79% BACK79th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG79% BACK79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR64%64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST47%47th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE